Paraguay's elections

Liberation politics

After 61 years, Paraguay may finally see a change of government

IF THE poll numbers hold, the world's longest-ruling political party will be dismissed by Paraguay's voters on Sunday April 20th. The Colorado Party, which came to power two years before China's Communist Party, has governed for so long that Paraguay sometimes feels like a run-down country club that exists purely for the benefit of party members. Yet despite fielding a good candidate, the Colorados could well lose to a complete political novice.

Their main opponent is Fernando Lugo, a Catholic bishop who gave up his job preaching liberation theology to the poor in order to stand for office. In person, he is rather less charismatic than his story suggests. But since being chosen as the figurehead for a coalition of the biggest opposition parties, he has turned into a formidable candidate. Those close to him say he has struggled to switch from officiating at mass to talking confidently about fixing Paraguay. But he has cut his hair, had his teeth polished and embodies a fresh start—unlike his two main rivals.

For in addition to the Colorado candidate, Mr Lugo faces Lino Oviedo, a former general accused of planning a coup in 1996 and of being involved in the assassination of Paraguay's vice-president in 1999. After two spells in jail and five years in exile (in Argentina and Brazil), Mr Oviedo, a Colorado presidential candidate in 1998, re-emerged last September as another champion of the poor. Now candidate of the National Union of Ethical Citizens, he looks set to do well, though the presidency is probably beyond his grasp.

Meanwhile, the Colorados are wondering where they went wrong. Their candidate, Blanca Ovelar, a former teacher, education minister and basketball player, is reckoned to be the best they have produced for a long time. She has a powerful party machine behind her. And Paraguay's economy grew by 5.5% last year, its best rate for over a decade. Yet the party has not capitalised on its good fortune. This is partly due to the strange behaviour of the outgoing president, Nicanor Duarte Frutos. His attacks on the press for perceived bias, and on agri-business for making too much money, have sounded bitter. Some of his outbursts have just been plain odd: at one recent event, he mentioned the word “masturbation” seven times.

As the election draws closer, worries about fraud are increasing. Juan Carlos Cabezudo, a Patria Querida Party candidate for Congress, says his party has so far identified 25,000 people on the electoral register who are either dead, in jail, in the army or living abroad, and who therefore should be disqualified from voting. The electoral tribunal that oversees elections is dominated by the Colorado Party.

If Mr Lugo does win, he will seek to renegotiate the revenues Paraguay receives from Itaipu, a big hydro-electric dam built jointly with Brazil. Under the terms of the contract, Paraguay has to sell any unused electricity to Brazil at a fraction of the current market price. Unsurprisingly, Brazil has no plans to renegotiate it. Behind the scenes, Mr Lugo's team are therefore working on a subtler approach that involves presenting their man as a disciple of Brazil's president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who would spend increased revenues from the dam on the kind of social measures that Brazil has already implemented.

A President Lugo would find himself pulled in different directions by ruthless political operators on the one hand and small far-left parties on the other. When combined with his lack of experience, this could be a disastrous mixture. The Liberal Party, the dominant partner in his coalition, hopes to save him from doing anything too rash. But perhaps a little rashness is just what Paraguay needs if it is ever to get rid of the Colorados.