Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Four years ago, Colorado -- a state whose name is derived from the Spanish word for red -- was true to that label on the political map. Republicans held the governor's mansion, both U.S. Senate seats, five of seven congressional seats and both houses of the legislature. President George W. Bush carried the state by 5 points.
This year, Democrats see opportunity instead of defeat. They are banking on their presidential candidate, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, carrying Colorado. The party expects to pick up a Senate seat and possibly two in the House, including one in reliably Republican Larimer County, where voters haven't sent a Democrat to Congress since 1970.
``There's a tectonic shift in the state's politics,'' said Matt Ferrauto of the Colorado Democratic Party. State polls suggest strong showings for Democratic candidates running for offices ranging from magistrate to president; this pattern has emerged in almost two-dozen states as Democrats see the best national conditions for their party since the 1970s.
Seventeen hundred miles away, in the onetime Republican stronghold of Loudoun County, Virginia, Obama has 60 full-time volunteers and 700 part-timers helping out at a Leesburg storefront. The Republican candidate, John McCain, has yet to open an office in the county. In Virginia, which hasn't backed a Democrat for president in 44 years, Obama has four times more offices than McCain, and state polls show them in a dead heat.
`Overwhelmingly Tilted'
``Watergate is the last time things were so overwhelmingly tilted against the Republicans,'' said David Rohde, a political scientist at Duke University in Durham, North Carolina.
Democrats kick off their nominating convention in Denver today expecting strong gains up and down the ballot, even in many historically Republican counties and states. Their optimism is fueled by widespread discontent with the Bush administration, anxiety over the economy, rising Democratic registration, unprecedented turnout in primaries and record fundraising by Obama.
The political energy is on the Democrats' side. In a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll published Aug. 19, 55 percent of party voters said they are ``very enthusiastic'' about their presidential candidate, compared with 29 percent of Republicans.
Registration Gains
Even if Obama, 47, and McCain, 71, remain locked in a tight race, the Democrats expect to sweep many down-ballot offices. That confidence is justified, said Jennifer Duffy, an analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. In the first six months of 2008, the number of Americans who identified themselves as Democrats was 14 percentage points higher than the number who said they were Republicans, she said.
A poll by Hamden, Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University released yesterday showed Obama in a virtual dead heat with McCain in Colorado, at 46 percent to 47 percent, similar to a July survey.
Since the last presidential election, Democrats and independents have gained in most of the 28 states -- along with the District of Columbia -- where voters register by party, as Republican rolls have dropped, state data show.
In one of the most dramatic examples, in Pennsylvania, more than 380,000 voters changed their registration or registered for the first time as Democrats, while Republicans lost almost 64,000 registered voters, according to the Pennsylvania Department of State.
Nevada has also seen a shift. Since the start of this year, Democratic registrations grew by 57,000, while Republican numbers increased only by 6,900, according to the secretary of state.
Turnout Surge
Moreover, Democratic turnout was dramatically higher in this year's primaries. In 2000, the last time both parties had a competitive race in New Hampshire, almost 80,000 more voters participated in the Republican primary than in Democratic race. This year, that margin was almost reversed. In Georgia, voters in the 2000 Republican primary outnumbered Democratic participants by a 3-to-1 margin. This year, the Democratic contest drew almost 150,000 more people than the Republican one.
In Iowa, where Democrats and Republicans campaigned fiercely in their parties' nominating contest, caucus attendance almost doubled among Democrats, while Republican turnout rose much less.
Obama's aggressive field operations have contributed as well. In solidly Republican Alaska, he has four offices, including one in Anchorage that on a recent weekday had 15 volunteers tapping on laptops and making calls. McCain has no offices in the state and doesn't plan to open any, campaign officials said.
Obama in Virginia
Obama has 28 offices across Virginia, compared with McCain's six offices in urban centers.
``If you build it, they will come,'' Obama's Virginia state director Mitch Stewart said, describing the campaign's strategy for attracting undecided voters.
In Loudoun County, which is about 30 miles northwest of Washington, Obama aides estimated they had recruited 75 percent of the precinct captains they need.
In 2004, Bush won the county decisively, 56 percent to 44 percent for the Democratic presidential candidate, John Kerry, who didn't open a local office.
While for now McCain remains likely to carry the county, his margin of victory may be smaller.
Turn to Democrats
Mark Herring, a Democratic Virginia state senator, said voters are turning away from Republicans because ``they've seen that problems haven't gotten fixed when elected officials are focused on social issues or ideology.''
Nationally, the Democrats have another important asset: The party has broken a four-decade Republican advantage in fundraising.
Obama had raised $390 million through July, more than double McCain's $152 million. The Democratic House and Senate fundraising committees have also outperformed their Republican counterparts, making up for the lagging group in the party --the Democratic National Committee.
Obama and the three major Democratic fundraising committees held an edge of $722 million to $510 million for McCain and the three Republican counterparts through July.
The trend toward Democrats is particularly strong among young voters and Hispanics. In 2004, voters under 30 comprised 17 percent of the electorate. This year, with unprecedented mobilization by Obama, that is expected to grow. Hispanics are 9 percent of eligible voters and the fastest-growing demographic group.
Young Voters
According to a recent study by the Washington-based Pew Research Center, young voters who came of age during the Bush administration are giving Democrats a wide advantage, just as the previous generation that came of age under Ronald Reagan helped fuel the Republican congressional surge of the 1990s.
Fifty-eight percent of voters under 30 are Democrats or lean Democratic, while only 33 percent associate with Republicans, Pew found. The Democrats' advantage among young people has more than doubled since 2004, to 25 points from 11 points.
Hispanic voters have also moved further toward Democrats in the past two years, as Republicans have made immigration and border protection a central issue. Sixty-five percent of Hispanic voters identify with or lean toward the Democrats, compared with 26 percent who identify with or lean Republican.
No similarly significant demographic group has moved toward the Republicans in recent years.
Rocky Mountain West
The trends among younger and Hispanic voters encourage Democrats about their prospects in the Rocky Mountain West, where the party's convention is being held this week.
In Colorado, Democrat Betsy Markey, 52, is challenging three-term Republican Marilyn Musgrave, 59, in the congressional district that includes Larimer County, which hasn't elected a Democrat in 38 years.
Markey raised 40 percent more money last quarter than the Republican incumbent, drawing new supporters such as Steve Levinger, a lifelong Republican.
Levinger, 45, a hotel owner in Fort Collins, said he is disgusted by ``the mess'' his onetime party has ``gotten this country into.''
``I wouldn't vote for a Republican now if they were the last person on Earth,'' he said.
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