Colombia and its neighbours

Peace in our time, on the box

But it may well prove to be as phoney as the war

A WEEK after it began, the diplomatic and military stand-off between Colombia and its neighbours ended in scenes reminiscent of a Latin-American soap opera. At a summit on March 7th in Santo Domingo, the capital of the Dominican Republic, transmitted live throughout the region, Colombia's president, Álvaro Uribe, managed to restore diplomatic relations with Ecuador, Venezuela and Nicaragua. Relations had been severed after he ordered a bombing raid on a FARC guerrilla camp just inside Ecuador.

After reiterating his apology for violating Ecuadorian sovereignty, Mr Uribe went on to condemn the crimes being committed in Colombia by what he called “the sinister terrorists” of the FARC, whom his three neighbours view as closer to freedom fighters. Hugo Chávez, Venezuela's president, responded with a conciliatory speech, backing down from earlier talk of war. Mr Uribe took this as his cue to circle the conference room, shaking hands and slapping backs. Even a scowling Rafael Correa, Ecuador's president, agreed to declare an end to hostilities. And, in a remarkably harmonious exchange, Mr Uribe and Nicaragua's president, Daniel Ortega, seemed to resolve their bilateral differences in about 90 seconds flat.

If it seems too good to be true, it probably is. The peace will surely prove as phoney as the “war” that preceded it, which featured both Ecuador and Venezuela moving troops to their borders with Colombia. Many Colombians reckon it is Messrs Chávez and Correa who should be apologising: the contents of three laptop computers allegedly belonging to the FARC leader, Raúl Reyes, killed in Colombia's raid on the rebel camp, appear to confirm that Venezuela and Ecuador had close political contacts—or worse—with the FARC, an unreconstructed Marxist group involved in kidnapping and drug-trafficking, which both the European Union and the United States class as a terrorist group.

Mr Chávez, who recently called for the FARC to be recognised as legitimate belligerents protected under the Geneva Conventions, described Mr Reyes's killing as a “cowardly murder”. But he failed to win support at home and elsewhere in the region for his decision to wade into what was an essentially bilateral incident. Brazil's president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, for example, did not accept or return several phone calls from Mr Chávez during the stand-off. Venezuela and its allies have denied giving aid and comfort to the guerrillas, and Mr Chávez has claimed credit for “restoring peace to South America”. But the underlying conflict remains.

For Mr Uribe, the information reportedly found on the computers (to be examined by experts from Interpol) is a precious gift. He has agreed not to use it (as he had first threatened) to substantiate a case against Mr Chávez before the International Criminal Court. But many observers believe it was the strong hand this dealt him in Santo Domingo, rather than any real vocation for peace on the part of his neighbours, that brought about the climb-down.

Among the juicy titbits allegedly found on the computers are a $20,000 campaign contribution from the FARC to Rafael Correa; a putative deal between the rebels and Mr Chávez that would have netted them $300m and several hundred used rifles; and attempts by the FARC to obtain uranium for a “dirty bomb” and surface-to-air missiles to neutralise Colombia's helicopter fleet—a crucial weapon in the army's recent successes against the guerrillas. Mr Reyes is also said to have recorded his thoughts on how hostage releases, co-ordinated with Mr Chávez and a Colombian senator, would help them all politically.

Within days of killing Mr Reyes, the government had another stroke of luck: Iván Ríos, a second member of the FARC's seven-man commanding secretariat, was killed, this time by his own bodyguard. After taking Mr Ríos's passport, ID card and another computer, as well as chopping off his victim's hand to prove his death, the bodyguard carted his trophy to the nearest army post and gave himself up.

This incident is potentially even more serious for the FARC than Mr Reyes's death. The computer contained much less explosive material, though it did give details of a planned attack on the Medellín metro. But the effect on guerrilla morale of such high-level betrayal could be devastating. The guerrillas are already on the defensive, and if desertions were to spread, the retreat could become a rout.

Meanwhile, the Organisation of American States (OAS) has set up an inquiry into the Colombia/Ecuador border incident. But its decision not to tackle head-on the issue of the alleged computer data, pleading lack of expertise, suggests that it is unwilling to go to the heart of the problem in the region. Laura Gil, an international-relations consultant in Bogotá, deems the reconciliation to be “very fragile”.

Some kind of multilateral border-verification mission will be required to prevent further incidents. Ecuador has suggested that UN peacekeeping troops be brought in, and Mr Uribe has not rejected the idea, though the OAS secretary-general, José Miguel Insulza, reckons it would be “very difficult” to achieve.

Having emerged, so far, with little more than a slap on the wrist after a highly risky and controversial operation, Mr Uribe is ahead on points. He is unlikely to risk another such raid. But the fault-line running through the Andes seems bound to produce more tremors before long.