The Caucasus

Bang bang, who’s dead?

Sabre-rattling continues in a dangerous corner of Europe

IF IT is not the prelude to a real war, it risks being mistaken for one—and in a corner of Europe where Western and Russian interests could clash nastily. The talk of war has been in the air for months. But in the past two weeks six people have been killed in the breakaway (and Russian-backed) region of South Ossetia.

Claim and counterclaim abound. Russia says that Georgia fired first and is reinforcing its forces as a prelude to war. It sent warplanes into Georgian airspace last month—to deter an attack, it said. It also blames Georgian warplanes for violating South Ossetian airspace. Georgia says this is disinformation: Russia and its South Ossetian allies “are trying to create an alternative reality”, says a spokesman. Georgia has brought foreign ambassadors to inspect its lightly armed guard posts which, it insists, fire only in self-defence. This is by no means the first skirmish in the region. Georgian and South Ossetian politicians wrangled about a possible meeting on August 7th aimed at calming the mood.

But the row has given Russia a chance to step up pressure on Georgia, portrayed in the Russian media as a tiresome and aggressive Western stooge. The South Ossetian leader, Eduard Kokoity, said that he would force Georgian forces out of his self-declared republic (which is a patchwork of villages and small towns, some controlled by Georgian authorities and others by separatists). He says 300 Russian irregulars have come to his aid.

The quarrel in South Ossetia follows an escalation of tension in the other breakaway region of Georgia, Abkhazia. Russia has reinforced its military presence there, which is nominally part of a UN-monitored peacekeeping effort. A German-drafted peace plan for the economic revival of Abkhazia, indefinite autonomy and the return of Georgian refugees has so far stalled. The Abkhaz authorities are uneasy about the Russian embrace, but fear the return of ethnic Georgian refugees, once the largest ethnic group in the region.

The Kremlin’s immediate aim seems to be to force Georgia to return to the Joint Control Commission in South Ossetia. This body comprises Georgia, Russia, South Ossetia and the Russian republic of North Ossetia, just across the border, with the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), a Vienna-based multilateral body, as an observer. Georgia thinks that this is intolerably unbalanced and has walked out.

Russia also wants Georgia to give a formal guarantee that it will not use force in either breakaway region. Georgia thinks that unless its refugees can return this would amount to de facto recognition of the secessionists. It wants a stronger OSCE presence, demilitarisation, and international (not Russian) peacekeepers. It also wants joint Georgian-Russian control of the Roki tunnel under the Caucasus mountains. This, Georgia says, is used both for smuggling and for illegal reinforcements to South Ossetia.

Russia’s broader aim may be to try to roll back the advance of pro-Western forces in its “near abroad” by highlighting the West’s inability to help Georgia. The hotting up of Georgia’s conflicts coincided with Kosovo’s declaration of independence, recognised by much of the West, and American pressure for the expansion of NATO to Georgia and Ukraine.

That move has been stymied, mainly by Germany; Georgia was promised eventual NATO membership but no firm plan. Though Georgia has become a vital corridor for oil and gas exports to Europe, this has not brought the support that its leaders had expected. A lame-duck American administration has been able to do little, though Georgians hope a presidential-election victory by John McCain, an ardent supporter, may change their fortunes. The country’s strong-willed and idiosyncratic president, Mikheil Saakashvili, is not seen by all European leaders as quite the paragon of legality, freedom and reform that he claims to be. Georgia’s image was severely dented in November last year by a crackdown against the opposition.

Georgia is in a quandary: its Western friends tell it to stay calm yet seem unable to stop Russian bullying. It is all too easy to imagine misjudgements on either side leading to a real war. Georgian officials will spend August nervously at their desks. Some of their European counterparts may have other plans. As the recipients of an often daily blizzard of alarms and appeals from Georgia, they think that a summer break might be just the ticket.

European security

Redrawing the MAP in Europe

Germany is up, and Russia in. What will America do in eastern Europe?

THE job of NATO used to be straightforward: keep the Americans in, the Germans down and the Russians out. These days things are less certain. A week after the alliance's acrimonious summit in Bucharest, and an inconclusive follow-up meeting between presidents George Bush and Vladimir Putin to discuss anti-missile defences, NATO's future role in Europe's security seems particularly unclear.

The most controversial question for the coming months, even years, will be how far the alliance should expand; in particular whether it should take in Ukraine and Georgia. At NATO's summit in Bucharest, Germany's chancellor, Angela Merkel, led the resistance to an American-led move to grant the two countries the next step to membership—known as the Membership Action Plan (MAP). NATO postponed the issue to a meeting of foreign ministers in December, or perhaps to its 60th anniversary summit in April next year. Or perhaps, given that Mr Bush's successor will still be getting his team in place, a decision may be delayed for much longer.

On one reading of events, this expansion of NATO is a mere formality. Ukraine and Georgia claim to be delighted with the summit communiqué, which said firmly: “These countries will become members of NATO”. Without a date for MAP, however, this promise may mean less than it seems.

The fallout in Ukraine has been limited so far. Only a minority of the public supports NATO membership. That is one reason why the alliance is chary of issuing a firm invitation. The government in Kiev says it will concentrate on making the case for NATO and pushing ahead with the less controversial bid to seek an association agreement with the European Union, which it hopes to secure in September. Ukraine's leaders also still have plenty to do to convince other NATO countries that they both meet the criteria and really want to join the alliance—something that is bound to bring a big political cost in relations with the Kremlin.

Yuri Luzhkov, the mayor of Moscow, said that Russia should punish Ukraine for even trying to join NATO. According to a Russian newspaper report, Mr Putin lost his temper with Mr Bush at a meeting on the final day of the Bucharest summit, telling him: “Do you understand, George, that Ukraine is not even a state.” Claiming that most of Ukraine's territory was “given away” by Russia, Mr Putin supposedly also said that if the country joined NATO it would “cease to exist”. A Kremlin spokesman at the meeting says he did not hear the exchange. Still, intemperate language from Russia may stiffen Ukrainian resolve to move closer to the West.

In Georgia, the authorities complain that Russia is accelerating the “creeping annexation” of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, breakaway regions that maintain an unrecognised independence, backed by the Kremlin. On the day of the summit decision, Mr Putin sent a letter to the secessionist leaders promising that Russia would “further widen and deepen its all-embracing practical co-operation”.

Georgia fears that the price of NATO membership may be the permanent loss of Abkhazia, in particular, from which the 250,000-strong majority ethnic Georgian population fled in 1993. One worry is how Mikheil Saakashvili, the impetuous Georgian president, will handle the Abkhaz issue. Another is the upcoming Georgian parliamentary elections in May, in which Mr Saakashvili's clannish supporters are battling a hot-headed opposition. A fairly-counted poll, and a calm approach to Abkhazia, may help to allay fears in NATO countries, particularly Germany, about Georgia's suitability for membership.

Over to EU?

Indecision in NATO leaves plenty of room for the European Union. But the EU shows little sign so far of wanting to take the lead in the continent's security policy—for example in reaching out to Ukraine. It is still struggling to digest its most recent expansion to Romania and Bulgaria—countries that seem to be going backwards rather than forwards on issues such as the rule of law and organised crime. This week the European Commission reiterated that Bulgaria needs to tackle gangsterism and corruption. Despite 150 assassinations since 2001, nobody has been convicted, nor has any senior Bulgarian official successfully been prosecuted for corruption.

The other big issue is America's planned missile defence bases: ten interceptor rockets in Poland and a radar in the Czech Republic. In its dying months, the Bush administration is keen to settle the issue with Russia, but has so far been unable to do so. It has offered several “transparency” measures—such as a promise not to switch on the system until a threat (from Iran) emerges, and access for Russian liaison officers—to reassure Mr Putin that the missile shield is not an attempt to neutralise Russia's nuclear arsenal.

Russia insists that it wants around-the-clock monitors based at both sites—a demand that causes resentment in countries that 19 years ago were unwilling members of the Soviet-led Warsaw pact. The Czech Republic has reached a deal on hosting the American radar, but Poland is holding out for better terms—especially American help to modernise its armed forces.

America's policy in eastern Europe is running out of steam. Earlier successes, such as expanding NATO to the Baltic states, are now overshadowed by disunity. Some newer NATO members even view Germany as something of a “fifth column” for Russia. Given the uncertainty over what a new American presidency will bring, the outlook for many in Europe's ex-communist states is worrying.

The coming days

The week ahead

In search of a resolution to the war in Georgia, and other news

• RUSSIA and Georgia have agreed to form humanitarian corridors to arrange for the evacuation of civilians caught up in fighting in South Ossetia. Amid ongoing uncertainty, Georiga now says that it has withdrawn troops from South Ossetia, where they had been battling Russian soldiers. The coming days will see whether the conflict is snuffed out quickly, or whether further escalation is likely.

• PARTIES that make up Pakistan’s ruling coalition are set to launch impeachment proceedings against President Pervez Musharraf when parliament convenes on Monday August 11th. Mr Musharraf, who has presided over an economic meltdown and a growing Taliban insurgency in the north-west of the country, faces a vote of no confidence. The ruling coalition says that Mr Musharraf acted unconstitutionally by declaring a state of emergency last November and dismissing nearly 60 judges. But it is far from clear if his opponents can muster the two-thirds majority in the upper and lower houses needed to remove Mr Musharraf from office.

• THE parlous state of Europe's economy will become apparent when GDP figures for the euro area are released on Thursday August 14th. Worsening economic conditions in France, Germany, Spain and Italy are likely to have cuased a contraction in the second quarter of 2008 after steady growth in the previous three months. The impact of the strong euro, the credit crunch, ballooning prices for food and energy and a slowdown in other big economies have all taken their toll.

• ANGELA MERKEL, Germany’s chancellor, travels to the Black Sea resort of Sochi on Friday August 15th for a meeting with Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s president, amid uncertainty about the conflict in Georgia. Subjects set for discussion have not been revealed, but the question of NATO membership for Ukraine has strained relations between Russia and countries in western Europe recently. Mr Medvedev is sure to remind the German leader of Europe’s strong dependence on Russian oil and gas.

• AS NEGOTIATIONS to resolve the political crisis in Zimbabwe continue, the annual summit of the regional grouping, the Southern African Development Community (SADC), begins in Johannesburg, South Africa, on Saturday August 16th. South Africa's president, Thabo Mbeki, is leading efforts to mediate some sort of power-sharing agreement between rivals in Zimbabwe. The political upheaval and economic collapse in that country are causing difficulties for the region as a whole, as refugees flock to neighbouring countries and investors and tourists grow worried about stability.

Saturday, August 9, 2008

Russia intensifies offensive in Georgia

By Roman Olearchyk in Gori and Catherine Belton in Moscow

Georgia called for a ceasefire on Saturday after Russia sharply escalated an offensive to take back control of the capital of Georgia’s breakaway region of South Ossetia and expanded a bombing campaign to hit Georgian targets outside the war zone.

George W. Bush, the US president, said attacks by Russia on Georgian targets outside South Ossetia were a ”dangerous escalation” of the crisis and called on Moscow to halt the bombing immediately.

The Georgian government said Russian bombers had launched air strikes on at least five Georgian villages, while a military airbase just outside the capital ”sustained heavy damage” from Russian strikes. Russian bombers destroyed three apartment buildings in Gori, a Georgian town some 30km from South Ossetia. Nika Kipshidze, the chief Georgian doctor coordinating the treatment of casualties, said 16 corpses had been recovered from the apartment buildings, and a further 20 people were in critical condition.

The Russian-backed government in Abkhazia, another separatist enclave in Georgia, said its forces had begun an operation to push out Georgian government troops, potentially opening a second front in the worst conflict to hit the region in 20 years.

Russian officials said the civilian death toll had climbed to at least 2000 in Tskhinvali alone after a fierce escalation of the conflict, which threatens to put Moscow on a collision course with Washington and poses risks for international oil pipelines. Russian news broadcasts showed footage of burning buildings, charred ruins and burnt out tanks in the regional capital. The reports claimed women and children were still hiding in cellars.

Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president, told Mr Bush that the only way to end the crisis was for Georgian troops to withdraw from the conflict zone. Mr Medvedev said earlier on Saturday that Moscow had sent troops into South Ossetia in order to force Georgia into a ceasefire.

Russia claims it was forced into the military offensive that began on Thursday night in response to what it said was Georgia’s efforts to seize control of the region by attacking Russian peacekeepers and civilians.

But there was little response from Russia on Saturday evening to Georgia’s calls for a ceasefire. Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister, called on Georgia to ”immediately end the aggression in South Ossetia” as he attended a meeting in Vladikavkaz. He accused Georgia of seeking ”bloody adventures” while dragging other nations into its conflicts as part of a bid to join NATO. An official in the Russian defence ministry told Interfax news agency it knew nothing of the ceasefire proposal from Mikhail Saakashvili, the Georgian president. Mr Saakashvili had also called for an immediate withdrawal of Russian troops

Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, earlier on Saturday rejected calls from the international community for an immediate ceasefire and said Russia reserved the right to target any part of Georgia’s territory that was involved in the attack on South Ossetia. ”Whatever part of Georgia is used for this aggression is not safe,” he said. ”The source of the attack must be hit in order to prevent the aggressor from doing it again.”

But he said Russia was not likely to bomb Tbilisi. ”I don’t reckon that Tbilisi is the place from where they are sending their shells to kill the people of Southern Ossetia, to bomb villages, to bomb hospitals, to bomb convoys with humanitarian supplies, to bomb convoys with wounded people,” he said.

The Georgian government has also claimed Russia bombed Poti on the Black Sea, which is a key port for the transportation of energy sources from the Caspian Sea and is close to the Baku-Supsa pipeline and the Supsa oil terminal. The strikes did not hit the oil terminal. It also said that Russian bombers had hit targets in the Kodori Gorge in Abkhazia.

Mr Bush, who was attending the Olympic Games in Beijing, said Georgia’s territorial integrity must be respected and ”we call for an end to the Russian bombings.”

”I’m deeply concerned about the situation in Georgia,” Mr Bush said. ”The attacks are occurring in regions of Georgia far from the zone of conflict in South Ossetia. They mark a dangerous escalation in the crisis.”

Peter Semneby, the EU’s special representative to the Caucasus region, said: ”The situation has clearly got beyond South Ossetia. There are much larger issues at stake.”

”It’s a defining moment for Georgia and for relations between the EU, Georgia and Russia.”

Mr Lavrov indirectly accused the West on Saturday of contributing to the violence. ”Those who have been supplying arms to Georgia should feel part of the blame for the loss of life of civilians including many Russian citizens, both peacekeepers and civilians,” he said.

Georgia, which has considerably boosted its arms spending over the past two years, has irked Russia by buying most of its military hardware from the US, Ukraine, Israel and other non-Russian sources.