Jobless Claims in U.S. Increased Last Week

Jobless Claims in U.S. Increased Last Week to 472,000 (Update2)

By Bob Willis

July 1 (Bloomberg) -- More Americans unexpectedly applied for jobless benefits last week, a sign the labor market recovery may be slowing.

Initial jobless claims increased by 13,000 to 472,000 in the week ended June 26, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The number of people receiving unemployment insurance rose, while those getting emergency benefits dropped after Congress failed to act on extending the legislation.

The jump in applications raises the risk that the turmoil in financial markets brought on by the European debt crisis is leading to additional cutbacks in staff. The Labor Department tomorrow may report the U.S. lost jobs in June for the first month this year, reflecting a drop in temporary federal workers who helped to conduct the decennial census.

“The labor market is not generating employment for anyone, even for people who have been out a long time,” said Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. in New York, who forecast claims at 470,000. “What we’re seeing in the backup of claims is not a particularly healthy story, showing we can’t generate upside momentum in the labor market.”

Economists forecast jobless applications would fall to 455,000 from an initially reported 457,000 for the prior week, according to the median of 46 projections in a Bloomberg survey. Estimates ranged from 440,000 to 475,000.

Stock-Index Futures

Stock-index futures extended losses and Treasury securities were little changed after the report. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring in September dropped 0.4 percent to 1,022.8 at 8:45 a.m. in New York. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose was 2.93 percent, the same as late yesterday.

This is the time of year when states cut back on payrolls in schools, a Labor Department spokesman said. The jump in claims may reflect even larger-than-typical reductions.

Another report today showed job cuts announced by U.S. employers fell in June. Planned firings dropped 47 percent to 39,358 from 74,393 in June 2009, according to figures released by Chicago-based Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. It was the third straight month that announced reductions totaled less than 40,000. For the first half of the year, announced job cuts totaled 297,677, the lowest six-month tally since 2000.

Initial jobless claims reflect weekly firings and tend to fall as job growth -- measured by the monthly non-farm payrolls report -- accelerates.

Four-Week Average

The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure than the weekly figures, climbed to 466,500, the highest level since March, from 463,250 the prior week, today’s report showed.

The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits increased by 43,000 in the week ended June 19 to 4.62 million.

The continuing claims figure does not include the number of Americans receiving extended or emergency benefits under federal programs. Those who’ve used up their traditional benefits and are now collecting emergency and extended payments plunged by about 376,000 to 4.92 million in the week ended June 12.

The Labor Department estimates about 3.3 million people will fall off extended-benefit rolls by the end of July if Congress doesn’t pass emergency legislation.

The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the jobless rate, held at 3.6 percent in the week ended June 19.

Forty states and territories reported a decrease in claims, while 13 reported an increase. These data are also reported with a one-week lag.

Employment Forecast

The Labor Department tomorrow may report payrolls fell by 125,000 in June, reflecting cuts in temporary census workers as the decennial survey nears completion, economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast. Private payrolls, which are more revealing of labor-market conditions, probably rose by 110,000 after a 41,000 gain the prior month.

A report yesterday showed companies added 13,000 workers to payrolls in June, the smallest gain since February, according to figures from ADP Employer Services. Economists surveyed had forecast a gain of 60,000, according to a Bloomberg survey median estimate.

The economy lost 8.4 million jobs during the recession that began in December 2007, the biggest employment slump in the post-World War II era. From January through May, company payrolls grew by 495,000 workers.

Federal Reserve

Federal Reserve policy makers last week reiterated a pledge to keep the benchmark interest at a record low for an “extended period” and signaled the fallout from the European debt crisis poised a risk for economic growth. They acknowledged the labor market was “improving gradually,” even as employers are reluctant to boost hiring.

The timing of the traditional summer auto-plant shutdowns to retool equipment for new models may reduce claims in coming weeks.

General Motors Co. said June 17 most of its U.S. plants will remain open during the traditional shutdowns, a move that economists said could lower claims because some temporarily suspended workers usually apply for benefits.