Can Obama Pull a Reagan?

Democrats inside and outside the White House are looking for a comeback strategy for President Obama, and their model is Ronald Reagan.

STEPHEN MOORE

Democrats inside and outside the White House are looking for a comeback strategy for President Obama, and their model is Ronald Reagan.

The Gipper's approval ratings were in the tank at the end of his second year in office, but he roared back to win 49 states against Democrat Walter Mondale. And Reagan's polling numbers at this stage of his presidency were not much better than Mr. Obama's are now.

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However, a new analysis from Laffer and Associates suggests that it will be very difficult for Team Obama to replicate Reagan. Reagan's numbers bottomed out in January 1983, right after the trough of the 1982 recession, at about 35%. But for the rest of 1983, Reagan's numbers steadily climbed and eventually surpassed 50% by the end of that year. For Mr. Obama, the trend line this year has been in the opposite direction.

"Reagan's numbers really began to soar by late '83," says Arthur Laffer, who was an economic adviser to Reagan. "The numbers really tracked the economic recovery."

That kind of political resurrection could happen for Mr. Obama if the economy heals. But right now unemployment exceeds 9%, and presidents typically don't get re-elected when unemployment is more than 8%. And then there are the "confidence" and "competence" factors, according to the Laffer report. These are measures of whether people feel that things are getting better and the president is doing the right thing, even if the economy isn't so good at that point in time. In 1984, the unemployment rate was still above 7.5 % and Reagan won big.

The Laffer report on the two presidents is aptly entitled "The Odd Couple." In this case Reagan would be Felix, because he cleaned up the mess; and Mr. Obama is more like Oscar, who leaves a bigger mess behind.