Economics focus
Lessons from a “lost decade”
Will America follow Japan into a decade of stagnation?
AS FALLING house prices and tightening credit squeeze America’s economy, some worry that the country may suffer a decade of stagnation, as Japan did after its bubble burst in the early 1990s. Japan’s property bubble was also fuelled by cheap money and financial liberalisation and—just as in America—most people assumed that property prices could not fall nationally. When they did, borrowers defaulted and banks cut their lending. The result was a decade with average growth of less than 1%.
Most dismiss the idea that America could suffer the same fate as Japan, but some of the differences are overstated. For example, some claim that Japan’s bubble was much bigger than America’s. Yet average house prices nationwide rose by 90% in America between 2000 and 2006, compared with a gain of 51% in Japan between 1985 and early 1991, when Japanese home prices peaked (see left-hand chart). Prices in Japan’s biggest cities rose faster, but nationwide figures matter more when gauging the impact on the economy. Japanese home prices have since fallen by just over 40%. American prices are already down by 20%, and many economists reckon they could fall by another 10% or more.
What about commercial property? Again, average prices rose by less in Japan (80%) than in America (90%) over those same periods. Thus Japan’s property boom was, if anything, smaller than America’s. Japan also had a stockmarket bubble, which burst a year earlier than that in property. This hurt banks, because they counted part of their equity holdings in other firms as capital. But its impact on households was modest, because only 30% of the population held shares, compared with over half of Americans.
Nor were Japanese policymakers any slower than American ones to cut interest rates and loosen fiscal policy after the bubble burst, contrary to popular misconceptions. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) began to lower interest rates in July 1991, soon after property prices began to decline. The discount rate was cut from 6% to 1.75% by the end of 1993. Two years after American house prices started to slide, the Fed funds rate has fallen from 5.25% to 2% (see right-hand chart). A study by America’s Federal Reserve concluded that Japanese interest rates fell more sharply in the early 1990s than required by the “Taylor rule”, which establishes the appropriate rate using the amount of spare capacity and inflation.
Japan also gave its economy a big fiscal boost. The cyclically adjusted budget deficit (which excludes the automatic impact of slower growth on tax revenues) increased by an annual average of 1.8% of GDP in 1992 and 1993—similar to America’s budget boost this year. Japan’s monetary and fiscal stimulus did help to lift the economy. After a recession in 1993-94, GDP was growing at an annual rate of around 2.5% by 1995. But deflation also emerged that year, pushing up real interest rates and increasing the real burden of debt. It was from here on that Japan made its biggest policy mistakes. In 1997 the government raised its consumption tax to try to slim its budget deficit. And with interest rates close to zero, the BoJ insisted that there was nothing more it could do. Only much later did it start to print lots of money.
America’s inflation rate of above 5% is an advantage. Not only are real interest rates negative, but inflation is also helping to bring the housing market back to fair value with a smaller fall in prices than otherwise. But in another way America is more exposed than Japan was. When its bubble burst in 1991, Japan’s households saved 15% of their income. By 2001 saving had fallen to 5%, which helped to prop up consumer spending. America’s saving rate of close to zero leaves no such cushion.
The perils of procrastination
John Makin, at the American Enterprise Institute, a think-tank, argues that monetary and fiscal relief were necessary but not sufficient to revive Japan’s economy. The missing ingredient was a clean-up of the banking system, on which Japanese firms were more dependent than their American counterparts. Japanese banks hid their bad loans beneath opaque corporate structures, and curtailed new lending to profitable businesses. A vicious circle developed, whereby banks’ bad loans depressed growth which then created more bad loans.
In another new report Richard Jerram, at Macquarie Securities, concludes that America “will not come close to repeating the experience of Japan”, because its regulatory system, financial markets and political structure will not let it procrastinate for so long. America has a more transparent regulatory structure which presses banks into recognising losses and repairing their balance-sheets—even if regulators were slow to recognise that the banks were shifting risky securitised assets off their balance-sheets in the first place. But Japan’s regulators for a long while were in cahoots with banks over hiding their bad loans.
Over the past year, American banks have been quicker than those in Japan in the 1990s to disclose and write off losses and raise new capital. In Japan it took a long while before the political will was there to use taxpayers’ money to plug the banking system. A big test for America’s Treasury will be how quickly it recognises the need to nationalise Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the teetering mortgage giants.
One advantage over Japan, says Mr Jerram, is that America is spreading the costs of its housing bust across other countries. Foreigners hold a large slice of American mortgage-backed securities. Sovereign-wealth funds have provided new capital for American banks. And America’s booming exports have helped to support its economy, thanks to the cheap dollar. In contrast, the yen’s sharp appreciation after Japan’s bubble burst hurt exports at the same time as domestic demand was being squeezed.
By learning from Japan’s mistakes, America can avoid a dismal decade. However, it would be arrogant for those in Washington, DC, to assume that Japan’s troubles simply reflected its macroeconomic incompetence. Experience in other countries shows that serious asset-price busts often lead to economic downturns lasting several years. Only a wild optimist would believe that the worst is over in America.
The Democrats
A lip-smacking convention
The Democratic convention gets under way in Denver, Colorado
SHORT speeches at party conventions used to be taken as a lack of respect for delegates who had travelled from afar, according to Michael Beschloss, a political historian. The demands of television mean this is no longer the case. Speechifying is kept to a minimum; a small mercy for viewers witnessing the parade of Democratic Party apparatchiks and union leaders on stage at Denver’s Pepsi Centre.
A few speakers will be heard with intense care. Barack Obama’s wife, Michelle, delivers the primetime address on Monday. Joe Biden, Mr Obama’s running mate, speaks on Wednesday about security policy. Pundits will study every word that Hillary Clinton utters in her slot on Tuesday night for indications of her commitment to Mr Obama’s victory.
The convention is also an occasion to spot future stars. The Democrats’ keynote address will delivered by Mark Warner, a popular former governor of Virginia who is standing for a Senate seat. Mr Warner is touted by observers as a strong candidate for the presidency in 2012 (if Mr Obama loses this time) or 2016. It is often the keynote address for which a convention is remembered. The late Ann Richards delivered the address in 1988 that included a memorable line about George Bush senior being “born with a silver foot in his mouth” (Bill Clinton’s rambling speech the same year, when he was governor of Arkansas, is often cited as the most boring in convention history). And in 2004 a certain state senator from Illinois delivered the keynote address that propelled him to national attention.
Detractors say modern conventions have become stultifying to the point of irrelevance. Some miss the drama that Democratic conventions used to produce, such as in 1964 when a delegate slate of civil-rights workers from Mississippi tried to replace the state’s white-only contingent. Others remember fondly the battles (literally) in Chicago in 1968, and 1980, when Ted Kennedy fought in vain for delegates to switch their votes away from Jimmy Carter.
Conventions are now much quieter affairs, the point being to assure voters that any fringe element is powerless and to deliver an all-important “bounce” to the candidate (see chart). Still, there is a chance of some theatrics this year during the state-by-state delegate count. Passions still run high among some Clintonistas, indignant at their candidate’s narrow loss to Mr Obama. Loretta Sanchez, a congresswoman from southern California, raised eyebrows recently when she suggested that half of Democrats in the House would vote for Mrs Clinton.
The Obama campaign is letting Mrs Clinton’s delegates register their support for her in a traditional floor vote. Mrs Clinton herself will vote for Mr Obama, but roving television cameras will pick up any signs of trouble on the floor, such as unfurled banners or scuffles. A “whip team” of 40 Clinton staffers will patrol to make sure no one makes a scene. With some delegates switching sides, Mrs Clinton is expected to end up with a significantly smaller tally than the 1,900-odd she chalked up during the primaries.
The candidate’s acceptance speech on Thursday evening is the big moment of the week. The announcement in July that he would deliver his speech to more than 70,000 people at a sports stadium was viewed as evidence of a confident campaign. But following Mr Obama’s rock-star-like tour of Europe and appearance before 200,000 Berliners, John McCain has poked fun at his rival’s celebrity status with some success; the theme of Mr Obama's speech, “change you can believe in”, even seems a bit hackneyed. Democrats are urging Mr Obama to tone it down and to do more empathising.
His advisers see no reason to alter the main theme behind a remarkably successful campaign. And Mr Obama’s acceptance speech is likely to attract a wide viewership precisely because it is being billed as an “event”. He will no doubt be hailed as eloquent. But in a tightening race, the question is whether his speech will resonate with voters.
Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The $70 billion Beijing Olympics concluded with host China topping the gold-medal standings for the first time and record-setting swimmers and sprinters overshadowing pre-Games fears about doping and pollution.
China won 51 gold medals to end a 12-year run atop the standings by the U.S., which got eight of its 36 golds from Michael Phelps. The opening-week story of the Games, Phelps broke the previous Summer Olympics record of seven gold medals held by fellow U.S. swimmer Mark Spitz in 1972.
``This was everything that I wanted to do, and everything I dreamed of,'' said Phelps, who also passed the previous record for career gold medals by five with his 14th.
Without the anticipated pollution or political protests, focus at the most expensive Games in history remained on the 17-day sports competition, with 25 swimming world bests set in the Water Cube pool and Jamaican Usain Bolt sprinting into the record books.
``New stars were born and stars from past games amazed us again,'' Jacques Rogge, president of the International Olympic Committee, said at the closing ceremonies. ``We will long remember the achievements we witnessed here. These were truly exceptional Games.''
The U.S. men's basketball team reasserted its dominance in regaining the gold medal it lost in Athens, while the U.S. men's indoor volleyball team turned tragedy into triumph by winning its first gold in 20 years, just 15 days after the murder of coach Hugh McCutcheon's father-in-law at a Beijing tourist spot.
``I would imagine he would have been extremely proud of what this team accomplished,'' McCutcheon said. ``For them to come through is a wonderful achievement.''
China's Success
In the opening medal event of the Games, the hosts got off to a disappointing start when shooter Du Li, a defending Olympic champion, faltered and then said the pressure got to her. That didn't become a theme.
China amassed nine gold medals in gymnastics, eight in weightlifting, seven in diving and all four in table tennis, and Du rebounded to score a gold.
China became the first country other than the U.S. or former Soviet Union to top the gold medal standings since Germany in 1936. The U.S. finished with 15 fewer gold medals than the host and a Games-high 110 total medals to China's 100.
Liu Xiang, the nation's most popular track athlete, was unable to defend his title in the 110-meter hurdles because of an ankle injury, devastating the athlete and his supporters.
``I still have opportunities next year and in the future,'' Liu said. ``I will show to everyone that I can still do it.''
`Breaks'
China's Olympic organizers received plaudits for their efforts, which included $17 billion alone spent on cleaning the air ahead of the Games. Pollution levels even in the last week of July prompted health warnings in Beijing, yet the haze cleared and no events had to be rescheduled. Few athletes complained, especially as hot and humid conditions passed early in the competition.
``You've got to have the breaks,'' Kevan Gosper, the IOC member who was No. 2 at the Sydney Olympics, said in an interview. ``It's happened here.''
A 6-foot-5 Jamaican sprinter by the nickname of ``Lightning'' struck three times in Beijing, thrilling the capacity crowds of 91,000 at the Bird's Nest stadium.
The 22-year-old became the first man to win gold medals in the 100- and 200-meter sprints, and the 400 relay in the same Olympics since Carl Lewis in 1984. He set world records in all three races and afterwards danced in celebration.
``I told myself I was going to leave everything on the track,'' Bolt said. ``I did just that.''
World Records
The U.S. dominated swimming with 31 medals, with Australia second with 20 -- led by Stephanie Rice's three golds. For the 23-year-old Phelps, seven of his wins came in world records. He pushed his total to an all-time best 14 career gold medals.
The U.S. basketball team, led by Kobe Bryant and nicknamed the ``Redeem Team'' after its bronze medal in Athens, secured a 13th gold in 16 tries by beating Spain 118-107 yesterday.
Japan's upset of the U.S. softball team and South Korea's baseball victory over three-time champion Cuba were in sports that will be dropped from the Games for London 2012.
One of the few controversies for the host was the probe into whether women's gymnastics champion He Kexin is under the Olympic age requirement. Chinese officials said a registration error led to reports that she was 13 last year, below the minimum age of 16 years. A probe by the sport's governing body continues.
Back to Barcelona
Argentina successfully defended its men's soccer title, beating Nigeria 1-0. Lionel Messi, only playing after his professional club Barcelona waived its right to withdraw him, set up Angel Di Maria's winning goal.
``I'm going back to Barcelona with a gold medal on my chest,'' the 21-year-old Messi said.
Rafael Nadal will also take a gold back to Spain, collecting the men's singles tennis title to add to his wins this year at the French Open and Wimbledon. Roger Federer and Swiss teammate Stanislas Wawrinka won the men's doubles championship. Elena Dementieva led a Russian sweep of the women's singles medals, while sisters Venus and Serena Williams won doubles for the U.S.
Smaller nations also enjoyed successes. There were first gold medals for Mongolia, Bahrain and the Dominican Republic, while Singapore snared its second medal in history with a silver in the women's team table tennis. The second-biggest nation, India, got its first individual gold medal when shooter Abhinav Bindra won the men's 10-meter air rifle event.
London's Success
Britain enjoyed its best Olympics since the 1908 Games in London, with the 2012 host picking up seven gold medals in cycling and four in sailing to finish fourth with 19.
``These have been a supremely well-delivered Games,'' Sebastian Coe, chairman of the organizing committee of the London 2012 Olympics, said. ``The detailed planning and execution has inspired us.''
Although China set aside designated protest zones in the city after international criticism of its human rights record, all 77 applications for protest permits were rejected.
Rogge's assertion that the Olympics would be a catalyst for change in China was challenged by human rights groups, who disputed the mantra that the Games were a ``force for good.''
Human Rights
``The reality is that the Chinese government's hosting of the Games has been a catalyst for abuses,'' said Sophie Richardson of Human Rights Watch.
Asked about two Chinese septuagenarians being sentenced to one-year reeducation for making five protest applications, Rogge said it was ``an application of Chinese law.''
``The IOC is not a sovereign organization,'' he said yesterday. ``It has to respect Chinese law.''
While Rogge said he expected more drug cheats than the 26 in Athens four years ago, only six athletes flunked in Beijing. It was just two more than the number of horses that failed doping tests in Hong Kong. The IOC said a more rigorous drug- testing programs had served as a deterrent.
Rogge said the IOC was storing athlete samples in case new drugs and tests for detecting them are discovered.
``It has become more difficult to cheat,'' Rogge said yesterday. ``The overwhelming majority is clean.''
Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. rose in July from a 10-year low as declining prices helped stabilize demand.
Resales rose 3.1 percent, more than forecast, to an annual rate of 5 million from 4.85 million in June, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median price dropped 7.1 percent from July 2007, and the number of homes for sale jumped to a record.
Record foreclosures have pushed property values down even more, luring some bargain hunters into the market. Still, tougher lending rules, rising unemployment and a glut of unsold houses signal the outlook for residential real estate remains grim.
``It'll be a while before we get a real recovery in housing,'' Stephen Gallagher, chief U.S. economist at Societe Generale in New York, said before the report. ``These things take time to work through. Prices have come off, so that's helping home sales a little.''
Resales were forecast to rise to a 4.91 million annual rate, according to the median estimate of 75 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from 4.69 million to 5 million. July's sale rate was the highest since February.
Sales were down 13 percent compared with a year earlier. Resales totaled 5.65 million in 2007.
The increase in sales wasn't enough to keep up with the surge in properties coming into the market as foreclosures mount. There were a record 4.67 million unsold houses and condos on the market in July, representing 11.2 month's supply at the current sales pace, matching the highest ever. The group has said a 5 to six month's supply is consistent with a stable market.
Inventory Jumps
The jump in inventory was driven by an increase in the supply of condos as projects started one or 2 years ago came on the market, the Realtors group said.
The median price of an existing home fell to $212,400 from $228,600 in July 2007.
``We are in a very tight credit-availability condition,'' Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, said in a press conference. ``Inventories continue to remain very high.''
Resales account for about 85 percent of the market, while purchases of new homes make up the rest. Sales of existing homes are compiled from contract closings and may reflect contracts signed one or two months earlier.
For that reason, economists consider new-home sales, which are recorded when a contract is signed, a more timely barometer of the market. A report tomorrow from the Commerce Department may show new home sales fell in July for the third consecutive month, according to the Bloomberg survey median.
Breakdown
Today's report showed resales of single-family homes increased 3.1 percent to a 4.39 million annual pace. Sales of condos and co-ops climbed 3.4 percent to an 610,000 rate, the most since November.
Purchases increased in three of four regions, led by a 9.7 percent jump in the West. Sales fell 0.5 percent in the South.
Tight credit conditions and ongoing declines in residential construction will weigh on economic growth in coming months, Federal Reserve policy makers said at their Aug. 5 meeting. The Fed's quarterly survey of bank loan officers showed 75 percent had made it tougher for prime borrowers to get a mortgage, more than in the April survey.
``I worry a lot about what's happening in housing,'' Martin Feldstein, a member of the committee that charts American business cycles, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television last week. ``The number of negative-equity homes is exploding. Housing prices will continue to go down, driven by the large oversupply of houses and the increasing number of foreclosures.''
Bank Sales
The number of unsold previously owned homes has piled up as some owners resist lowering prices and banks repossess more properties.
For their part, builders are working to pare the inventory of new homes. Ground was broken on the fewest new houses in 17 years in July, and permits, a sign of future construction, also fell, a report from the Commerce Department last week showed.
The S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas dropped in May, extending a string of declines that started in August 2006. June figures are due tomorrow.
``Buyers are coming back into the market,'' Tom McCormick, president of Astoria Homes, said in a Bloomberg Television interview last week. ``Remarkably low'' prices do ``seem to be bringing people in off the sidelines.''
While lower home values may be reviving interest among some homebuyers, the declines also reduce household wealth, just as job losses and borrowing costs are rising. That's contributing to a slowdown in consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy.
Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- One year into the financial crisis, central bankers and scholars at the Federal Reserve's annual retreat this weekend couldn't agree on how to prevent a repeat.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, European counterpart Jean- Claude Trichet, former officials and economists meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, split over whether central banks should be made responsible for financial stability and how closely to heed the concerns of Wall Street.
``We shouldn't delude ourselves into thinking we are going to build a panic-proof system,'' former Fed Vice Chairman Alan Blinder, who attended the conference, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ``But there are choices between less and more panics, more virulent ones, less virulent ones, and that is the way we want to push the system.''
At stake is the shape of financial regulation as governments and legislators draft new laws in response to the crisis, which stemmed from a collapse in U.S. mortgage bonds and has sparked more than $500 billion in losses and writedowns. Too many new rules may hobble financial innovation, while a hands- off approach could create more bubbles after a series of asset- price busts over the past decade.
Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer said in a speech closing the two-day conference in the Teton Mountains that ``it didn't settle a whole lot.''
Defending Record
Participants, greeted by a stuffed 600-pound (272 kilogram) grizzly bear as they entered the Jackson Lake Lodge's wood- paneled meeting room, heard Trichet and Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin defend the track record of central banks over the past year. Critics such as academic Willem Buiter countered that their willingness to bail out distressed investors is ``unhealthy and dangerous.''
``You want to keep the baby in the bathwater, so to speak, but throw out the bathwater,'' former International Monetary Fund chief economist Raghuram Rajan said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ``That's going to be a very hard thing.''
Rajan and two co-authors presented a proposal at the symposium for disaster insurance that gives banks access to capital when they suffer big losses on their loans.
The conference is the central-banking community's hottest ticket, hosted by the Kansas City Fed bank in Grand Teton National Park since 1982.
Attendees heard Bernanke signal in his opening speech Aug. 22 a need for new Fed powers and comprehensive supervision of systemic risk. Senior U.S. lawmakers, such as House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank, advocate giving the Fed authority to supervise investment banks.
Inflation Concern
A few hours later, European Central Bank governing council member Mario Draghi, who chairs an international group of regulators and finance officials, said policy makers additional responsibility for ensuring stable markets would risk impeding their ability to control inflation.
Participants nevertheless agreed that change is on the way, even if its form is as yet unclear. Pippa Malmgren, a former financial-markets adviser to U.S. President George W. Bush, said firms' capital and liquidity requirements are likely to increase, making it tougher for them to generate profits on the scale they have in the past.
`They're going to take the keys to the Maserati away,'' said Malmgren, now president of London-based adviser Canonbury Group. ``This is going to dramatically change the financial landscape.''
Faulting Fed
The event's biggest debate was sparked by Buiter, a former Bank of England policy maker, who presented a paper saying the Fed pays too much heed to the concerns of financial institutions. In response, Blinder, now professor of economics at Princeton University in New Jersey, said the central bank's performance, though not flawless, has been ``pretty good'' given the magnitude of the crisis.
Trichet also came to the Fed's defense, saying ``what has been done until now has been pretty well done under very difficult circumstances.''
While lawmakers and regulators will be busy trying to figure out how to write new rules, how any expansion of the Fed's authority works in practice may be out of the central bank's control, said Carnegie Mellon University professor Allan Meltzer, who is writing the second volume of a history of the Fed.
``Lawyers and bureaucrats make regulation, and markets decide how to circumvent them,'' Meltzer said during an audience discussion period.
One thing attendees did agree on: The yearlong credit crisis has yet to run its course, with continued turmoil likely in housing and banking. Martin Feldstein, a Harvard University economist, said he expects ``some failures in the regional banks, including some big regional banks.''
``It was clear from what was said that most people here don't believe the financial crisis is necessarily over or close to being over,'' Fischer said in his closing speech.
Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell for the first time in four days as the nation's ninth bank failure of the year renewed concern that subprime losses will keep rattling the financial system.
Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. dropped more than 1 percent each after Columbian Bank and Trust Co. of Topeka, Kansas, collapsed amid bad real-estate loans. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. declined more than 4 percent on concern a Korean bank will reconsider a potential investment in the fourth-biggest U.S. securities firm.
``The market's going to struggle until we get a clear indication that we know what the bottom is in the financials, and that may be a while,'' Peter Sorrentino, senior portfolio manager at Cincinnati-based Huntington Asset Advisors, which manages about $17 billion, told Bloomberg Television.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped 7.38, or 0.6 percent, to 1,284.81 as of 9:35 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 79.06, or 0.7 percent, to 11,549. The Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 18.71 to 2,396. Four stocks retreated for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.
The S&P 500 extended its first weekly decline since July. The benchmark for American equities slipped 0.5 percent last week as energy prices climbed and concern grew that the government may need to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Morgan Stanley cut its year-end forecast for the index on concern banks will report more credit-related writedowns and the global economic slowdown will curb profits at technology and industrial companies.
`Long Tail'
``Our biggest concern for 2009 earnings estimates is that a combination of global growth slowdown, declining operating leverage, a stronger U.S. dollar, less share count reduction and a long tail to dysfunctional credit markets will create powerful headwinds for what appear to very optimistic consensus expectations,'' Abhijit Chakrabortti wrote in a note to clients dated yesterday.
JPMorgan dropped 57 cents to $37.10. Bank of America retreated 45 cents to $29.76.
Columbian Bank, with $752 million in assets and $622 million in total deposits, was shuttered by the Kansas state bank commissioner's office and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., on Aug. 22.
The pace of bank closings is accelerating as global financial firms have reported more than $500 billion in writedowns and credit losses since 2007. The FDIC's ``problem'' bank list grew by 18 percent in the first quarter to 90 banks with combined assets of $26.3 billion. Prior to yesterday, the FDIC had closed 36 banks since October 2000, according to a list at fdic.gov. The U.S. shut 12 banks in 2002, the highest in the period, and 2005 and 2006 had no closures.
`Bad Memories'
``The closure of Columbian Bank awakened investors' bad memories and shows that we are not through with the topic yet,'' said Monika Rosen, head of research at BA-CA Asset Management in Vienna, which manages the equivalent of $41 billion.
Lehman slipped 63 cents to $13.78. Shares of the securities firm rose 5 percent in New York trading on Aug. 22 after Korea Development Bank said it's ``considering'' an investment in the company.
Lehman Talks
The Korean bank ended talks on a possible investment after Lehman demanded a price 50 percent higher than its book value, the Maeil Business newspaper said, citing an unnamed official in the banking industry. South Korea's financial regulator said today that state-controlled banks including Korea Development Bank should consider the risks of buying overseas rivals amid the global credit crisis.
New York-based Lehman has dropped 79 percent this year, the worst performance in the 11-company Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index.
Lehman Chief Executive Officer Richard Fuld may face an ``internal coup'' to strip him of his executive duties, the Observer reported, citing bank ``sources.'' Mark Lane, a spokesman for Lehman Brothers, was not immediately available when contacted by Bloomberg News via telephone and e-mail.
Freddie Mac lost 6 cents to $2.75 and Fannie Mae declined 37 cents to $4.63. The cost to the largest U.S. mortgage finance companies of raising capital is getting more prohibitive by the day, making it likely that the government will have to inject cash into the two firms.
Bailout Concern
Declines in the common stocks of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae accelerated last week to more than 90 percent for the year and yields on their preferred shares more than doubled on speculation Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson may need to bail them out, reducing or wiping out the value of the securities.
Financial shares last week fell the most in six weeks for the biggest drop among 10 S&P 500 industries. The group has retreated 29 percent this year as losses from the subprime mortgage collapse exceeded $500 billion. One year into the financial crisis, central bankers and scholars at the Federal Reserve's annual retreat this weekend couldn't agree on how to prevent a repeat.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, former officials and economists meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, split over whether policy makers should be made responsible for financial stability and how closely to heed the concerns of Wall Street.
The yearlong credit crisis has yet to run its course, with continued turmoil likely in housing and banking, Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer said Aug. 23 at the Fed's symposium.
-- Editors: Michael Regan, Kara Wetzel
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