Baltic dries up

Baltic dries up

by The Economist online

FOR most of the past two decades the main measure of shipping costs has been used as a guide to what is happening to world trade. So the fact that the Baltic Dry Index—which measures the rates charged for chartering the giant ships that carry coal, iron ore and grain—has fallen by almost 60% in its longest streak of consecutive declines for nine years (34 days running as of July 14th) has won attention.

Add in the fact that China’s imports of iron ore and coal fell in June by 6% and 8% respectively, and the Baltic Dry seems to be signalling trouble ahead. Melissa Kidd of Lombard Street Research notes that the decline in rates has been greatest for the biggest vessels, the sort used to carry iron ore and coal from Australia and Brazil to China, suggesting weaker demand in the world’s most vibrant big economy. Such ships cost $48,000 a day to charter in late May; they are now down to around $18,000 a day.

China’s steelmakers are certainly being squeezed. Measures to cool property markets have caused prices for construction steel to fall by 17% since mid-April. The price of hot-rolled coil steel used to make cars and domestic appliances has seen a similar decline. Meanwhile the price of the iron ore the steelmakers import as their core ingredient rose by nearly 50% in the first half of the year, squeezing margins. So steel mills could be running down their iron-ore stocks because they see demand falling and because they suspect that ore prices will fall later this year. Spot prices at Chinese ports have fallen in recent weeks, suggesting that destocking has begun.

There are growing doubts, however, about what the Baltic Dry is actually signalling. The confusion is whether the index is saying more about the supply of ships than the demand for their cargoes. The index spiked dramatically in 2008 as China’s imports of hard commodities soared at a time when the supply of ships was constrained and port congestion added to demand for capacity (see chart). The financial crisis soon set the index back on a steadier path but not before this period of dramatic growth in demand from China had prompted a surge of orders for bulk carriers, especially the very largest ones that are used on the China trade routes.

These ships take around three years to come onstream. Despite the cancellation of some orders the flow of new ships is now in full flow: in the first half of this year the global fleet increased by 23% as new vessels came into service at the rate of 16 a month. There are now 23 such vessels arriving each month, adding to oversupply.

Other freight indicators are less negative than the Baltic Dry. Container-shipping rates are holding pretty steady as companies decide to accept a lull in traffic rather than cut rates to stimulate demand. And according to the International Air Transport Association air freight is booming, up by 34% year-on-year in May. But air freight measures trade in high-value finished goods, whereas bulk ships reflect demand for the raw materials of which they are made. If there is more to its decline than supply-side distortions, the Baltic Dry could yet be a grim warning of what is to come.