Did Unemployment Actually Go UP In February?

by Jane Jamison|

Unemployed, underemployed, part-time, no longer looking

Feds Say It Went Down — Gallup Says It Went Up

By Dell Hill

Each week the Bureau of Labor and Statistics offers up the so-called “unemployment” figures for the entire nation. Those numbers have been called in to question on a regular basis. A very large percentage of the American public (particularly those who are unemployed and have been for months on end) simply don’t believe the government’s numbers. There’s a fairly good reason for that. The BLS report is “seasonally adjusted” and other unemployment surveys are not. Gallup, for instance, files regular reports and doesn’t seasonally adjust their figures.

Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis has an excellent example of how the BLS and Gallup numbers are calculated.

“A Gallup survey says the unemployment rate in the US is 10.3% and rising. Meanwhile, the BLS says it’s 8.9%. The comparison is not precise because Gallup does not seasonally adjust but the BLS does.

However, on an equal comparison basis, Gallup has the unemployment rate where it was a year ago but the BLS shows a drop of .5%.

For BLS details please see BLS Jobs Report: Nonfarm Payroll +192,000, Unemployment Rate 8.9%; Reflections on the Jobs Report .

Now let’s take a look at the most recent Gallup survey

Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Hitting 10.3% in February

Inquiring minds note Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Hitting 10.3% in February

Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, hit 10.3% in February — up from 9.8% at the end of January. The U.S. unemployment rate is now essentially the same as the 10.4% at the end of February 2010.

Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted

The percentage of part-time workers who want full-time work worsened considerably in February, increasing to 9.6% of the workforce from 9.1% at the end of January. A larger percentage of the U.S. workforce is working part time and wanting full-time work now than was the case a year ago (9.3%).

unemployment

Part-Time Workers Wanting Full-Time Jobs

Underemployment Surges in February

Underemployment, a measure that combines part-time workers wanting full-time work with those who are unemployed, surged in February to 19.9%. This resulted from the combination of a sharp 0.5-point increase since the end of January in the percentage unemployed and a 0.5-point increase in the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work. Underemployment is now higher than it was at this point a year ago (19.7%).

Underemployment

This deterioration in the jobs situation combined with surging gas prices, budget battles at the federal and state level, and declines on Wall Street tend to explain the recent plunge Gallup recorded in consumer confidence. They also align with the continued “new normal” spending patterns of early 2011. Although Gallup‘s Job Creation Index has improved over the past year and showed modest improvement in February, the improvement has not been significant enough to positively affect underemployment and unemployment.

There’s much more to read…And it’s significant. Click right here.

Our Uncoverage.net exit question of the day: Why in the world does there have to be a half-dozen different formulas to determine something as basically simple as unemployment? Either you have a job or you don’t.

Some years back, someone discovered that the party in power would look much better in the eyes of the public if the unemployment number was kept to a minimum…or lower, if possible. So they came up with these formulas that would do just that. It makes no difference if it’s a Republican or Democrat — this is just plain manipulative pandering — or an outright lie — take your pick.

Update: And ….it’s come to this…..”Walmart Greeter, 83, Robs Own Store Wearing Mask”