March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke bucked investors' bets on a deeper interest-rate cut without spoiling the biggest U.S. stock-market rally in five years.
Policy makers yesterday lowered their benchmark rate by 0.75 percentage point, falling short of traders' bets for at least a full percentage point. The Federal Open Market Committee, in its announcement, left the door open for further reductions. At the same time, it restored language saying inflation has picked up.
``The Fed still has its primary focus on growth and the threat to growth from markets,'' said James O'Sullivan, a senior economist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. ``This is still a huge move,'' given that Alan Greenspan, Bernanke's predecessor, never lowered rates more than a half-point at a single meeting, O'Sullivan said.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed 4.2 percent yesterday to 1,330.74, the most since October 2002. The dollar, which fell to a 12-year low a day earlier, staged its biggest rally against the yen in nine years after the decision. Treasury notes declined.
The regular meeting came two days after emergency moves to lower the discount rate by a quarter-point and become a lender of last resort for the biggest Wall Street dealers. Bernanke, 54, and his colleagues have spent the past week striving to prevent a global financial-market meltdown after a run on Bear Stearns Cos.
`Pretty Gutsy'
``It's in some sense pretty gutsy'' to cut rates less than investors anticipated ``at a time when market expectations are so fragile,'' said Brian Sack, a former Fed researcher who is now senior economist at Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in Washington.
``The FOMC has been prioritizing financial-stability and growth risks over inflation risks,'' Sack said. ``But the statement reminded us that the inflation risks are part of the policy decisions as well.''
Sack and former Fed Governor Laurence Meyer, vice chairman at Macroeconomic Advisers, had forecast a full percentage-point reduction.
Yesterday's move brought the benchmark overnight interbank lending rate to 2.25 percent after a cumulative 3 percentage points of cuts since September.
While the decrease was smaller than traders and some economists expected, the move and the Jan. 22 cut by 0.75 percentage point are the largest reductions in the federal funds rate since it became the chief tool of monetary policy about two decades ago.
European Shares
Stock markets in the U.S. may not maintain their rally today. In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index fell 1 percent as of 11:47 a.m. in London, giving up an earlier gain of as much as 1.1 percent. The FTSE 100 index lost 0.7 percent and futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 index in the U.S. slipped 0.4 percent.
The dollar fell against the euro, weakening to $1.5696 per euro from $1.5625 and erasing most of yesterday's gains. It declined to 99.07 yen from 99.85 yen.
The decision and statement may have resulted in part from a compromise between Bernanke and officials who wanted smaller rate cuts, including two who dissented.
Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher and Charles Plosser, president of the Philadelphia Fed, rebelled, preferring a ``less aggressive'' move. It's the first time two policy makers have broken with Bernanke publicly and the fifth straight FOMC rate move in which Bernanke has failed to achieve unanimity.
Plosser's Dissent
Plosser's dissent is the first for the former University of Rochester economist, who joined the Fed in 2006 and has taken some of the toughest anti-inflation views among policy makers. Plosser, 59, is a voting FOMC member for the first time this year. It's the second straight opposing vote for the 59-year-old Fisher, a former deputy U.S. trade representative in the Clinton administration.
``When inflation gets unanchored, and the long bond market goes up, that's going to really hurt longer-term investment and the recovery in the mortgage markets, which are the root cause of this recession,'' former Fed Governor Susan Bies said in an interview yesterday with Bloomberg Television.
Such concerns may have been a factor in bringing back language noting that price increases have ``been elevated'' and saying that ``some indicators of inflation expectations have risen.'' The Fed's preferred price gauge, which excludes food and energy, has for three months run above the 2 percent upper band of officials' long-term inflation projections.
Monitor Inflation
In the previous statement, on Jan. 30, the Fed said only that it ``expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, but it will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.'' The Fed reiterated those points yesterday. Bernanke and Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, in remarks last month, played down inflation concerns and focused on risks to growth.
``Certainly the Fed's concerns about inflation have increased even as they cut rates aggressively,'' said Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. ``It didn't prevent them from doing a large rate cut, but they have taken note of the rise in inflation expectations.''
Yesterday's statement nods to Fed actions over the past two weeks to ease credit-market strains, saying that the rate cut, ``combined with those taken earlier, including measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate the risks to economic activity.''
Earlier this month, the Fed said it would lend $200 billion in Treasuries to dealers and add another $200 billion through auctions of funds and repurchase agreements.
Bernanke sent investors a message that ``We're in control,'' said Paul Lennox, treasurer of Custom House Ltd., a Victoria, British Columbia-based firm that specializes in global foreign exchange. ``We're coming to an end. Don't rely on us to keep cutting rates.''
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