Will Crist Cross?

The governor's veto of an education bill suggests that he might run as an independent.

JOHN FUND

Last year, Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter decided he faced certain defeat in a Republican primary and so switched to the Democratic Party. The latest Quinnipiac Poll out today shows Florida Governor Charlie Crist trailing Marco Rubio by 56% to 33% in the GOP primary for U.S. Senate. This has prompted speculation Mr. Crist will pull a "half Specter" and decide to run as an independent. The poll suggests he would have a decent chance to squeak out a victory in a three-man race against Mr. Rubio and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek.

"If Crist remains in the GOP primary, and absent the type of game-changing scandal of which there is no sign, the Governor faces the political equivalent of climbing a 90-degree mountain," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll. "But in a three-way, he has a possible path to the U.S. Senate."

A clue to Mr. Crist's thinking may come Friday, when the governor must decide whether to veto or sign a high-profile bill that would take tenure away from newly hired public school teachers and link future pay hikes to student test scores. Mr. Crist says he's studying the measure, which is strongly backed by the conservatives he needs to win the GOP primary. The bill arouses less enthusiasm among independents. For now, Mr. Crist is using the education bill as a shield to avoid questions about his political future.

His campaign office affirmed last week he would run in the GOP primary, but Mr. Crist himself on Wednesday ducked a question about possibly running instead as an independent, telling reporters: "Believe it or not, I'm really focused on this [education bill] and it's pretty all-consuming." The filing deadline for the Senate primary is April 30, at which point Mr. Crist will have to decide what banner he will be running under.