Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Mubarak Will Not Run In Next Elections

Mubarak Will Not Run In Next Elections

[0201egypt7] Emilio Morenatti/Associated Press

Antigovernment protesters shout slogans as they march toward Tahrir Square in downtown Cairo on Tuesday.

CAIRO—Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak said he will not run in the next elections, vowing to domestic and international pressure, as the U.S. government began to work more publicly toward a resolution of the crisis in the world's largest Arab nation. Mr. Mubarak's announcement, which brings an end to almost three decades in power, was celebrated by hundreds of thousands of Egyptians gathered in Cairo's Tahrir Square.

In his speech, Mr. Mubarak said he will focus on an"orderly" transition of power, that will take into consideration the desires and anxieties of the young people that have been protesting for days calling for the end of his regime.

Hundreds of thousands of Egyptians gathered in Cairo's Tahrir Square on Tuesday forming the largest crowd yet in eight days of demonstrations, cheered loudly after Mr. Mubarak said he won't be seeking reelection.

Mr. Mubarak's announcement came as U.S. President Barack Obama had conveyed a message earlier to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak asking him to decline to run in the next election, an Obama administration official said.

It has become clear in recent days the Obama administration believes only way to begin a transition to a new government in Cairo would be for Mr. Mubarak to announce he isn't running in elections slated for September, or to step down immediately. Such a scenario was discussed among the U.S. and its allies Monday.

U.S. pressure on Mr. Mubarak came from other quarters, too, Tuesday. Top U.S. officials spoke to the two players that could determine the future of the Egyptian government. Frank Wisner, a former ambassador to Egypt tapped by the State Department to engage with the Egyptian government, spoke directly to Mr. Mubarak.

The current U.S. ambassador in Cairo, Margaret Scobey, spoke with former International Atomic Energy Agency Chief Mohamed ElBaradei, who has emerged as the central figure of the Egyptian opposition, administration officials said.

In Tuesday's phone conversations, the Americans intended to clarify what President Barack Obama meant by "an orderly transition to democracy," and to make clear that Washington does not believe Mr. Mubarak has come close to satisfying that demand, a White House official said.

Ms. Scobey also encouraged Mr. ElBaradei to "engage in a meaningful dialogue" with the Egyptian government, as pressure mounts on Mr. Mubarak to reform the country's constitution and move quickly toward free and fair elections, administration officials said.

Mr. Wisner delivered a "tough" message to Mr. Mubarak that he should not run in the September election, another person familiar with the discussions said. "Now's the time," the person said of the message to Mr. Mubarak conveyed by Mr. Wisner.

A U.S. official said it was unclear whether an agreement for Mr. Mubarak to step down in September would be enough to satisfy street protesters who have demanded his immediate departure.

"It may not be enough," said the official, citing the difficulty of determining how to gage the response of the opposition.

Estimates of the crowd varied, with the Associated Press reporting that more than a quarter of a million people were in the square to demand an end to Mr. Mubarak's regime. Other estimates ran from 100,000 to Al-Jazeera's estimate of one million on its website.

Some Western diplomats have started to question the role of Mohamed ElBaradei, the 68-year-old Nobel Peace Laureate behind whom the opposition coalesced last week.

A senior Western diplomat said Mr. ElBaradei has so far "failed in his attempts" to exert control over the opposition, which includes the powerful Muslim Brotherhood.

Another Western official said "there's a lot of unhappiness with his hijacking the movement" within the groups that make up the opposition.

The U.S. State Department also on Tuesday ordered the evacuation of all nonemergency U.S. government personnel and dependents from Cairo, as uncertainty about conditions in the Egyptian capital deepened, according to a State Department representative.

Tuesday's protest was far more peaceful than the fiery clashes last week. In contrast to earlier protests made up mainly of young men, the crowd Tuesday in Tahrir Square featured a large number of women. Whole families were also in attendance, as was Egypt's upper crust.

WSJ's Margaret Coker reports from Cairo on the continued unrest in Egypt and pressure on president Hosni Mubarak to step down. Also, Guy Chazan reports all eyes are on the Suez Canal and how it might be impacted by the spreading violence.

WSJ's Guy Chazan reports oil markets are nervously keeping an eye on the unrest in Egypt and how it might affect the Suez Canal and Sumed pileline, which combined carry upwards of 3 million barrels of oil a day.

The army declared ahead of Tuesday's gathering that it wouldn't use force against protesters.

People entered the square in relatively orderly fashion via checkpoints set up by soldiers, who checked ID cards and patted people down for weapons.

Space was tight across the immense square. Despite calls for a million-person march to the Presidential Palace some 10 kilometers away, there was no apparent move to leave.

As of sunset, Mr. ElBaradei, had yet to appear in the square.

The crowd displayed a swelling sense of nationalism, amplified by groups of volunteers offering water and snacks to the demonstrators. People laughed and shared food as a military helicopter circled overhead.

Photos: Tuesday Protests

Khalil Hamra/Associated Press

The crowd gathered in Tahrir Square in Cairo Tuesday.

Regional Upheaval

A succession of rallies and demonstrations, in Egypt, Jordan, Yemen and Algeria have been inspired directly by the popular outpouring of anger that toppled Tunisian President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. See how these uprising progressed.

Mr. Mubarak, seeking to salvage his 29-year rule, late Monday made his first offer to discuss reforms with opposition groups. A 10-person steering comittee of opposition parties met for two hours Tuesday morning and made a unified announcement that they wouldn't negotiate as long as Mr. Mubarak remains in office.

Mr. ElBaradei, who leads the steering committee, didn't attend the meeting. He couldn't immediately be reached to comment.

Egypt's newly appointed vice president has announced that the longtime autocratic leader President Mubarak has authorized him to start negotiations with the country's political opposition. Margaret Coker has the latest from Cairo.

As Egypt's Revolution Simmers, U.S. Watches, Waits

2:05

As Egypt moves closer and closer to democracy, the U.S. is continuing to take a largely hands-off approach. But as WSJ's Neil Hickey reports, the U.S. State Department remains concerned at the violent bloodshed in the streets of Cairo.

The U.S. government evacuated 350 American citizens on Tuesday, using aircraft chartered primarily from U.S. commercial airlines, according to a U.S. State Department official. To date, the government has received a total of 2,600 requests from Americans in Cairo for assistance in leaving.

The U.S. government began evacuating American citizens on Monday, with nine chartered flights transporting about 1,200 Americans out of Cairo, according to the official. The flights included a U.S. military aircraft, a Canadian commercial plane, and seven American airliners.

"If we get a surge in requests, we're going to continue to move people out as quickly and as safely as possible," said Erin Pelton, the State Department spokeswoman.

Elsewhere in the capital, people said supplies of basic commodities such as sugar, rice, salt, pasta, bread and flour were running short. Supermarkets were posting signs saying such items are out of stock. Local bread ovens first raised prices to one Egyptian pound per loaf (usually its 10 or 15 piasters), and now they are running out of flour.

Standard & Poor's on Tuesday cut its rating for Egypt's foreign debt and said it could lower it further. The ratings firm said it expects violent demonstrations to persist despite the move by Mr. Mubarak to appoint a vice president. The move followed a similar decision by Moody's Investors Service on Monday. Both firms rate Egypt two steps below investment grade.

The U.S. and its allies have started discussing how Mr. Mubarak might step aside or at least not run in national elections set for September, according to Western diplomats.

Participants in a private meeting Monday at the White House said a long discussion of Mr. Mubarak's future left them with the understanding that the White House sees no scenario in which Mr. Mubarak remains in power for long. White House officials said they made no explicit predictions about Mr. Mubarak's future.

In Egypt, a committee from the coalition of opposition parties met Monday to discuss their strategy in anticipation of Mr. Mubarak's ouster. People briefed on the meeting said the focus was to hammer out a negotiating strategy with the army and newly appointed Vice President Omar Suleiman, the longtime intelligence chief who constitutionally would take over if Mr. Mubarak left office. Protest organizers said the opposition would make no concessions until Mr. Mubarak leaves office. Mr. Mubarak's offer to negotiate a package of political and constitutional overhauls was delivered by Mr. Suleiman over state television around midnight.

Military commanders haven't yet withdrawn support for Mr. Mubarak, but the army boosted demonstrators Monday when state television said the military "understands the legitimacy of the people's demands."

The Interior Ministry hasn't revised its official death toll since Saturday, when it said 78 people had died in clashes with police—a number activists said should have been far higher.

The last working Internet provider in the country, the Noor group, was cut off late Monday, according to Renesys Corp., an Internet monitoring firm.

Google Inc. said Monday it launched a new service for people in Egypt to send Twitter messages without requiring an Internet connection. It said the service lets people dial one of three international telephone numbers and leave a voicemail. The service then tweets a link to each recorded message.

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