Saturday, August 9, 2008

Fannie Mae unveils loss of $2.3bn

Problems in the US housing market have pushed mortgage finance company Fannie Mae into the red.

The group sank to a net loss of $2.3bn in the three months to 30 June, against a profit of $1.97bn last year.

It comes days after its sister company Freddie Mac posted worse-than-expected results and its top executive warned house price falls are not over yet.

Both government sponsored firms own, or guarantee, nearly half of the nation's mortgage debt.

Shares in Fannie Mae sank in the wake of the announcement, falling 9.8% to $8.98.

Difficult market

As mortgage guarantors, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, must pay out when people default on their loans.

But as a result of recent woes in the US housing market and subsequent sub-prime crisis the pair have run into severe difficulty.

Fannie Mae says it has the capital to weather the storm, but its looking more and more stormy by the day
John Raines,
Exclusive Analysis
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Fannie Mae said that the current housing crisis had added to its woes to the tune of $5.3bn in credit expenses.

The latest losses at the firm - which came in at more than three times analysts' estimates - followed a $2.2bn loss for the first three months of the year.

"Our second-quarter results reflect challenging conditions in the housing and mortgage markets that began in 2006 and have deepened through 2007 and 2008," said Daniel H Mudd, president and chief executive officer of Fannie Mae.

Cost cutting

He added that the firm had also taken steps to raise an additional $7bn to help it tackle the "most difficult US housing market in more than 70 years".

As part of the plan Fannie Mae is slashing its dividend by more than 85% to 0.05 cents, raising its fees and has taken steps to cut its costs by 10%.

The group also said it would stop purchasing 'Alt-A' loans - loans made to borrowers with good credit but little proof of their income, or people who either put down a small deposit, or no deposit, for their loan.

But there was little to offer hope in near-term future with Fannie Mae warning that increased volatility in capital markets and deteriorating credit conditions meant that it would face more losses.

Bail-out

Last month, the federal government offered a financial lifeline to the two beleaguered companies offering to extend their line of credit.

However, the financial aid may leave the taxpayer facing a bill of $25bn over the next two years.

"The taxpayer is stuck if they have to be bailed out," John Raines, deputy director of political risk for Exclusive Analysis told the BBC.

He added that reports had suggested the actual cost could end up being anywhere in the region of between $10bn to $100bn.

"Right now, Fannie Mae says it has the capital to weather the storm, but its looking more and more stormy by the day."

Divided Bolivia set for referendum

By James Painter
BBC Latin America analyst

Bolivia's President, Evo Morales, and eight of the country's elected regional governors, some of whom are his fiercest political enemies, are about to put their mandates on the line.

A man walks past a wall in La Paz with pro-Morales posters and signs
Sunday's vote is likely to leave Bolivia as divided as ever

On Sunday, Bolivians will vote in a recall referendum that will decide whether Mr Morales and the governors should stay in office.

But the referendum has already been shrouded in confusion over what percentage of the votes the governors need to survive in office, which could mean the results are contested.

There is also considerable doubt whether the referendum will help to reduce the acute social and geographical polarisation in Bolivia and make the country more governable.

Last May, President Morales agreed to the recall referendum in part because he believed he could use it to regain the political momentum against his opponents in the gas-rich eastern departments.

In the last three months, the opposition have been making the running.

In the departments of Santa Cruz, Beni, Trinidad and Tarija, significant majorities voted in support of more autonomy from the central government over a wide range of issues.

The government dismissed the referendums as illegal and blamed the governors for trying to break up the country.

Questioned

The rules for Sunday's vote are complicated and still in doubt:

  • President Morales and Vice-president Alvaro Garcia Linera will be voted out of office if more than 53.7% of the voters support their removal - that was their share of the vote in the 2005 elections
  • After an agreement on 31 July between the National Electoral Council (CNE) and most of the departmental courts, the regional governors will lose office if more than 50% of voters choose to have them removed
  • Previously, they would have lost if they failed to secure the same number of votes they achieved in the 2005 elections plus one. The new agreement in effect raised the barrier for rejection.

But the results could still be questioned.

Mr Morales has said he is not sure if the CNE can amend the rules; the regional governor of Cochabamba, Manfredo Reyes, has refused to accept the constitutional basis for the referendum; and two of the country's nine departmental courts (Santa Cruz and Oruro) did not sign up to the agreement.

At the root of the conflict is President Morales's desire to get a new constitution approved.

Pro-autonomy graffiti in Tarija
Several departments have been pushing hard for autonomy

This would give a greater share of Bolivia's gas wealth to the poorer western departments, allocate more land to the country's indigenous majority and allow Mr Morales to stand for re-election. The eastern departments, led by Santa Cruz, are strongly opposed.

One highly possible scenario is that both President Morales and the majority of the regional governors opposed to him are confirmed in office.

Mr Morales and his party, the Movement to Socialism, are still popular with the poor majority.

The government has used increased gas revenues to boost public spending on higher pensions, a higher minimum wage, and a cash transfer scheme by which free school meals and cash payments are given to mothers who ensure their children go to school.

However, it is likely that most of the regional governors like Ruben Costas of Santa Cruz will also be confirmed in office.

Opinion polls tend to show the government doing well in the western, highland provinces, but the governors doing well in the eastern departments.

'Agree to disagree'

Many Bolivia observers seriously doubt that Sunday's referendum will provide a way out of the political polarisation.

Evo Morales addresses a rally on 2 August
Evo Morales is Bolivia's first indigenous president

If Mr Morales gets significantly more votes than he achieved in 2005, he will feel emboldened to press ahead with another referendum - this time on the constitution.

But the opposition leaders will claim they too have a mandate to oppose it if they are confirmed in their posts and they could harden their intransigence.

Is there any way out of the impasse? Two recent reports by international think tanks suggest compromise has to be shown by both sides as the only way forward.

The International Crisis Group argued in a June briefing that it was "essential to move away from 'duelling referendums' aimed at subduing the other side'. Rather, they said basic consensus was needed around several issues:

  • the balance between departmental autonomy and indigenous autonomies in the new constitution
  • the distribution of gas revenues
  • the status of the city of Sucre as the constitutional capital (but not the seat of government).

Likewise, a paper published in July by the Washington-based Inter-American Dialogue, aptly called "Bolivia's long and winding road", came to similar conclusions around the need for consensus.

It suggests the first step should be an agreement to impartial appointments in the Constitutional Tribunal and National Electoral Court.

It warned that neither side can successfully impose their political vision on the other, and argued that the need for a mentality of "agreeing to disagree" was more urgent than ever.

AU to drop Mauritania after coup

General Mohamed Ould Abdelaziz (r) with unidentified junta members in Mauritania
Gen Abdelaziz says they are holding the president to maintain calm

The African Union (AU) is to suspend Mauritania's membership of the group following a coup which overthrew the democratically elected president.

The chair of the AU said that the suspension would last until a constitutional government was restored.

Renegade soldiers detained President Sidi Ould Cheikh Abdallahi on Wednesday after he tried to sack army officers.

The coup has been widely condemned by the international community and the US has suspended all non-humanitarian aid.

"The coup is a serious setback for Mauritanians because it has robbed the people of their basic right to freely elect leaders of their own choice," said Tanzania's Foreign Minister Bernard Membe, who holds the AU's rotating presidency.

No poll date

President Sidi Ould Cheikh Abdallahi is being held along with the country's prime minister in an undisclosed location.

We will not release the deposed president at the time being for security reasons
Coup leader Gen Mohamed Ould Abdelaziz

Gen Muhammad Ould Abdelaziz, who led the military coup, has pledged to safeguard democracy in the country but has, as yet, set no date for an election.

A representative from the Arab League said he held talks with Gen Abdelaziz and was assured that democracy would be restored.

"We got guarantees that the parliament, the democratic institutions, the political parties and freedom will continue to exist," Assistant Secretary General Ahmed bin Heli told reporters.

However, in remarks published on Saturday, Gen Abdelaziz said they would continue to detain the president to avoid any escalation.

"We will not release the deposed president at the time being for security reasons. We are now trying to make calm prevail," he is quoted as telling the London-based daily Asharq al-Awsat.

The US has withheld more than $20m (£10m) in non-humanitarian aid to the country following the coup.

The funds include $15m (£7.5m) in military-to-military co-operation, more than $4m (£2m) in peacekeeping training, and more than $3m (£1.5m) in development assistance.

Mr Abdallahi became Mauritania's first democratically elected leader in 2007 after a coup two years earlier, also instigated by Gen Abdelaziz.

It was the first free and fair poll in more than two decades in the country.

Peace bid as Ossetia crisis rages

Aftermath of the air strikes in Gori

A delegation including envoys from the US, EU and OSCE is heading to Georgia as its conflict with Russia over the breakaway South Ossetia region deepens.

The envoys hope to broker a truce after three days of fighting which are said to have killed or injured hundreds, and sent many others fleeing.

Russian jets have bombed several towns, including Gori in central Georgia.

Russia says it wants Georgian forces to withdraw to the positions they held outside South Ossetia before Thursday.

A Russian air strike on Gori, a Georgian town near South Ossetia, left 60 people dead, many of them civilians, Georgia says.

Russian officials say hundreds of civilians have been killed in South Ossetia. Georgia denies the figure, which cannot be independently verified.


Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has said his country is seeking "to force the Georgian side to peace".

Meanwhile, separatists in Abkhazia - Georgia's other breakaway region - say they have launched air and artillery strikes on Georgian forces in the Kodori Gorge.

'Broadening' conflict

The joint delegation of the US, EU and the Organisation of Security and Co-operation in Europe is due to visit Georgia on Saturday evening.

People read a list of casualties in Gori, Georgia, on 9 August

UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband said the fighting risked incurring "civilian losses on a large scale".

Emissaries from the US and Europe, all of them Nato members, are hardly likely to be seen as honest brokers by the Kremlin, when it comes to Georgia, BBC's diplomatic correspondent Bridget Kendall says.

The danger now is that Russia will not only use this crisis to demonstrate its military power in the region, but argue it is time to redraw the map, she adds.

Russian PM Vladimir Putin, arriving in Russia's North Ossetia region on his return from the Olympics, said it was unlikely now that South Ossetia would reintegrate with the rest of Georgia.

This, our diplomatic correspondent says, is precisely the outcome Georgia was trying to avoid.

Russia's ambassador to Nato, Dmitry Rogozin, said there could be no "consultations" with Georgia until Georgian forces returned to their positions and re-established "the status quo".

Accounts differ over who controls South Ossetia's capital, with Moscow saying it has "liberated" Tskhinvali.

The crisis began spiralling when Georgian forces launched a surprise attack on Thursday night to regain control of South Ossetia, which has had de facto independence since the end of a civil war in 1992.

The move followed days of exchanges of heavy fire with the Russian-backed separatists.

In response to the Georgian crackdown, Moscow sent armoured units across the border into South Ossetia.

'Total... aggression'

The Georgian parliament has approved a presidential decree declaring that the country is in a state of war for 15 days.

ARMED FORCES COMPARED
GEORGIA
Total personnel: 26,900
Main battle tanks (T-72): 82
Armoured personnel carriers: 139
Combat aircraft (Su-25): Seven
Heavy artillery pieces (including Grad rocket launchers): 95
RUSSIA
Total personnel: 641,000
Main battle tanks (various): 6,717
Armoured personnel carriers: 6,388
Combat aircraft (various): 1,206
Heavy artillery pieces (various): 7,550
Source: Jane's Sentinel Country Risk Assessments

Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili has denounced Russian reports of a high civilian death toll from his forces as an "egregious lie".

Mr Saakashvili said he had decided to declare that Georgia was in a state of war because it was "under a state of total [Russian] military aggression".

Georgia is withdrawing its entire contingent of 2,000 troops from Iraq to help deal with the crisis.

US President George W Bush said the Russian attacks outside South Ossetia marked a "dangerous escalation in the crisis" and said Georgia's territorial integrity had to be respected.

"The attacks are occurring in regions of Georgia far from the zone of conflict in South Ossetia," he said while attending the Olympics.

"The violence is endangering regional peace."

Tskhinvali 'destroyed'

Fighting continued around Tskhinvali overnight and into Saturday morning, although not at the same intensity as on Friday, Russian media reported.

SOUTH OSSETIA TIMELINE
1991-92 S Ossetia fights war to break away from newly independent Georgia; Russia enforces truce
2004 Mikhail Saakashvili elected Georgian president, promising to recover lost territories
2006 S Ossetians vote for independence in unofficial referendum
April 2008 Russia steps up ties with Abkhazia and South Ossetia
July 2008 Russia admits flying jets over S Ossetia; Russia and Georgia accuse each other of military build-up
7 August 2008 After escalating Georgian-Ossetian clashes, sides agree to ceasefire; however Georgia launches a surprise attack
8 August 2008 Russia sends in columns of armour and troops and fighting erupts with Georgian forces in and around Tskhinvali
9 August 2008 Russian jets bomb central Georgian town of Gori, Russia says its troops have "liberated" Tskhinvali

Later, the Russian Army's Ground Forces commander, Gen Vladimir Boldyrev, said his troops had "fully liberated" the city and were pushing Georgian forces back.

But the secretary of the Georgian National Security Council, Khakha Lomaia, insisted that the city remained "under the complete control of our troops".

Russian commanders, who said reinforcements were being sent to the region, confirmed that two Russian jets had been shot down over Georgia.

Speaking to Russian news agency Interfax, Russia's ambassador to Georgia, Vyacheslav Kovalenko, said on Saturday that 2,000 civilians and 13 Russian peacekeepers had been killed in Tskhinvali.

"The city of Tskhinvali no longer exists," he said. "It is gone. The Georgian military has destroyed it."

The International Red Cross (ICRC) said it had received reports that hospitals in the city were "overflowing" with casualties.

In Gori, Russian aircraft bombed mostly military targets, where Georgian troops had been massing to support their forces engaged in South Ossetia.

The BBC's Richard Galpin in Gori heard loud explosions and saw large plumes of smoke rising into the sky; soldiers and civilians were seen running through the streets.

Injured civilians were being pulled from the buildings, which were on fire.

The Georgian foreign ministry said the Black Sea port of Poti, the site of a major oil shipment facility, had been "devastated" by a Russian air raid.

Meanwhile Georgian TV reported that the Georgian-controlled section of the Kodori Gorge in Abkhazia was under fire, blaming the bombardment on Russian forces.

The foreign minister in Abkhazia's self-declared government, Sergei Shamba, said Abkhaz forces had launched an attack aimed at driving Georgian forces out of the gorge.

It was not clear whether planes used in the attack on the gorge belonged to Russia or to the Abkhaz separatists.

Russia has a peacekeeping force in Abkhazia under an agreement made following civil wars in the 1990s, when the region declared independence and formed links with Moscow.

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