Pennsylvania primary

The push in Pennsylvania

Hillary Clinton bids to stay in the race

THE Democratic primary season, which has provided such a riveting race between Barack Obama (leading in votes and delegates) and Hillary Clinton (winner of the bigger states), springs back to life with the Pennsylvania primary on Tuesday April 22nd. It is seven weeks since the last big contest and the two candidates have ground out their campaigns in Pennsylvania. The contest had drifted, in the final days at least, towards the dreary sort of politics that risks turning voters off.

The campaign was not enlivened by local conditions. Pennsylvania, rich with delegates, suffered as America shed heavy-manufacturing jobs in recent years. Thus the candidates competed to see who could bash trade the harder. Both looked opportunistic. Mrs Clinton is a centrist who backed Bill Clinton’s support for NAFTA in the 1990s, and Mr Obama has supported other trade deals.

Matters grew ugly after Mr Obama made some ill-chosen comments at a fundraiser in San Francisco. When he said that small-town Americans who had lost their jobs “cling” to religion, guns or immigrant-bashing, he was criticised as elitist. The competition to see who was most in touch with America’s small towns and heartland values heated up in a debate last Wednesday, when Mr Obama was asked “do you believe in the flag?”. Perhaps as a result, Mr Obama's popularity has been slipping. A recent nationwide poll for Gallup suggests that Mr Obama’s lead over Mrs Clinton, which had been as high as 11-points on April 15th had all but disappeared within five days.

He tried to shake off the debate with jokes just after the debate (his supporters were riled up by the tone of the questions, which could lift their turnout on primary day). Last week Philadelphia’s main newspaper, the Inquirer, endorsed him, completing his run of almost all the big papers in the state. He began running a barrage of television adverts, where he has an advantage thanks to his prodigious fundraising. And on Friday he held the biggest rally yet of his campaign, in Philadelphia. Some 35,000 supporters attended.

Nor did Mrs Clinton let up for a moment. A series of attack adverts against Mr Obama forced him to respond in kind. His campaign calls her a “slash-and-burn” operator, representing the sort of old politics that he wants to change. But many voters will simply see conventional political point-scoring, which dulls Mr Obama’s edge as a new type of politician.

The party’s nervousness about the long, drawn-out battle is increasing. Both Mrs Clinton and Mr Obama have seen their “negative” opinion-poll ratings go up, while John McCain is able to campaign almost unmolested. The two Democrats do take the occasional shot, but Mrs Clinton, in particular, is more focused on her party rival. Howard Dean, the party chairman, showed his anxiety last week when he said that undecided “superdelegates” need to commit “starting now”.

What effect will Pennsylvania have? If Mr Obama should defy polls—which on average show his opponent ahead by five to six points—and win, Mrs Clinton will almost certainly drop out of the race. If she wins narrowly, or only by that margin of five or six points, superdelegates may look at the delegate maths and a smiling Mr McCain, and heed Mr Dean’s command to start committing. But if Mrs Clinton wins handsomely—near double-digits or more—she will keep the campaign going, and many superdelegates may want to hear her out. So the long primary season could continue until the last vote, on June 3rd.