Thrusters v laggards

The 2012 primaries

Thrusters v laggards

The high tide of frontloading has passed and now seems to be ebbing

| WASHINGTON, DC

FOR decades Republicans and Democrats alike have bemoaned “frontloading”: the unseemly scramble among states to move their presidential primaries or caucuses earlier and earlier in election year, in the hope of exerting greater influence over the national result. As states such as Iowa and New Hampshire, which jealously guard the prerogative of going first, respond in kind, the point at which the nomination tends to be decided has retreated from June to March. For a time it looked as if the 2008 primary season might actually slide backwards into 2007, steeping even the Christmas holidays in election mania. In the end, Iowa went first on January 3rd. But that may have marked frontloading’s high tide. Although a few states are still trying to jump in early this time round, a concerted effort by the national leadership of both the Republicans and Democrats, and a desperate squeeze on state budgets, may actually succeed in delaying the primary schedule for once.

Uppity legislators in Michigan and Missouri have introduced bills to advance their primaries. But it is Florida, a habitual offender, which is causing the most fuss by trying to hold its primary in January. This violates rules set by both the Democratic and Republican National Committees, which co-ordinate the nominating process and organise the conventions that make the result official. The two parties have barred January primaries, and want only the four habitual starters—Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina—to hold their contests in February. All other states are supposed to wait until the first Tuesday in March at the earliest.

The Republicans have tried to give the laggards extra clout by barring states with primaries in March from using a winner-takes-all voting system. Perhaps more compelling will be the penalties for going early: the loss of half of the offending state’s votes at the convention, which is due to take place in Tampa, Florida, in August 2012. Also at risk, the RNC says, are perks such as plum seating and accommodation at the convention and extra passes for guests: not trivial things, as state parties use them to butter up big donors.

Nonetheless, Florida’s Republicans are undeterred. They control the state legislature, and have so far refused to budge from January 31st. Republican officials in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina are so incensed that they have asked the party to move the convention to a more law-abiding state. But Florida’s Republican bigwigs are unconcerned, suggesting (probably rightly) that the party would not dare to snub the voters of a large swing state.

If the RNC can somehow resolve this impasse, points out Josh Putnam, an academic who runs Frontloading HQ, a website which tracks such rows, most other states should fall into line, undoing some of the frontloading of recent years. In fact, several states are now in the process of postponing their primaries. Virginia has already set its date almost a month later than last time; Maryland and Washington, DC are on the verge of delaying by two months or more. Some Republican officials in Texas are toying with a move from March to April.

The biggest proposed change would be in California, the most populous state, where legislation is in train to shift the primary from February to June. This is intended to save $100m by combining the presidential primary with those for other offices. Chris Christie, the Republican icon who is governor of New Jersey, wants to do the same. Washington state may scrap its primary altogether, leaving the parties to organise their own caucuses.

Suspicious minds suggest that states dominated by Democrats are particularly keen to delay their primaries, in an attempt to ensure that conservative states have a lopsided influence over the early part of the race—thus increasing the likelihood of an unelectable firebrand clinching the Republican nomination. But gaming the system does not always work as planned: last time round, the early birds ended up with less clout in the Democratic race, as the battle for the nomination dragged on through every last primary. At any rate, Republican officials do not sound too worried—although their main goal may be to preserve a primary-free Christmas.