Forbes '08 Tracker: November

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has surged to the front of the list of all 15 presidential candidates, staging his biggest one-month jump since the Forbes '08 Tracker presidential poll was launched in April.

The November edition of the Tracker shows Giuliani tied for overall appeal at 43% with Fred Thompson, the former Republican Senator and actor. Thompson's total awareness did jump from October to 52% of those polled, from 46%, but remains substantially below Giuliani's, since 83% of those polled were aware of Giuliani's candidacy. At the same time, Thompson's overall appeal slid to its lowest level since the poll was launched--down 8 points to 43% over last month.

The biggest gainers in overall appeal were among those candidates with the narrowest awareness among our population. The appeal of Bill Richardson, the Democratic governor of New Mexico, surged 12 points to 36%, just ahead of Republican Ron Paul, whose appeal score moved up four points to 35%. But in each case, just 15% of those polled recognized the candidate.

In Pictures: Most Appealing Candidates For November

The category of total appeal is a solid indication of how attractive a candidate is as a presidential contender. In this monthly study, 46 different attributes are examined by Forbes.com and its partner, California-based e-Poll Market Research. Neither Forbes.com nor e-Poll defines any of the 46 attributes on which it polls its sample population--the same traits it has used to select high-level spokespeople for e-Poll's own advertising campaigns for more than a decade.

Politics--like selling cars, television shows or any other product--has become a complex marketing process. The 46 attributes help define trends and key drivers of what moves a person to respond or react to the message and the messenger. In this case, the candidate's name is given to the polled population, which is then asked to match any one of the attributes it believes is appropriate for the candidate in question.

The concept of appeal is the closest the Forbes '08 Tracker will come to any sort of head-to-head popularity poll of the various announced and unannounced contenders. The one caveat is that it's still early in the process, so some potentially highly visible--even appealing--candidates have not yet begun to weigh in with big media buys that could raise their scores sharply.

The methodology polls a cross-section of Americans of voting age, asking first their awareness of each candidate, then their overall appeal, and finally asks those polled to attribute whichever of the 46 traits selected by e-Poll they feel describes that candidate.

Losing ground this month was Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., whose appeal score moved down three points to 33%, though she maintains the highest awareness of any candidate. Some 93% of those polled recognized she is a presidential contender. But her overall appeal is now behind that of her principal Democratic rival, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., who moved up four points to 38%, and John Edwards, the former vice presidential candidate, who edged up a point to 34%.

The top Democratic prospect remains Al Gore, whose total appeal edged up three points in November to 39%--possibly a result of the announcement that he had been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his work on global warming and the environment. Still, Gore continues to maintain a stony silence on the question of whether he will actually stand for president. Many close to the former presidential candidate do not believe he will enter the '08 race.

Among the candidates who continue to fade in the polls are Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., who slid three points to 30% in the past month, former Massachusetts Republican Gov. Mitt Romney, off two points to 28%, Sen. Joseph Biden, D-Del., off two points to 25%, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, still undeclared, but a possible Independent candidate, who slid six points to 24% in overall appeal, Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, off 5 points to 20% and Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., down three points to just 17%.

Overall, among the six Republicans, eight Demcorats and one possible Independent, there are six gainers in total appeal in November over October, while eight have lost ground and one is unchanged.