Saturday, February 7, 2009

FARC frees hostages to gain political ground

Battered by military setbacks, Colombia’s Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) rebels are freeing hostages in an attempt to gain political ground and fueling speculation talks with Latin America’s oldest guerrilla force could be edging closer.

Colombia FARC
Picture: AFP

A police guard stands before a Brazilian helicopter, flying under the flag of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). Former Deputy Sigifredo Lopez, who was kidnapped by the FARC on April 11, 2002, was among the hostages freed.

The FARC this week freed four members of the armed forces and the last two politicians held in their jungle camps in what rebel commanders say was a humanitarian gesture to help broker an exchange of 22 other captives for jailed guerrillas.

But negotiations with President Alvaro Uribe’s hardline government appear far off unless the sides soften long-held demands and rebels agree to stop political kidnapping as a weapon in their four-decade war against the Colombian state.

Before 2010 presidential elections, analysts say the FARC wants to regain political capital and clean up its image after losing three top commanders and sparking outrage among Colombians fed up with their hostage-taking practices.

"They need to reconcile themselves with Colombian society,“ said Sigifredo Lopez, a lawmaker freed on Thursday after nearly seven years in FARC hands. "This is a political gesture and we have to see it as a step in the right direction.“

Once a mighty army that controlled large parts of Colombia, FARC rebels are at their weakest in decades, driven back into remote jungles and mountains with little popular support for their insurgency and no chance of a military victory.

Uribe’s U.S.-backed security drive has cut off the FARC’s ability to move around, infiltrated their ranks and disrupted their communications. The conservative leader says the rebel releases are a ploy by a weakened insurgency.

With Uribe’s re-election to a third term in 2010 looking increasingly complicated, analysts say the FARC could be calculating that unilateral hostage releases will give them maneuvering room with a more flexible government.

"The messages they send are specific -- we are still here, we are still on the public agenda. More than a message of ’let’s sit down,’ it is a traditional message in a year before elections,“ said Gerson Arias at Ideas Para La Paz foundation.

The releases could be even more pragmatic. With rebel units under military pressure, holding and guarding hostages has become more complicated and the political cost too high.

Alfonso Cano, the FARC’s new top commander, may also be sending a clear message to the rank-and-file that the guerrilla commanders are capable despite recent military blows, said Markus Schultze-Kraft at the International Crisis Group.

"We believe this is a political action with the goal of increasing internal cohesion,“ he said. "It is so FARC members can see again that the secretariat is functioning.“

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Still, the release of the FARC’s last high-profile civilian hostage this week is fueling optimism the rebels are moving closer to a swap of police and soldiers they consider military prisoners for rebel fighters jailed by the state.

Brazil’s involvement in providing helicopters to ferry hostages out of the jungle also brings a regional powerhouse accepted by both sides into Colombia’s long conflict.

Sen. Piedad Cordoba, lawmaker who has brokered the recent releases, said she came back from the last release this week with a communique from FARC commander Cano.

Cordoba has yet to reveal whether Cano’s letter offers a shift in rebel position. But just the fact there is contact between the rebels and Cordoba’s commission is a step, says Carlos Lozano, editor of Communist party newspaper Voz.

But Uribe’s government and guerrillas are for now sticking by their demands for any hostage negotiations. The FARC has insisted that Uribe pull troops back from an area the size of New York City to facilitate hostage talks.

Uribe, popular for his crackdown on the rebels, refuses their demands, saying it would allow the guerrillas to regroup as they did when his predecessor created a safe haven.

His government’s strategy has fractured the rebels and authorities say they could instead negotiate with individual FARC units so they surrender with hostages they are guarding.

The guerrillas are also unclear about who they want to be part of any prisoner exchange and even that idea has also lost ground after some jailed FARC commanders said they would refuse to take part in any deal.

"We are left with a situation where the political kidnappings which the FARC believed would be its best card in negotiating, have failed,“ said Claudia Lopez, a political analyst in Bogota.

FARC -- Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia -- could hold on to some hostages as bargaining chips with this or the next government while carrying out bombings and ambushes in an attempt to show weaknesses in the government security policy.

"Their motivation is not strictly humanitarian,“ said Alfredo Rangel, at the Bogota-based Security and Democracy think tank. "With the hostages held the longest they believe they have a better tool to pressure the government.“

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