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Preparing for government?

This time around, coming third may not be such a bad result for the Liberal Democrats

Apr 14th 2010 | From The Economist online

PITY the Liberal Democrats. Britain’s third-biggest political party is usually condemned to irrelevance by a voting system that hands out no prizes for third place. But the launch of their manifesto earlier today generated plenty of interest.

That was at least partly to do with the party’s policies, some of which are genuinely eye-catching: a big rise in tax-free allowances, for instance, which would see around 3.4m more Britons pay no tax at all, or a plan to scrap the country’s nuclear weapons.

But the bigger reason is that, this time, third place may be enough for a seat in government. The latest opinion polls suggest that the gap between Labour and the Conservatives is still narrowing (one, in today’s Times, put the difference at just 3 percentage points). If such polls are accurate, neither Labour nor the Tories could expect an absolute majority. Whichever party ends up in government would need allies to pass its legislation-so the Lib Dems could end up as kingmakers.

Nick Clegg, the party’s leader, is understandably exasperated with questions about post-election alliances stealing the limelight from his party’s actual policies. But a cottage industry in speculation has grown up, and both Labour and the Conservatives are pondering how best to woo Mr Clegg should they need to. Was the Lib Dems’ recent attack on Labour’s civil liberties record a calculated snub? What about Mr Clegg’s criticism of David Cameron, the Tory leader, over his warnings of economic disaster should the Conservatives lose?

The speculation is fuelled by the fact that neither of the two bigger parties is an obvious choice of partner. That reflects the Lib Dems’ somewhat split personality. The party is a fusion of the old Liberal party of Gladstone and Grimond and the Social Democratic Party, a Labour splinter group formed in 1981. Members are typically caricatured as leftish and trendy (Tony Blair entertained the notion of an alliance during the mid-1990s). But the present leadership is made up of so-called “Orange Bookers”; classical, free-market liberals who probably have more in common with the state-shrinking Tories than with Labour.

For his part, Mr Clegg says that the party which won the "strongest mandate" at the polls would have the moral right to form a government-but is vague on whether he is referring to seats won or votes cast (which could conceivably be different).And the price he exacts for his friendship could be high: the Lib Dems are long-standing advocates for proportional representation, which would boost their numbers in Parliament at the expense of the big two parties. Vince Cable, their shadow chancellor, has been transformed by the financial crisis into a sort of national economic guru. Betting readers might like to wager on him being the next chancellor.