Zimbabwe

By hook or by crook in Zimbabwe?

Zimbabwe’s opposition declares victory. But official results are delayed, amid accusations of rigging

DESPERATE to avoid having a victory stolen from them, again, the leaders of Zimbabwe’s opposition, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), have declared themselves the winners of general elections held on Saturday March 29th. Their declaration may well be justified, but it is premature and likely to be overruled.

The MDC says that its leader and presidential candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai, was ahead in the race for the presidency. The MDC has tallied results that were posted outside polling stations in some parts of the country, especially in the urban areas where the opposition is strong. The party claims that it did similarly well in the parliamentary election, for example bagging most of the seats in Harare and Bulawayo, the country’s two main cities. A rival opposition movement led by a former ally of President Robert Mugabe, Simba Makoni, whose impact appears to have been limited on the presidential race, also suggests that the MDC has “swept the board”, in the parliamentary elections at least.

But those running Zimbabwe’s elections have allowed a long delay before declaring the official outcome. Results are yet to be announced from some parts of the rural areas and, it is widely assumed, officials loyal to the ruling ZANU-PF party of Mr Mugabe are arranging some way to keep their man in office. The opposition claims are based on partial results, mainly from towns. The few results from the countryside, where the ruling party usually dominates, suggest that the outcome will be much closer. Officials have given warning to the opposition not to jump the gun. The government’s main spokesman, George Charamba, has compared the MDC’s claims of victory to a “coup”.

The voting was not without problems. Some complained of being turned away from polling stations at schools, marquees and community halls because of irregularities on the voters’ roll. The MDC said that its official observers were sometimes denied entry to polling stations. Concern about intimidation arose because policemen, for the first time, were deployed inside polling stations. But one fear, that voters in densely-populated opposition strongholds would not have time to cast ballots, seemed unfounded. In some places determined voters had started queuing the night before to be ready to cast ballots from 7am, but long lines that were apparent in the morning had largely dissipated by the afternoon.

Another worry, that “ghost” voters would inflate support for Mr Mugabe and the ruling party, seemed more justified. About 5.9m voters were registered in about 9,000 polling stations, some in remote or sparsely-populated areas that were hard for the opposition or monitors to visit. Western journalists and observers were barred from the country, but African monitors raised concerns over irregularities in the voters’ roll: in Harare for example, about 8,500 voters were registered with addresses that turned out to be vacant land. The opposition complained that 3m extra ballot papers had been printed. As was typical in other rigged elections in Zimbabwe, rivals to Mr Mugabe were only handed the voters’ roll just before election day.

It is in the counting and tallying, however, that most feared that rigging would take place. After voting closed on Saturday the counting began at polling stations, with some officials working by candlelight or kerosene lamps. Official results, however, were to be announced centrally—leaving officials scope to tamper with the overall score to favour Mr Mugabe. The opposition suggests that delays are a sign that results from polling stations, especially in remote areas, are being massaged as they are collated centrally.

The army and the police are also on the streets and have given warning that any violence would not be tolerated. In any case Mr Mugabe says he is confident of another victory and he has dismissed accusations of rigging. “Why should I cheat? The people are there supporting us, day in, day out,” he says. Ahead of the poll, he was in a generous mood, distributing tractors and ploughs in rural areas. It seems most unlikely that a majority voters would want to keep Mr Mugabe as their president, given the country’s economic collapse, plummeting life expectancy and mass emigration. Rough opinion polls organised in the weeks before the election suggested that, if all were free and fair, Mr Tsvangirai should have won, with Mr Mugabe second and Mr Makoni a distant third. If none were to get more than 50% in the first round, a second round would be held. Whether the official results come anywhere close to that suggested reality, however, remains to be seen.