Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.

How to Fix Your Life in 2009

Whew!

Last year at this time, we were wondering if it could get any worse.

It did. Trouble in the subprime market exploded into an across-the-board rout. The credit crunch evolved into a global financial crisis. Markets tanked. Mighty institutions fell. Recession took hold. Layoffs began to mount just as the holiday season got under way. Few people have been left untouched. And still, we don't know if we're through the worst of it.

If you're living in a house worth less than you owe on it, you aren't alone. Ditto if your retirement savings are down by double digits. Or if you're earning nearly zero interest on your savings, and yet unable to borrow at historically low rates. Or if you're looking for a job or worried about keeping the one you have.

Lisa Haney

All of which has given rise to the newest new normal. Exuberance and excess have made way for prudence and pragmatism. Frugality is, once again, a virtue. To help you settle into this strange new world, our reporters have dug deep into their beats. Modeled on Personal Journal's regular Quick Fix feature, the advice here covers a lot of ground, but shares a common theme: helping you make your dollars work harder.

Problem: You have a load of beaten-down stocks in your portfolio.
Solution: Consider giving some of that stock to your kids. There's a silver lining to stock prices' descent: You can give away more shares tax free. In 2008, an individual can give as much as $12,000 to each gift recipient before getting hit with gift taxes. That amount will rise to $13,000 in 2009. The gift helps reduce the size of your estate -- probably a good idea since the estate tax isn't likely to go away soon, financial advisers say. It also may allow the recipients to enjoy a nice rebound from today's depressed stock prices over the long haul.
Another approach: Consider a grantor retained annuity trust, or GRAT. You can put your beaten-down stock in the GRAT, name your children as beneficiaries, and receive an annuity from the trust based on a percentage of what you contributed. As long as you survive the trust term, often just a couple of years, any stock appreciation beyond a "hurdle rate" set by the government passes to the beneficiaries tax-free. That hurdle rate, currently 3.4%, is at historically low levels, and it's set to move even lower.

"If you ever thought of making lemonade out of lemons, this is the time to actually do it," says Bill Forsyth, senior fiduciary counsel at wealth-management firm Bessemer Trust.

—Eleanor Laise

Problem: Your older-model computer sucks up electricity.
Solution: Energy-management software lets you put your computer on a schedule to reduce the amount of electricity it uses.

Verdiem, a Seattle-based company that makes energy-management computer software for businesses, recently released a consumer-grade version of its software called Edison. The free software lets you set your computer on working and nonworking schedules. It also provides estimated savings reports that show how much carbon dioxide has been saved. It works on computers running Windows XP and Vista. (www.verdiem.com)

The Environmental Protection Agency (www.energystar.gov) also has a free energy-management program called EZ Wizard for computers running Windows 2000 or Windows XP. Google Desktop users can download a free plug-in called Energy Saver that works on Windows XP and Vista, but to use it you must first download Google Desktop at www.desktop.google.com/plugins.

—Joseph De Avila

Problem: You want to apply for new credit, but aren't sure if your credit is good enough.
Solution: Get a free credit score. Several Web sites -- Credit.com, CreditKarma.com and Quizzle.com -- allow consumers to check their credit scores free. Although CreditKarma and Quizzle offer scores developed by the credit-reporting companies, including TransUnion and Experian, and not the widely used FICO score developed by Fair Isaac Corp., they can still provide users with a quick snapshot of where they stand. At CreditKarma.com, consumers can estimate how certain actions -- such as applying for a new card, being late on a payment or paying on time -- will change their score.

It's also a good idea to check your detailed credit reports at least once a year, which you can do free of charge at annualcreditreport.com.

—Jane J. Kim

Problem: You're drowning in credit-card debt.
Solution: Consider working with a nonprofit credit-counseling agency. Consumers seeking help with debt need to tread carefully. As Americans' credit-card bills have spiraled out of control, the airwaves have filled with advertisements for "debt-settlement" services that say they'll help consumers settle debts for a fraction of what they owe. But they often charge high up-front fees, and their strategies can drag down clients' credit scores and even make their debt burden balloon.

Nonprofit credit-counseling agencies offer a different approach. After reviewing your financial situation, the agency may offer you a debt-management plan, which will help you steadily pay down the full amount owed over a period of roughly three to five years. Creditors will often reduce interest charges or waive fees for consumers participating in these plans.

A good place to start looking for a nonprofit credit counseling agency is www.debtadvice.org, a Web site maintained by the National Foundation for Credit Counseling. The NFCC sets guidelines on fees that member agencies can charge consumers and requires agencies to provide services free of charge if a consumer can't afford to pay. To find NFCC member agencies, click on "find a counselor now."

—Eleanor Laise

Problem: Those four-inch heels that cost a mint are too high to walk in.
Solution: Trim down those heels. Ask any veteran stiletto wearer. She most likely has a few pairs of high heels that she hardly ever wears because they hurt too much. An expert shoe-repair shop might be able to cut heels down to size. Shoe-repair specialists say that with few exceptions, they can shorten most stilettos by up to half an inch, the maximum amount allowed to maintain the shoe's original pitch and alignment.

"Even one-fourth inch can make a big difference to reduce the pressure on the ball of your foot," says Randy Lipson, owner of Cobblestone Quality Shoe Repair in St. Louis, which charges between $8 and $15 to cut down high heels. He does this by taking the heel apart, removing the metal rod inside the high heel, shaving it down and reattaching the heel to the shoe.

—Teri Agins

Problem: Your job hunt is hitting a dead end.
Solution: Start by researching your online reputation. Enter your name into search engines to see what employers might find. If you have a profile on a social-networking site, such as Facebook or MySpace, be sure to remove any inappropriate photos or comments. Invest time in networking: Studies show that most jobs are filled through referrals. Inform friends, family, former colleagues, alumni, fellow parishioners and others that you're looking for work and that you'd welcome their help. Attend business events, such as industry conferences and seminars that cater to your career field. Create profiles on career-related networking sites, such as LinkedIn, ExecuNet and Plaxo, and participate in discussion boards to develop online relationships.

Meanwhile, consider hiring a career coach who can critique your résumé and interviewing skills and suggest ways to improve them.

—Sarah E. Needleman

Problem: Your health plan refuses to cover a medical treatment.
Solution: Appeal the rejection. Start out by calling the insurer to see if the problem is a simple billing or procedural mistake that can be easily corrected. If not, appeal the decision. Most disputes center on one of two issues: whether your care is medically necessary, or whether it is something that's covered under your plan.

Either way, you'll want to secure copies of key insurance documents, including the denial letter and a full explanation of your plan's benefits, often called the "Evidence of Coverage." That will help you understand what's supposed to be paid for by your insurer. If your appeal centers on medical necessity, enlist the help of your doctor, who can write a letter explaining why you needed the treatment. You should also try to find medical studies backing your case.

If the health plan upholds its denial, you may have other places to turn. Most states have an outside review process for health-insurance appeals, though not all appeals are eligible. For more detailed advice about filing a health-insurance appeal, try the Web sites of the Kaiser Family Foundation and the Patient Advocate Foundation.

—Anna Wilde Mathews

Problem: You want to buy organic and name-brand foods without breaking the bank.
Solution: Take advantage of coupons. For those who don't want to go through the hassle of coupon-hunting through circulars, there are a number of Web-based services that offer them. Smartsource.com, coolsavings.com, and ppgazette.com link to the same coupons -- primarily for snack and personal-care products, such as Totino's Pizza Rolls and Bausch & Lomb ReNu contact lens solution -- and allow users to print them directly from the site. But with no search tool, locating the coupons you want may be time consuming. Also, coupons usually print only one or two to a page, so you may end up wasting a lot of paper.

Sites such as thecouponclippers.com, grocerycoupons.com, and centsoff.com, clip the coupons from newspaper inserts and mail them to you. They tend to have coupons on a wider assortment of items, including green cleaning products, brand-name goods and health foods. But the service comes at a cost. Some sites take a percentage of the savings offered by the coupons, while others charge a flat membership fee. Make sure the coupon bargains outweigh the cost of the service.

Several manufacturers offer coupons for new and popular products on their Web sites. Organic Valley, for instance, offers free and printable $1-off coupons on organic milk, cottage cheese and butter on organicvalley.com. But these sites may still require you to register with your email and mailing address in order to access the coupons.

—Anjali Athavaley

Problem: You need affordable health insurance, fast.
Solution: Comparison-shop online. Healthinsurance.com and eHealthinsurance.com give you detailed estimates of multiple health-insurance plans in your state and what's covered under them. You can apply online -- without having to fork over any medical records -- and in some cases hear back from providers in minutes. Healthinsurance.com also gives estimates for travel insurance and dental coverage. And eHealthinsurance has information on health savings accounts (HSAs) and options for small-business owners. The eHealthinsurance portal for student health insurance is also good for the budget-conscious undergrad or graduate student not covered under a parental policy. Discount cards are offered through the site.

—Mary Pilon

Problem: Your 529 college-savings account has been wiped out, and your teenager will soon head off for college.
Solution: Switch to more-conservative 529 investments, such as money-market mutual funds and CDs, to preserve what you have. Investors have typically been allowed to make one investment change per calendar year, but if you've already made one change this year, you can change it immediately if you change the plan's beneficiary or roll over the money to another 529 savings or prepaid plan. For 2009, the IRS issued a special rule that allows investors to make investment changes in their 529 plans twice a year. There is a risk, however, that people might tinker too much with their investments, says Mark Kantrowitz, publisher of FinAid.org. "If you pull out now, you're locking in losses," he says.

If possible, wait until your teenager is in his third or fourth year of college before you tap the plan so that you give the investments time to recover. If your plan is under water, you can also cash out without penalty or taxes (though you may have to pay state taxes if you got a state tax deduction for contributions) and possibly count the loss as a miscellaneous itemized deduction.

—Jane J. Kim

Problem: You're getting hit with overdraft and late fees at your bank.
Solution: Sign up for alerts from your bank. Many banks, including Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citibank, will offer to send you email or cellphone text alerts when your balances fall below a specific threshold. PNC Bank's new checking account, called "Virtual Wallet," combines checking, savings and high-yield-savings accounts and lets users program "Danger Days" that warn them when too much money has been drawn out. Another option is to sign up for a transfer service that will automatically tap a savings account or a line of credit or a credit card in case there is an overdraft in the checking account. You may pay a fee, plus interest on outstanding loans, for each transfer, although the costs should still be lower than an overdraft or bounced-check fee.

Consumers can also take advantage of free personal-finance Web sites, such as Mint.com, Wesabe.com, and QuickenOnline.com, that will break out the fees you pay in your checking account and offer tips on how to avoid those fees. Or, for those who ditch the bank altogether, brokerage firms can offer a lower-cost checking-account alternative. Account holders at Fidelity, for example, can link their checking-account held there to their brokerage account; any overdrafts will automatically pull money, as needed and without fees, from the cash portion of your brokerage account.

—Jane J. Kim

Problem: Your Individual Retirement Account has plummeted in value.
Solution: Convert what's left to a Roth IRA. When you roll over traditional IRA assets to a Roth, you have to pay the income taxes up front on the account's value -- but those values, and income-tax rates, are both relatively low at the moment, says Ed Slott, an IRA consultant in Rockville Centre, N.Y.

With a Roth account, there are generally no taxes on withdrawals or any future earnings, unlike with traditional IRAs. There's also no mandatory distribution schedule -- again in contrast with traditional IRAs, from which account holders must begin taking minimum distributions by April 1 of the year following the year they turn 70½ years old.

Converting to a Roth could work well either as a year-end fix or as a way to plan ahead: Legislation approved by Congress earlier this month waives any required withdrawals from traditional IRAs for 2009. That means you could roll over assets from a traditional IRA to a Roth without having to first take a mandatory distribution. So more of your assets could wind up protected from future taxes and withdrawal requirements, Mr. Slott says.

One other advantage: You can leave a Roth account intact for your heirs. Heirs other than your spouse would have to take required withdrawals each year, but they generally wouldn't owe tax on those withdrawals.

To be eligible to convert traditional IRA assets to a Roth, your modified adjusted gross income must be no more than $100,000 a year, either for an individual or a married couple filing jointly. Neither a required IRA distribution nor the converted amount would count against that limit, but they still count as taxable income. See IRS Publication 590, at irs.gov, for more information about traditional and Roth IRAs.

—Kelly Greene

Problem: Someone posted embarrassing photos of you on Facebook or MySpace.
Solution: "Untag" your photo or block who can see your photos.

Tagging is used in Facebook to tell users who is in a photo. If someone posts and tags you in an unflattering photo, you have some options. One thing you can do is de-tag the photo. You do this by going to the page that has the photo and clicking on the "de-tag" link next to your name. The photo can still be viewed in the photo album of the person who uploaded it, so if you are really worried about the photo, you should contact the person who posted it and ask them to take it down.

Another option is to tweak the settings on your profile's privacy settings. Under the section titled "Photos Tagged of You," specify which groups or friends can view your photos. If you use Facebook for professional networking, you may want to limit who can see your private photos.

On MySpace, if one of your friends tags you in a photo, the site sends you a message asking for your permission to allow it. If you decline to be tagged, your name won't be associated with the photo. But friends of the person who posted the photo will still be able to see it. If you do accept to be tagged, you can de-tag yourself later by going to the photo's page and clicking on the red "X" next to your name.

As a last resort, you can ask MySpace to take down a photo. Each photo page has a link to report a photo. MySpace will remove photos on a case-by-case basis. Facebook only removes photos that violate its terms of service.

—Joseph De Avila

Problem: You don't know how much money to stash away for your child's future college tuition.
Solution: Develop a savings plan. The encyclopedic financial-aid Web site FinAid.org has a section with more than 50 calculators, but the "savings plan designer" is among the most useful. It shows exactly how much you should plunk into an interest-bearing account each month in order to reach a certain savings goal. It also asks how much you've already saved and what the interest rate on those savings has been. Then you punch in how many years you have before your child enrolls, and how frequently you want to contribute.

Experts say parents who are financially able should generally expect to pay at least half to two-thirds of their children's college costs through a combination of savings, current income and loans. According to the calculator, someone with $20,000 saved up already and with 18 years to go before the child graduates should aim to contribute $818.25 a month to cover half of projected costs at a private college, making certain assumptions.

—Anne Marie Chaker

Problem: You're too nervous to invest in the stock market, but your bank is offering paltry yields on CDs.
Solution: Auction your cash to the highest bidder. At MoneyAisle.com, more than 100 small and midsize banks compete for consumer deposits through live auctions. When a customer comes to the site and asks for the terms of a CD or high-yield savings account, the banks bid against one another -- through automated auction software that runs on the Web site -- to win the deposit. The cost is free to consumers, and you don't have to commit to investing anything before you see the results of an auction. Participating banks, which are all FDIC-insured, are screened by an independent bank-rating agency to filter out the riskiest banks.

Savers can also find high-yield CDs with brokered CDs, which are offered by banks and brokerage firms around the country, and typically sold through brokerage firms and financial intermediaries. As the big brokerage firms expand their deposit business, many -- including Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch -- are offering attractive yields to lure buyers. Keep in mind that brokered CDs have different rules. If you cash out before they mature, you may lose some of your principal.

—Jane J. Kim

Problem: You need to find a new job but haven't updated your résumé in more than five years.
Solution: Use a professional résumé writer -- but take the time to shop carefully. Ask for sample résumés, making sure they look customized and not like cookie-cutter templates. Contact previous customers to verify claims of professional prowess. If you would rather save money and do it yourself, consider starting with an objective statement that specifies what kind of work you're seeking. Then outline your work history by showing accomplishments for each assignment that demonstrate how you've benefited your past employers. When applying for specific positions, tailor the document by highlighting relevant qualifications. For example, if an ad says that the ability to work well in teams is required, make sure to list any group projects you were involved in.

Finally, have someone you trust proofread the document to ensure that it is clear and correct.

—Sarah E. Needleman

Problem: You want to curb medical costs without jeopardizing your health.
Solution: Research what care and preventive measures are truly necessary. While you can skip unnecessary scans and forgo elective plastic surgery, it is important to get the recommended screening tests for cancer and other diseases, as well as immunizations that can prevent illnesses like the flu.

Go to www.ahrq.gov/consumer/index.html to download the government's recommendations, including how often to get your blood pressure checked and when to have a colonoscopy. The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force's recommended tests are generally covered by insurers.

Keep immunizations up to date. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now recommend that all adults over age 60 get vaccinated against herpes zoster, or shingles. You can download its 2008 recommended adult immunization schedule at www.cdc.gov/vaccines/recs/schedules/adult-schedule.htm.

Skipping medications can be especially dangerous, so talk to your pharmacist about whether a cheaper generic brand is available, or whether it is safe to split pills. There are also medication-assistance programs for which you may qualify; check needymeds.org.

—Laura Landro

Problem: You work indoors, live in a cold climate and wear sunscreen to protect your skin -- and you wonder if you're getting enough vitamin D.
Solution: Have your vitamin D level checked. Experts think many people aren't getting enough these days, and that can put you at higher risk for a variety of problems, including osteoporosis, heart attacks, high blood pressure, multiple sclerosis, macular degeneration, mental illness, chronic pain and many cancers. Your doctor can check your D level with a blood test, which costs about $100 and is usually covered by insurance. Make sure the test measures 25-hydroxyvitamin D, not 1, 25-dihydroxyvitamin D. A concentration of less than 20 nanograms per milliliter is considered deficient, and more than 30 npm is healthier.

If you are low, you can boost your level with inexpensive supplements. Current U.S. guidelines call for 200 international units per day from birth through age 50; 400 IUs from 51 through 70 and 600 IUs from age 71 on. Many medical organizations now think that's too low. The American Academy of Pediatrics says children should have 400 IUs a day, and the National Osteroporsis Foundation thinks adults over age 50 should have at least 800 to 1,000.

In most of the U.S., being in the sun for at least 20 minutes a day can boost your D level nicely but also raise your risk of developing skin cancer.

—Melinda Beck

Problem: Your produce spoils before you can finish it.
Solution: Optimize how you choose and store your food. How long produce lasts depends on the shape it's in when you buy it, experts say. Be careful not to pick fruits and vegetables that are bruised or damaged. And make sure the supermarket is the last stop on your trip home, so that groceries don't get warm sitting in the car.

Storing produce correctly makes a difference in shelf life. Fruits and vegetables, for example, should be stored separately in a refrigerator so that ethylene gas released by certain fruits doesn't accelerate the ripening of the vegetables. Items such as tomatoes and bananas are best kept at room temperature. Food-science experts say it is also a good idea to rotate the food in your fridge so that the items that are more perishable are at the front and get consumed first. If you notice fruits or vegetables growing mold, toss them out immediately so that they don't contaminate other foods in your produce bins.

—Anjali Athavaley

Problem: You need more money for college quickly and don't know where to turn.
Solution: Look for scholarships. Peruse the scholarship offerings online from the College Board (collegeboard.com), Scholarships.com and Fastweb.com. Many have grants that have rolling deadlines and easy, online applications.

If you're maxed out on lower-interest federal loans, consider comparison shopping with SimpleTution.com or StudentLoanMonkey.com. The sites allow prospective students to shop around for student loans and avoid a hard inquiry on their credit reports. As the credit crunch has crimped student borrowing and increased interest rates on private loans, SimpleTuition and StudentLoanMonkey will show you available offers from a wide swath of lenders, not just ones that market heavily.

—Mary Pilon

Problem: You need to find more ways to tighten your budget.
Solution: Check out new Web sites that help reduce your monthly bills. BillShrink.com helps consumers save money by finding tailored deals on cellphone plans and credit cards based on their individual needs. The site, which will analyze a consumer's spending patterns, credit score and any existing credit-card balances, will suggest the best credit card to maximize rewards or lower fees and interest rates. If you're looking for a lower-cost cellphone plan, the site searches through plans from all the major carriers and returns the best matches, based on how many minutes you use each month and where you live and work. Another recently launched site, ratesurfer.com, will alert you when rates change on your credit-card accounts and, if you let it, will move your balances between accounts to make sure you're paying the least amount of interest. At SmartHippo.com, homebuyers can review and rank lenders and compare mortgage rates with rates that other people with similar risk profiles have obtained.

Other free personal-finance Web sites and many banks will provide consumers with a snapshot of all of their bills in one place while also providing budgeting tools to help them keep track of their spending.

—Jane J. Kim

Problem: You're lost, you don't have a map, and you need directions.
Solution: Use your cellphone to get directions by text message. There are several free services available that will send you directions, and you don't need a fancy phone like a Blackberry or an iPhone. To use Google's service, send a text to 466-453. (It spells "Google.") In the body of the text, include your starting location followed by your destination. (for example Second St. and Third Ave. NY NY to 45th St. and 8th Ave. NY NY) You will then receive multiple text messages with driving directions to your destination. The number of texts that you will receive depends on how many steps are included in the directions.

If you are already behind the wheel, avoid texting and call 347-328-4667 (It spells "directions."). With this program, you tell an automated service where you are and where your destination is. After this, you'll get several text messages with your directions. While these services are free, you may incur charges under your cellphone plan.

—Joseph De Avila

Problem: Your employer just suspended its 401(k) matching contribution.
Solution: Save more, and consider an individual retirement account. Companies slammed by the economic downturn, like General Motors Corp., have been suspending their 401(k) matching contributions. While the match may have been a major force motivating you to contribute to the plan, your employer's cost cutting doesn't give you an excuse to cut back on your own saving.

First, make sure you've established an emergency fund outside the 401(k). It's always a good idea to have about six months' worth of living expenses stashed away in cash. And since the match suspension may be a sign that your employer is in financial trouble, that emergency fund can help ease anxiety over sudden layoffs.

Ideally, you should also boost your own contributions to the 401(k) to make up for the amount your employer is no longer contributing. "The employee's need to save for retirement doesn't go away just because the match does," says Trisha Brambley, president of Resources for Retirement, a retirement-plan advisory firm in Newtown, Pa.

Explore other tax-deferred savings options as well. The lack of a match puts the 401(k) and IRA on a more equal footing. You might want to save first in the account that gives you the best investment options and lowest fees. But keep in mind that any tax deduction you get for an IRA contribution may be reduced or eliminated if you're covered by an employer retirement plan, depending on your income and tax filing status.

—Eleanor Laise

Problem: You want to minimize those annoying fees that jack up the cost of travel.
Solution: Consider signing up for hotel and airline loyalty programs or credit cards that let you travel without paying some fees. Wyndham Hotel Group, owned by Wyndham Worldwide Corp., and Omni Hotels both let members of their free loyalty programs access wireless Internet at many of their hotels free. (Non-members are charged a daily access fee.) Continental Airlines waives its $15 first-checked bag fee for Continental Chase credit and debit cardholders, and waives its second-checked bag fee for the highest-tier Chase cardholders, though the credit cards have annual fees of up to hundreds of dollars.

Also, some airlines offer a discount on checked-bag fees that are paid in advance on their Web site. For example, United Airlines is offering customers a 20% discount until Jan. 31. on the fee to check a first bag if it's paid for in advance on United.com. Spirit Airlines gives $10 off the first checked bag to those who prepay on its Web site.

—Sarah Nassauer

Problem: You're overwhelmed by unpaid hospital bills.
Solution: Your hospital may be willing to give you a discount on the bill in exchange for your agreeing to set up a payment plan or pay some costs up front. If you're uninsured, appeal to your hospital's sense of fairness, noting that the uninsured are frequently charged far more than the insured for the same services.

Also, request a copy of your hospital's financial-assistance policies and look into charity care. If you qualify for Medicaid, the program often pays for care retroactively. Seek help from consumer groups. Some organizations include the Medical Billing Advocates of America, Access Project and Patient Advocate Foundation.

Try to avoid putting medical bills on credit cards or using home loans to pay them off. The consequences of not paying credit-card companies or home lenders -- such as high interest rates or even foreclosure -- can be greater than those from not paying hospitals.

If collection agencies come calling, promptly send the collector a letter requesting verification of the debt. Then, the collector can't resume collection activities until it sends you confirmation of the debt. You can also write collectors a letter telling them to stop contacting you, though this doesn't mean your debt has gone away. The Federal Trade Commission explains your rights:

Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.

As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.

In Moscow, Igor Panarin's Forecasts Are All the Rage; America 'Disintegrates' in 2010

ANDREW OSBORN

MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.

Igor Panarin

In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger."

Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.

But it's his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin's views also fit neatly with the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.

A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.

"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.

Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control.

In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin's ideas are now being widely discussed among local experts. He presented his theory at a recent roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The country's top international relations school has hosted him as a keynote speaker. During an appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the station cut between his comments and TV footage of lines at soup kitchens and crowds of homeless people in the U.S. The professor has also been featured on the Kremlin's English-language propaganda channel, Russia Today.

Mr. Panarin's apocalyptic vision "reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today," says Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia. "It's much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union."

Mr. Pozner and other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss Mr. Panarin's predictions. "Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people," says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr. Panarin's theories don't hold water.

Mr. Panarin's résumé includes many years in the Soviet KGB, an experience shared by other top Russian officials. His office, in downtown Moscow, shows his national pride, with pennants on the wall bearing the emblem of the FSB, the KGB's successor agency. It is also full of statuettes of eagles; a double-headed eagle was the symbol of czarist Russia.

The professor says he began his career in the KGB in 1976. In post-Soviet Russia, he got a doctorate in political science, studied U.S. economics, and worked for FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency. He says he did strategy forecasts for then-President Boris Yeltsin, adding that the details are "classified."

In September 1998, he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival. It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010.

"When I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise," he remembers. He says most in the audience were skeptical. "They didn't believe me."

At the end of the presentation, he says many delegates asked him to autograph copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S.

He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.

California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.

"It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time." A framed satellite image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread hangs from his office wall. "It's not there for no reason," he says with a sly grin.

Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia's biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt "a pyramid scheme," and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington's role as a global financial regulator.

Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama "can work miracles," he wrote. "But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

The article prompted a question about the White House's reaction to Prof. Panarin's forecast at a December news conference. "I'll have to decline to comment," spokeswoman Dana Perino said amid much laughter.

For Prof. Panarin, Ms. Perino's response was significant. "The way the answer was phrased was an indication that my views are being listened to very carefully," he says.

The professor says he's convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union -- 15 years beforehand. "When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him," says Prof. Panarin.

Colombia's Leader Digs In

Colombia's Leader Digs In

After U.S.-Backed Successes, Uribe Weighs Extending Reign

DAVID LUHNOW

BOGOTÁ, Colombia -- Álvaro Uribe was 7 years old when he announced to his family that he intended to become president of Colombia. Fifty years later, in the eyes of many, he is the man who rescued his beleaguered nation from collapse.

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Uribe's Colombia

Read more about Mr. Uribe's six years in office.

Plus, listen to a call in Spanish and read a translation of a conversation between Mr. Uribe and a top aide, related to an alleged bribe to prevent the extradition of a drug dealer. Transcript contains coarse language.

When he was inaugurated in 2002, Latin America's oldest and largest Communist insurgency, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, was strong enough to lob mortars at the presidential palace during the ceremony. Right-wing paramilitary groups were rampaging through the countryside killing suspected rebel supporters. Mr. Uribe soon put the FARC on the run, and consequently persuaded the paramilitaries to disarm. The dividend for his countrymen: an economic boom.

But lately Mr. Uribe's political narrative is taking some complex twists. He has refused to rule out running for a third term, which isn't allowed under Colombian law. He and his supporters are working to change the law. Critics claim he is morphing into a familiar figure in Latin American politics -- the caudillo, or strongman.

Halfway through his second term, scandals are piling up. Nearly a fifth of Colombia's Congress -- nearly all supporters of the president and including his cousin -- are under investigation or in jail for allegedly receiving campaign money and other support from illegal paramilitary groups. In the past month, a dozen military brass were implicated in a scheme to murder civilians and dress up them up as rebel combatants to pump up body counts, presumably to please their hard-charging commander in chief.

Many in Bogotá and Washington say a third term could risk Mr. Uribe's legacy.

"If he had quit at the end of his first term, he would have been a national hero with no questions asked," says Guillermo Perry, a Colombian who was the former chief economist for Latin America and the Caribbean at the World Bank. "If he quits at the end of his second term, he'll still be a national hero, but with some questions. If he keeps going, he risks not being seen as a national hero."

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, an anti-American crusader, recently announced that he wants to stay in power indefinitely. The prospect that Mr. Uribe is moving in a similar direction could emerge as a foreign-policy headache for President-elect Barack Obama. Mr. Uribe, who can recite the Gettysburg Address by heart, has been the most steadfast U.S. ally in Latin America, and has received considerable U.S. backing. A conservative, he has preached democratic values and offers a regional counterweight to the man in Caracas.

Mr. Uribe hasn't gutted democratic institutions as Mr. Chávez has. But he hasn't groomed any successor, and his administration is largely a one-man show. He micromanages the country to such an extent that he even checks the bathroom stalls of provincial airports when he arrives on state business. Critics say he cannot tolerate dissent. "He represents an old feature of Latin America, but something new to Colombia -- an authoritarian, a caudillo," says César Gaviria, a former president.

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President Uribe, delivering a speech during a military ceremony in Bogota in November. The possibility of Mr. Uribe seeking a third term could jeopardize his legacy, say many in Bogotá and Washington.

Latin America has suffered greatly from strongmen since its independence from Spain -- from Argentina's Juan Perón to Chile's Augusto Pinochet to Cuba's Fidel Castro. Over the past two decades, democracy has spread throughout the region. But lingering poverty, corruption and crime have spurred voters in some countries to elect authoritarian figures who promise to end problems forcefully, threatening democratic institutions in the proc"A third term doesn't set a good precedent, particularly when you have neighbors like Chávez trying to do the same thing," says a U.S. administration official.In a local radio interview in March, Mr. Uribe played coy about his re-election intentions. "We seek to assure the re-election of [our security policies] and investor confidence," he said.

Mr. Uribe's advisers compare the situation to the U.S. during the Depression and World War II, when Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected four times. The FARC still has 9,000 men under arms. "Our country is still at war, and we need to finish the job," says Vice President Francisco Santos.

Mr. Uribe is a trim, bookish lawyer who wears spectacles and is said to look like an older Harry Potter. He begins his day well before 5 a.m. and often doesn't end it until after midnight, leaving a trail of exhausted aides in his wake. To maintain his energy, he exercises regularly, practices qigong, a Chinese breathing exercise, yoga and homeopathic medicine. "His energy comes from the purity of his desire to serve his country," says Elsa Arango, his homeopathic doctor.

There are two sides to Mr. Uribe. He is a technocrat who studied at Harvard and Oxford and works on his English by watching the BBC every morning as he rides his stationary bike. In 2005, Jeffrey Immelt, the chief executive officer of General Electric Co., visited Colombia after hearing about its turnaround under Mr. Uribe. After a two-hour meeting with the president, Mr. Immelt told associates: "Now that is a chief executive."

The other side comes from being raised in a rural culture of powerful landowners, horses and guns. Mr. Uribe sometimes views the world in black and white, such as in his treatment of Carlos Lozano, who edits the weekly Communist Party newspaper La Voz. On several occasions, Mr. Uribe has publicly attacked the editor as a FARC supporter -- dangerous words in a nation where right-wing death squads have killed thousands of leftists. After each outburst, says Mr. Lozano, Vice President Santos "calls to say the president lost his temper, is sorry about what he said, and is increasing my bodyguards and the strength of the bulletproofing on my car." Mr. Santos confirmed that account.

The first of five children born to a wealthy cattle rancher, Mr. Uribe grew up on a ranch in rural Antioquia state. His father was a lively man who worked and played hard. Mr. Uribe was more taciturn, taking after his mother, a pioneer in Colombia's suffrage movement and a political junkie.

Antioquia's state capital, Medellin, earned world-wide notoriety as the hub of a cocaine cartel and for its capo, Pablo Escobar. As a child, Mr. Uribe competed in horseback-riding contests with three distant relatives, the Ochoa brothers, who grew up to become drug lords. Mr. Uribe's associations with such figures, however fleeting, have dogged him throughout his career, despite a lack of evidence tying him or his campaigns to traffickers. A 1991 report on Colombian drug traffickers by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, the intelligence arm of the Pentagon, listed Mr. Uribe as a "close personal friend" of Mr. Escobar. U.S. officials have since discounted the report, as have most experts on the drug trade.

At the University of Antioquia in the late 1970s, he stood out in a politically charged atmosphere dominated by Communists. "I remember the first year of studying law, all our materials were Marxist," he said in an interview in June on the presidential plane. "One day the professor walked in and said he was giving up the classics, and that day he forgot about Socrates, Aristotle, St. Augustine....That kind of thing led many young Colombians to join the guerrillas."

Associated Press

President Uribe, at a meeting in Piendamo, Colombia, last month.

At student assemblies, Mr. Uribe would challenge the leftists' dogma, according to several people who knew him then. The ensuing mockery only seemed to make him more confident of his views, these people say. "Only two weeks after I had met him, I remember thinking, 'That boy is going to be president of Colombia,'" says Carlos Gaviria, then his university professor and currently an opposition politician.

The young lawyer shot up the ranks of the Liberal Party, one of Colombia's two traditional parties, becoming senator at age 32 and governor of Antioquia in 1995. As governor, he earned a reputation as a capable administrator. More controversially, he supported armed neighborhood-watch groups that were later accused of massacring suspected leftist guerrillas. Mr. Uribe has said the groups were disbanded as soon as their illegal actions were uncovered.

His rural roots gave him a fresh perspective on Colombia's troubles. For decades, the country was ruled by an elite clique, mostly from Bogotá, that sometimes seemed indifferent to the violence raging in the countryside and unsure how to solve it. "The guerrillas weren't challenged by society the way they should have been," Mr. Uribe said in the June interview. "And that let them think they could simply take power through violent means."

Mr. Uribe knew firsthand of the suffering caused by such violence. In 1983, the FARC killed his father in a kidnapping attempt at the family ranch. Mr. Uribe himself found the body. Colombian officials say that over the course of Mr. Uribe's political career, he has survived at least 19 assassination attempts.

Following a FARC death threat in 1997, Mr. Uribe won a British Council scholarship to study for a year at St. Anthony's College at Oxford. "He was the only guy at Oxford -- the only guy -- who wore his backpack with both straps across his back," says Jaime Bermudez, who met Mr. Uribe at Oxford and is now Colombia's foreign minister. "He is definitely a nerd."

That same year, conservative Andres Pastrana won the presidency on a platform of making peace with the FARC, and promptly handed over an area the size of Switzerland to the rebels to use as a base to conduct peace talks. The rebels instead used it as a base to carry out kidnappings and attacks. Mr. Uribe, convinced that neither major political party would end the conflict, returned to Colombia and announced a third-party candidacy based on waging war against the rebels. Early polls gave him just 2% of the vote.

But the FARC lost support from ordinary Colombians as it sabotaged electricity pylons, bombed a Bogotá restaurant, killing a 5-year-old girl, and tried to blow up the main reservoir supplying water to the capital. The group kidnapped female presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt. With each incident, Mr. Uribe's poll numbers climbed. On May 26, 2002, he won 53% of the vote in a crowded field -- a landslide.

"He recognized early on that Colombia's basic need was security and authority," says Malcolm Deas, Mr. Uribe's professor at Oxford and a staunch supporter.

The new president wasted no time going after the guerrillas. He persuaded Congress to pass an emergency tax hike on businesses to boost military spending. Andres Peñate, then deputy defense minister, recalls that Mr. Uribe called him one day and asked how many people had been kidnapped in Colombia the previous week. Mr. Peñate said he didn't know. Mr. Uribe told him seven. "Do you want to know their names?" the president asked. Mr. Peñate says he made sure he knew the answer from then on.

Critics say Mr. Uribe's fixation on eliminating the FARC has caused him to neglect longstanding problems of inequality, land distribution and poor infrastructure. Colombia's highways, for instance, remain in terrible shape. Many Colombians blamed the president for not keeping a closer eye on financial pyramid schemes that collapsed last month and have left tens of thousands of Colombians in the lurch.

His intervention in the economy has also drawn criticism. He has given tax breaks to encourage certain industries, and has raised various tariffs to offer trade protection. "He is very sure of himself, which is a great thing for battling the guerrillas, but is not so good if you have some unorthodox ideas about the economy," says Mr. Perry, the former World Bank economist.

When the central bank raised interest rates earlier this year in an effort to control inflation, Mr. Uribe blasted the move as unnecessary. Many career bureaucrats in areas such as the Finance Ministry have left because they feel they have no voice, according to former ministry officials. "He's got the technocrats on the run," says Rudolf Hommes, a finance minister under Mr. Uribe who quit in 2003.

Government officials say Colombia's rapid economic growth rates are evidence that Mr. Uribe's policies work.

This year, Mr. Uribe's biggest confrontation has been with the Supreme Court, which has been investigating the so-called para-politics scandal. In 2002, paramilitary gangs funded the campaigns of many of Mr. Uribe's supporters and used violence to eliminate rivals and intimidate voters, according to court documents and testimony. Many right-wing militias were involved in drug trafficking and were designated "terrorist" organizations by the U.S. for the killing of civilians.

The president's office tried to strip the Supreme Court of its power to investigate crimes by lawmakers. It dropped the initiative under pressure in October.

In September, two representatives of a feared paramilitary leader met with Mr. Uribe's main judicial adviser in the presidential palace. The paramilitary men had promised to bring audiotapes that showed that the Supreme Court was carrying out the investigation as a vendetta against Mr. Uribe. But the tapes weren't incriminating.

Mr. Uribe said his government was obligated to pursue any complaints of wrongdoing by any Colombian institution, and that the paramilitary men had no arrest warrants out against them. Critics disagree. "You cross the line when you start conspiring with criminals to discredit the court," says Adam Isaacson, a Colombia expert at the Center for International Policy in Washington.

In October, the New York-based advocacy group Human Rights Watch issued a report criticizing the Uribe administration for hampering the Supreme Court's investigation into the para-politics scandal. Mr. Uribe responded by calling José Miguel Vivanco, the group's director for the Americas, an "accomplice" and "defender" of the FARC.

After a similar incident last year, Mr. Uribe received a letter from 11 U.S. senators upbraiding him for his record of "inappropriate statements" against human-rights defenders, journalists, judges and others. Among the senators who signed: Mr. Obama.

Ultimately, whether Mr. Uribe runs again may not be up to him. Polls in the past month have shown a marked dip in his popularity. Two weeks ago, Colombia's lower house passed a bill barring Mr. Uribe from a third term. His supporters immediately said they would try to amend it in the Senate to keep his re-election hopes alive.