Back from the brink?

After a weekend of violence on the border between Turkey and Kurdish-controlled Iraq, a ceasefire may be in the offing

TURKEY said it would give diplomacy another chance after a deadly weekend clash with rebels of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) that left at least 12 Turkish soldiers dead and 16 others wounded. The attack on Sunday October 21st, the most audacious in recent memory, raised fears that Turkey would retaliate by sending its army in pursuit of the rebels, who are based inside Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq. That might touch off a wider conflagration pitting the Turks against Iraqi Kurds, and, possibly, even Americans in Iraq.

“We will try all diplomatic means before carrying out any military operation,” said Ali Babacan, the Turkish foreign minister, during a visit to Kuwait on Monday. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister, indicated earlier that he had put off a decision on how to react after an appeal from Condoleezza Rice, America's secretary of state. America has long discouraged Turkey from crossing the border, saying this would destabilise the only calmish bit of the country. On Monday the office of Iraq's president, Jalal Talabani, who is also a Kurd, said the rebels would announce a ceasefire later that day.

A large-scale invasion in any case looked unlikely, as even Turkey's hawkish generals fear getting bogged down across the border and seeing their army's prestige suffer. But a clamour for some sort of intervention—perhaps aerial bombardment of PKK targets—had been growing along with the number of attacks on Turkish soldiers. News that the rebels had taken eight soldiers hostage during Sunday's clashes has worsened a sense of impotence in Turkey. “There are tanks, cannons, soldiers, but no political will,” screamed the headlines of Yeni Cag, an ultra-nationalist daily. Thousands of Turks waving Turkish flags and chanting patriotic slogans took to the streets in towns and cities across the country for a second day, on Monday, to protest against the PKK.

Worryingly, anger might yet erupt into sectarian strife. On Monday protesters in two cities attacked the local headquarters of the largest pro-Kurdish group in Turkey, the Democratic Society Party. That will probably encourage the PKK, which appears to be escalating its violent campaign in a bid to remain relevant after Mr Erdogan had some success in marginalising the rebel group. After taking office five years ago, pledging to lead Turkey into the European Union, he became the first Turkish leader to admit that the state had made “mistakes” in its dealings with the Kurds. Under his rule Kurds have seen some moderate gains, for example being given permission to study their mother tongue, albeit in private language courses not in state run schools.

At the same time Mr Erdogan has overseen the provision of funds to social-welfare schemes in impoverished Kurdish provinces, where his Islamic credentials have helped win him, and his ruling Justice and Development (AK) party, popularity. In elections in July the AK saw a dramatic increase in its share of the vote in the Kurdish region. In one of his boldest statements yet, Mr Erdogan said on Friday that the rebels should set down their guns and seek their rights “inside the Turkish parliament.”

“The PKK is trying to lure Turkey into northern Iraq, and we must not walk into this trap,” suggests a senior AK official. Some conspiracy theorists argue, however, that Turkey's real target are the Kurds of northern Iraq. Their steady march towards quasi-independence has deepened concerns that they will become a magnet for Turkey's 14m or so Kurds. A cross-border operation against the PKK, this theory runs, would help to unravel the Iraqi Kurds' experiment in self rule.

Iraqi Kurdish leaders may have now tightened the screws on the PKK, pushing the rebels to declare a ceasefire. For Mr Talabani in Iraq this would not be a matter of handing over PKK leaders to Turkey, but he, and the Americans, would like to see a negotiated end to the violence.