A RIVAL FOR THE PRESIDENT

The Republicans in search of a nominee

A RIVAL FOR THE PRESIDENT

Bring forth a pragmatic Republican: he (or she) might win

CAN Barack Obama be beaten in next year’s presidential election? That is the question that a squadron of nervous Republicans are asking themselves as they weigh up whether or not to jump into the fray, an undertaking that will cost them hundreds of millions of dollars and prove intrusive, exhausting and quite possibly humiliating. So far only two obscurities have declared themselves, a pizza mogul and a gay-rights activist. But the field is about to start filling out (see article).

In 2007 the race was already in full swing by now. The slow start, many reckon, is attributable to a severe case of cold feet. Incumbent presidents, on the whole, win re-election. The only three to be turfed out since the second world war have been the hapless Jimmy Carter; and Gerald Ford and George Bush senior, who were both running for re-election at the end of, respectively, two and three terms of Republican rule. Mr Obama’s approval ratings, at around 48%, are respectable, and the economy is clearly recovering, though still fitfully (see article). He has a huge war chest and the slickest electoral machine that America has ever seen. He will, certainly, be hard to beat.

But not impossible. Consider that Mr Obama, who ran a pretty good campaign in 2008, beat John McCain, who didn’t, by 192 electoral-college votes, a big number but not a landslide. The challenger needs therefore to switch states “worth” 97 votes to his (or her) column—a total that falls to 91 once you take into account the census which has helped the Republicans. Next, look at the 81 votes in five big swing states which plumped for Mr Obama in 2008: Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Indiana and Wisconsin. In all these places his appeal, especially to white working-class voters, has collapsed as the downturn has worn on and the implications of his expensive health-care bill have sunk in; the Republicans did well in them in the mid-terms. And some other states look promising: North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada and Minnesota. Above all, things can change, especially in a weak economy. The Republican starting position is considerably better than Bill Clinton’s in March 1991 (when the older Bush’s post-Iraq approval rating was 85%).

Let the elephants stampede

But the Republicans still have to find the right candidate. What would he or she look like? The next election could be dominated by some foreign event, but that is hard to plan for, and usually domestic policy is more important. Mr Obama’s weaknesses are his perceived affection for big government, his lack of empathy with wealth-creators, his remoteness from the common man and the sense that he has never been a chief executive: witness the former senator’s willingness to hand over the tough decisions about health care and the deficit to Congress. In 2008 Americans chose a charismatic leftish senator who spellbound them with his rhetoric; in 2012, with reform of their government a priority, they might choose a conservative pragmatist who has met a payroll.

The Republicans’ first problem is Sarah Palin. She has a strong base in the “tea party”, but she terrifies independents. Fortunately, the party is starting to understand this: at a recent conservative conference in Washington, DC, she picked up just 3% in a straw poll. But once you look beyond her, there is a reasonably impressive slate of moderates, headed by a clutch of governors who (unlike Mr Obama) have grappled successfully with budget issues: Mitt Romney, formerly of Massachusetts; Mitch Daniels, of Indiana; Jon Huntsman, formerly of Utah; Hayley Barbour of Mississippi; Tim Pawlenty, formerly of Minnesota; and Chris Christie of New Jersey.

At the moment none of them stands out. Mr Romney is the best-known—though he is hampered by his famously flexible convictions and his Mormonism (see article). Mr Christie, who is turning around a Democratic state by taking on Mr Obama’s friends in the public-sector unions, says he is not running; others, including Mr Daniels, are hesitating. That is sad for their party, and also for America. A pragmatic alternative to Mr Obama would drag the president to the centre. And it would also leave independents who backed Mr Obama last time, like this newspaper, with an interesting choice.