For months, conservatives have criticized the obviously Democrat-friendly samples used in any number of polls, samples giving Dem respondents anything from a 6 to 13 point edge over the GOP.
The Suffolk University poll of likely Ohio voters uses a voter registration sample of 39% Democrat, 35% Republican, and 27% Independent. But the 4-point advantage for Democrat Party members yields a 3 point advantage in the poll for Mitt Romney, 48-45.
The Monmouth University poll uses a sample of 35 Dem/34 Indep/31 Rep. Here, even Independents outnumber Republicans, and Democrats hold a 4 point edge. Yet the results of the national poll show Romney with a 3 point lead among likely voters, 48-45. Also, though Obama holds a 4 point lead with women voters, he is down dramatically among men at 51-40.
Susquehanna Polling Research conducted a poll in the State of Pennsylvania between October 11th and October 13th. The sample gave Democrats a significant 6 point advantage, 48-42. Independents in this poll accounted for only 10% of respondents. Yet even in this very blue state, Romney was up by 4 points on Obama, 49-45.
The Rasmussen Daily Tracking poll now gives Romney a 4 point lead over Obama, 50-46. It is the first time Romney has broken the 50% barrier and reflects a 2 point improvement from the preceding days. The poll even factors in the 2nd debate, which the mainstream media claimed to have been won in grand fashion by the president. Yet Rasmussen has used a 3 point registration advantage for Democrats for some time. Very interesting in this poll is the measure of party loyalty. Romney will receive the vote of 89% of Republicans while Obama nets the support of just 82% of Democrats.
With just 2 weeks to go until Election Day, Mitt Romney may well begin to pull further away from Obama as legitimate polling firms become more interested in their reputation than in loyalty to a political cause. If Romney’s lead in the Rasmussen Daily poll remains firm, he will be the next president