Window Is Closing for Jobless Numbers......

Window Is Closing for Jobless Numbers to Rescue Democrats

By Peter Brown

Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, is a former White House correspondent with two decades of experience covering Washington government and politics. Click here for Mr. Brown’s full bio.

Time may be running out for the Obama administration to convince voters that the economy is recovering quickly enough to merit giving the president’s congressional allies the votes this November that will allow him and them to run the country for the next two years.

President Barack Obama speaks about the monthly employment numbers flanked by Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner (2nd L), Commerce Secretary Gary Locke (L) and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack on July 2, 2010 at Andrews Air Force Base. (Photo by Mandel Ngan/Getty Images)

Although President Barack Obama took time out to make the case that Friday’s unemployment numbers for June were more proof that things are much better than when he took office, that is not the operative political question.

The more important one is this: Do voters believe the president’s policies have reinvigorated the economy enough since he took office in the midst of the financial crisis, or have his actions been responsible for the tepid recovery from what many consider the stiffest recession since the Great Depression?

Like it or not, voters will base their decision on their feelings about job security – theirs and that of their friends and relatives. The best gauge of that sense of security is the number of jobs created and the unemployment rate. That’s why the government jobs report released on the eve of the holiday weekend was so important and provided more evidence that the political window for the White House to turn around the economy by the November elections is closing.

Yes, there was an increase of 83,000 private-sector jobs, and that is certainly better than a loss. And, the unemployment rate did drop to 9.5% from 9.7%. But he report also showed a net loss of 125,000 jobs, due to the expected elimination of 225,000 temporary Census jobs.

Glossing Over Problems

Putting the best face on it, Mr. Obama emphasized the report marked the sixth consecutive month of job growth and glossed over the data that are problematic for Democrats’ political fortunes.

Most of all, the numbers are generating much comment from analysts that the economic recovery may be running out of steam and opening the door for a double-dip recession in which the economy could rise for a bit and fall again before pulling out of the slump.

The political risk for Obama & Co. is that voters view the country as having yet to recover from the recession. While they’re technically incorrect because the economy is growing, albeit slowly, the latest numbers certainly are not going to change their minds.

First of all, economists say that the country needs to create about 150,000 private-sector jobs a month just to keep up with population growth, and the 33,000 created in May and 83,000 in June fall far short of that threshold.

Secondly, the unemployment rate dropped only because about 650,000 people who had been in the job market stopped looking for work last month, apparently due to poor prospects. When things get better, these folks are likely to re-enter the job hunt and push the unemployment rate higher, possibly closer to the election.

Voters’ Perceptions

When it comes to voters, the economic statistics that matter are the jobless numbers and unemployment rate. Even though economists say that those numbers are a trailing indicator of the economy, history suggests they are the ones that shape voters’ perception of the economy.

For example, although the country has been out of a recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth – for some time, voters see things differently. A Quinnipiac University national poll released May 26, little more than a month ago, found that 74% of voters thought the U.S. was still in a recession. That compares with 71% who felt that way in May of 2008, when things were getting worse, not better.

The question that voters will answer in November is whether the Obama approach – the $787 billion economic stimulus program as well as increased regulation of and higher costs for business in order to provide services such as the health care overhaul – has done the job and shows evidence of being a long-term success.

Republicans argue that the economic recovery has been much slower than in past recessions because the stimulus spending hasn’t worked and Obama policies are a disincentive to business to hire workers, even though most corporate balance sheets are in good shape.

And that is why the unemployment numbers are so crucial to the political conversation. The election is now just four months away. That means there are only three more unemployment reports left–the October report comes out three days after the November election–to provide the kind of evidence of success the White House needs to make its case.