The Santorum surge

The Republican nomination

Far from uniting behind Mitt Romney, the Republicans may bicker for months

LAS VEGAS |

Next stop, Michigan

LOOKING around at her fellow volunteers making phone calls to voters on behalf of Mitt Romney, Lee Weiss could not help but chuckle. “I’ve never seen such a clean-cut looking crowd,” she said, “and I’m clean-cut looking myself.” Indeed, even though many of them were not Mormon, as Mr Romney is, the people bustling through the temporarily leased factory space in Las Vegas all seemed to be clad in Mormon chic, an immaculate version of business-casual. They also seemed seized by the work ethic of Mormon missionaries, placing their calls relentlessly and with imperturbable good humour. This was the prodigious organisation of the Romney campaign on display.


That particular phone bank, and Mr Romney’s entire machine, was successful in Nevada, where Mr Romney won the Republican caucuses on February 4th (as he had won that state in 2008). But on February 7th, the machine fell badly short, when Rick Santorum, a Catholic conservative on social issues whom gays love to hate, swept all of the three contests held. Most stunningly, these included an upset in Colorado, which was supposed to be similar to Nevada—western and with many Mormons among the Republican voters—and thus a safe bet for Mr Romney.
Mr Santorum, steadily improving as a debater and campaigner, succeeded where Mr Romney has notably failed: in inspiring enthusiasm among voters rather than the establishment. In Minnesota, for example, the ex-governor, Tim Pawlenty, was campaigning for Mr Romney. Mr Romney had easily won the state in 2008, walloping John McCain with 41% of the vote. Nonetheless, Mr Santorum triumphed, and Mr Romney came in a dismal third, with just 17% this time.
The final vote, in Missouri, was admittedly a mere beauty contest, resulting in no delegates being allocated (that will happen, confusingly, at another ballot in March). And Newt Gingrich, the other candidate trying to outflank Mr Romney on the right, was not even on Missouri’s ballot. But Mr Santorum’s victory was decisive here as well, adding to his momentum and probably helping him to raise a lot more money.

More important, this Santorum surge, after his earlier victory (following a recount) in Iowa, is a reminder that Mr Romney has a problem with evangelical and blue-collar conservatives in general, and with the Midwest as a region, an area that includes several crucial swing states. Mr Santorum can now argue that he, rather than Newt Gingrich, is the best conservative alternative to Mr Romney, not least because he has less personal baggage than the thrice-married Mr Gingrich.
Mr Gingrich, by contrast, has a hard February ahead of him. Already in Nevada, he had to dispel rumours that he would drop out of the race, insisting that he would “go to Tampa”—ie, stay in the race and collect delegates until the Republican convention there in August. Indeed, only 219 delegates had been allocated as The Economist went to press, out of 1,144 needed for the nomination. So Mr Gingrich’s strategy is to battle on through the remaining contests in February (Maine, Michigan and Arizona) until Super Tuesday on March 6th, when the race visits several states in the South more amenable to him, including his own former home of Georgia. If he can manage that, he will reach for the big prize of Texas, probably in April.

Explore our interactive map and guide to the race for the Republican candidacy

The contest is thus turning into a nightmare for the party elders. They had begun to unite behind Mr Romney, hoping to focus all attacks on Barack Obama. Instead, Messrs Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, and even Ron Paul, must now attack one another. Many of their one-liners are good, meaning dangerously memorable even in November. Mr Gingrich, for example, delights his crowds by belittling Mr Romney as “little Food Stamp” next to Mr Obama’s “big Food Stamp”; Mr Santorum calls him a “well-oiled weather-vane”.
All this prevents Mr Romney from following his preferred strategy. All along, he has tried to look presidential by attacking Mr Obama rather than other Republicans. But each loss is forcing him to descend into the gutter of attack ads against his Republican rivals. He hopes to do well in the next several contests, from Maine to his native Michigan and Mormon-friendly Arizona. But things are getting ever more ugly.