April 14 (Bloomberg) -- Silvio Berlusconi held a narrow lead in the vote count from the Italian elections that may not be enough for him to gain control of both houses of parliament, early projections showed.
Berlusconi's People of Liberty party and its allies took 42 percent of the vote for the Chamber of Deputies compared with 40 percent for Walter Veltroni's Democratic Party and its partner, according to a first projection for SkyTG24 television by the Consortium polling company. That's less than the lead of 6 to 9 percentage points Berlusconi, a billionaire media mogul, held in the final pre-election opinion polls published two weeks ago.
Berlusconi's bloc led in voting for the Senate, the upper house, by 44.9 percent to 38.2 percent, with a 2 percentage- point margin of error, according to a projection by Consortium for RAI state television. A separate estimate by Ipsos for TG4 television, run by Berlusconi's Mediaset SpA, put Berlusconi 9.1 points ahead.
The bloc winning the popular vote for the Chamber of Deputies is guaranteed a majority in the house. Seats in the Senate are divided up on a regional basis. That leaves open the possibility that Veltroni's alliance may win a majority in the upper house, leaving control of parliament split.
``It's impossible to know how the seats will be distributed for the parties in the Senate with these numbers,'' said Roberto D'Alimonte, a professor of politics and specialist on electoral systems at the University of Florence. ``It's too early to say who's going to win it.''
Tax, Spending
Elections to choose Italy's 62nd government since World War II were called three years early after Prime Minister Romano Prodi's government collapsed in January. Berlusconi, 71, has promised to revive economic growth with tax cuts and more spending on public works. Veltroni has also pledged lower taxes.
``The exit polls are more inclined to favor the left-wing parties because they tend to be more sincere in answering, and if that were the case, the gap could actually be wider in favor of Berlusconi,'' said Giorgio Mascherone, chief investment officer at Deutsche Bank in Milan, in a Bloomberg Television interview.
If Berlusconi wins a majority of seats in both houses of parliament, he'll take over a $2.4 trillion economy on the cusp of recession. Gross domestic product is set to lag behind the European Union average for a 13th year, the budget deficit is widening and consumer confidence has slipped to a four-year low.
Slowest Growth
The International Monetary Fund forecast April 9 that the Italian economy, Europe's fourth biggest, would expand just 0.3 percent this year, the slowest of the more than two dozen ``advanced economies'' included in its World Economic Outlook report. Italy is the euro region's most-indebted country and ranks last in labor productivity in the 30-member Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Berlusconi, Italy's third-richest man, entered politics 14 years ago promising to bring about an economic miracle. In his last stint as prime minister between 2001 and 2006, the country slipped into recession three times, the budget deficit rose to the highest in the European Union and debt increased. Now Berlusconi says he can't ``perform miracles'' and will be forced to make ``tough and unpopular decisions.''
``Cutting taxes is essential to boost productivity, consumer and business confidence,'' Francesco Perfetti, a professor of politics at Rome's Luiss University, told Bloomberg Television. ``The problem is that neither Veltroni nor Berlusconi have said how they will fund that.''
`Turn the Page'
Berlusconi's 52-year-old rival Veltroni, the former Rome mayor, painted himself as the candidate of change even though outgoing Prime Minister Prodi, who had just a 30 percent popularity rating in December, is the president of his party. In his final campaign rally in Rome's Piazza del Popolo Veltroni called on Italians to ``turn the page'' on the aging political class represented by Berlusconi.
Senate seats are distributed in relation to regional voting results rather than nationally. Parties that win as little as 8 percent of the regional vote are awarded seats in the Senate, which subtracts from the take by the main parties.
The system, introduced by Berlusconi in 2005, tends to produce narrow majorities in the Senate. While the winner of the national popular vote is granted bonus seats in the Chamber of Deputies, Senate bonuses are awarded separately in the regional contests, and then only in 17 of the 20 regions. The extra seats gained by the competing parties there can thus cancel each other out.
At the same time as the parliamentary elections, there was voting for eight provincial governments and 423 city governments, including that of Rome, the capital. Sicilians and residents of Friuli Venezia Giulia also chose regional governments.
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