Another direction

Another direction

BRATISLAVA

SLOVAKIA'S election was supposed to be “reassuringly boring”. The country’s populist prime minister, Robert Fico, whose party Smer-SD (Direction-Social Democracy), boasted a seemingly unassailable 36% in opinion polls, was confident of re-election: the only question was which party he would choose as coalition partner.

But Slovakia chose to change direction yesterday. Though Mr Fico's nominally social-democratic party did win almost 35% of the vote, up nearly 6% from the 2006 election, his allies did poorly. The opposition parties (two new and two old) won a comfortable majority of 79 seats in the 150-member parliament and can thus form a governing coalition.

A visibly tired Mr Fico told journalists at 5:30 on Sunday morning that his party is ready to be a “point-blank opposition to this government”. Earlier, he said that he “definitely didn’t lose his appetite for politics”.

The newcomers' success reflects voters' attitude towards Mr Fico's populist and nationalist style. Freedom and Solidarity (SaS), a free-market party launched by Slovakia’s flat tax guru Richard Sulik, won an unexpected 12.1%. Most-Hid, which combines the Slovak and Hungarian words for “bridge” and hopes to heal the country's ethnic divide, received 8.1%; polls had forecast around 5.5%.

The main centre-right parties did well too: the next prime minister is likely to be Iveta Radicova (pictured above, left) of the Slovak Democratic and Christian Union (SDKU), which pioneered Slovakia's reforms when in government. It polled 15.4%, down 3% when compared with 2006. Ms Radicova has already started negotiating with the chairmen of SaS, Most-Hid and a rival Christian Democrat party, KDH, headed by former EU commissioner Jan Figel, which won a solid 8.5%. "Change is truly within our reach. It is a beautiful morning miracle,” said Ms Radicova at a pre-dawn press conference.

Another landmark result was the departure of Vladimir Meciar, whose heavy-handed rule steered Slovakia into international isolation in the 1990s. His HZDS party failed to beat the 5% threshold required for parliament. The Slovak National Party of Jan Slota, who specialises in racist comments about Slovakia’s Hungarian and Roma minorities, squeaked in with 5.1%. Both parties were junior partners in Mr Fico’s coalition. Mr Fico, who used every opportunity to bolster his nationalist credentials in the past two years, may well have taken some of their votes.

The new government will face tough challenges. The former finance minister Ivan Miklos, whose austerity measures in 2002-2006 led the World Bank to cite Slovakia as one of the world's top reformers, says that above all, the new cabinet has to “halt the fast and dangerous increase in indebtedness”. Slovakia’s economy shrank by 4.7% last year and though it has been growing this year, the budget deficit is still expected to be about 7% of GDP in 2010.

Restoring what the EU calls “good neighbourliness” with the former imperial power Hungary will also be a test for the new government. Needling Hungary was an easy way for Mr Fico to win nationalist votes: Budapest disliked moves such as a language law that criminalises the use of Hungarian in some contexts and a citizenship law that strips those who actively seek dual citizenship of their Slovak passport. Ms Radicova says that latter law must be abolished "at once".

Like Czechs earlier this month, Slovaks have placed their trust in newcomers. Those troubled by Mr Fico's casual approach to the rule of law and abrasive habits will be heartily relieved.