Protest in Egypt
President Hosni Mubarak (below) faces unprecedented protest on the street. But it may not make him go—yet
| CAIRO
SOME Egyptians are jokingly calling it a Tunisami. The wave of popular protest sweeping the Arab world certainly draws inspiration from Tunisia. As yet, none of the youthful movements clamouring for political freedom and economic relief in such strongman states as Algeria, Jordan, Libya, Sudan and Yemen has come close to reaching the dictator-toppling momentum of their Tunisian counterpart. But for one day at least, Egypt, the most populous and influential Arab country, did look as if it had been hit by a Tunisia-tinted political tidal wave.
A loose coalition of more than a dozen small parties and activist groups had issued a Facebook call for a “day of rage” to coincide with Police Day on January 25th, recently declared a national holiday. Some 80,000 Egyptian web-surfers signed up, pledging to march on the streets to voice demands for reform. Their enthusiasm reflected Tunisia’s influence but was also built on a rising tide of local alienation from the government. Yet few expected that number to turn up, and fewer expected Egypt’s harsh, experienced and effective riot police to let them get very far.
To general surprise, the nationwide protest turned out to be the largest act of civil disobedience in the 30 years of President Hosni Mubarak’s rule, with simultaneous marches erupting in more than a dozen towns across the country. As many as 30,000 people demonstrated in both the port city of Alexandria and the capital, Cairo, unprecedented numbers for Egypt, where public apathy and fear of police brutality run justifiably deep.
Vague, competing lists of demands had been issued by different organisers, including for an end to the emergency laws enforced throughout Mr Mubarak’s tenure, the firing of his interior minister, and a higher minimum wage. But, emboldened by numbers, the marchers refocused their slogans. “Down with Mubarak!” “The people demand the fall of the regime!” and a simple “Go!” were the commonest chants. In many cities portraits of the president and his son Gamal, often tipped as a successor to his 82-year-old father, were ripped down or defaced.
Encouraged by a relatively lenient initial police response, despite the presence of ranks of uniformed riot police backed up by water cannons and thousands of plain-clothes thugs, demonstrators in Cairo managed by late afternoon to seize control of Tahrir Square, a broad traffic junction in the city centre. But late in the evening a police charge with truncheons, accompanied by barrages of tear-gas, volleys of birdshot, plastic bullets and percussion rounds, cleared the square. In the city of Suez plastic bullets fired at close range killed three protesters. A policeman died in Cairo after being hit on the head by a rock.
Shocked by the scale of protest, police toughened and broadened their response. The minister of interior, Habib al-Adli, issued a stern warning that no further street gatherings of any kind would be tolerated. Protests in Cairo on the following day drew far smaller crowds that were heavily attacked. But violent clashes continued in Suez, where a government building was torched and another protester killed, and in Alexandria.
The authorities clamped down on social networking websites, restricting the use of twitter, which had been widely used to gather protesters and disseminate news and photographs. Cellphone reception was blocked in much of central Cairo. The number of those arrested, many of whom were reportedly beaten in custody, probably exceeded 1,000 nationwide.
Whether the protesters can keep up a level of pressure remains to be seen. Ominously for Egypt’s government, financial markets have responded dramatically, with Egypt’s stock index dipping by 6% on January 26th, as foreign investors fled.
Public sympathy seems to lie mostly with the protesters. Many Egyptians have called for more nationwide demonstrations after Friday prayers. Students are expected to stir campus protests. Opposition parties have made more explicit demands for reforms, including the dissolution of the parliament installed in December after elections widely condemned as fraudulent, the holding of new elections, and a declaration from Mr Mubarak that neither he nor his son will run for president in the elections scheduled for September.
Mr Mubarak has so far been stunningly silent. The state media have ignored the protests, reporting instead on the gifts of flowers and chocolates that citizens were said to have given to police to honour their holiday. The government issued a vague statement blaming “banned groups”, a code-word for the Muslim Brotherhood, for fomenting unrest.
Yet the Brotherhood, which is Egypt’s largest and most disciplined opposition group, was notably absent from the protests. Having been warned of a severe crackdown if it officially endorsed them, the group only belatedly gave permission for its members to join as individuals.
Egypt’s government is in a bind. Its security forces, better equipped and trained than Tunisia’s, can probably crush the protests. But the government is already under pressure from Western allies to enact democratic reforms, and risks being further isolated internationally. Hillary Clinton, the American secretary of state, pointedly urged across-the-board reform.
Should Mr Mubarak begin to concede to the protesters’ demands, however, he may be perceived as weak—and that might encourage more to be made. Having packed his parliament with his own party and all but shut out the opposition, he has in effect blocked what might have been a useful conduit for artful concessions.
On January 27th Mohamed ElBaradei, a former head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog, was due to return to Egypt, offering himself as a prospective leader of the opposition and, by implication, as a candidate for the presidency. It will be hard for Mr Mubarak to stop him from running.
The president is not as deeply loathed as Tunisia’s fallen dictator, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali. Nor does he have the same reputation for thievery. But his people, and especially the young, suffer the same ill-defined anguish at having long been humiliated by an unresponsive, unaccountable and cynically manipulative regime. Their anger will not evaporate soon.
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