Associated Press
Virginia Republican Senate candidate George Allen on the campaign trail.
The
Democrats' solution to defense cuts is "to raise taxes," Mr. Allen tells
the group. That's not only using "military men and women" as a
"bargaining chip" for the president's tax hikes, he argues, it's
doubling down on Washington's mistakes. Democrats are offering the
choice of defense-job losses from sequester, or defense-job losses from
taxes. The real way forward, Mr. Allen says, is a better economy, which
will in turn help with deficits.
The audience at this defense roundtable, and others across the state,
are ready for his message. The sequester threatens to hollow out the
military, a huge concern for hundreds of thousands of retired,
active-duty military and civilian personnel in the Hampton Roads area in
the southern part of the state.
Virginia's northern suburbs will meanwhile bear the brunt of the
expected 200,000 cuts in defense-contractor and government jobs. Polls
show Virginia voters are well aware of the sequester and consider it of
major concern.
Nationally, Republicans are working to
pin the blame for this on Mr. Obama. But that has been a tough sell,
given that many congressional Republicans voted for the debt-limit deal
that included the sequester. Mr. Allen is blessed in that regard; he
holds no office and last year quickly branded the debt deal a failure of
Washington. By contrast, Mr. Kaine, also a former Virginia governor,
said in a debate in July that the debt deal had been "the right thing to
do."
Still, Mr. Allen's real traction has not come from affixing blame or
his earlier warnings. Instead, he has been gaining ground by reminding
voters that the Democrats' refusal to prioritize or cut any real
spending is what led to the sequester in the first place. He tells
voters that they are kidding themselves if they think that higher taxes
now will be used to cut the deficit.
There's a better, smarter way, Mr. Allen tells audiences. "I'm for a
balanced approach," he says, impishly alluding to the familiar Obama
line. "We need to cut spending and increase revenues—through economic
growth."
It has helped that Mr. Kaine is helping make the Allen point. Like
Mr. Obama, Mr. Kaine wants this election to be about anything but his
past or the country's future. So he has focused on tarring Mr. Allen as
too extreme on social issues—a message particularly targeted to the
purple Northern Virginia suburbs. Yet the strength of the sequester
issue has forced him, and liberal outside groups, to respond to it.
Mr. Kaine has done so by calling for tax hikes to avoid "devastating
cuts" to defense. In a tacit acknowledgment that President Obama's
$250,000-and-up tax-hike proposal doesn't sit well in many affluent
Northern Virginia households, Mr. Kaine proposes raising tax rates on
incomes above $500,000. He tells audiences that this is a "middle
ground" and the "fiscally responsible" thing to do. Yet it has allowed
the Allen campaign to run ads with a tag noting "Tim Kaine's solution to
every fiscal problem is raise taxes"—reminding voters of the $4 billion
in taxes Mr. Kaine proposed as governor, including a $2 billion
income-tax increase that hit everyone making more than $17,000 a year.
The sequester is also growing as an
issue in the Virginia presidential race. The Obama administration made a
highly political decision to advise defense contractors not to issue
legally required layoff notices for now—in other words, wait until after
the election.
But Wendy Maurer, a board member of the Stafford Economic Development
Authority who works in the defense community, told me that the
sequester was already having a "devastating" effect in her Virginia
county near Washington. Contractors, uncertain of what will come, are
pulling back, she says. Commercial real estate is sitting empty.
Companies aren't hiring. Employees are putting off buying a house or a
car. "If you don't know whether you'll have a job, you hoard money," Ms.
Maurer said.
Whether it is fear of the cuts, or the economic pain, or the tax
argument—the broad Allen sequester point is resonating. The Republican's
growing focus on it (combined with a pro-energy message for Virginia's
coal country) has coincided with his steady climb in polls that had
firmly favored Mr. Kaine for much of the fall. Of the latest two
surveys, Rasmussen had Mr. Kaine up by one point and WeAskAmerica had
him up by five.
Regardless of the outcome in Virginia's
Senate race, Republicans might ruminate on Mr. Allen's approach. If Mr.
Obama wins re-election, he's going to hold the Defense Department
hostage to his tax hikes. The more holistic an argument the GOP makes
about the sequester, taxes, jobs and growth, the better prepared
Republicans will likely be to resist the Obama pressure when it comes.
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