Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Craig Ferguson, a currency hedge fund manager at Antipodean Capital Management in Melbourne, talks about global financial markets and his investment strategy. Ferguson, speaking with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television's "On the Move Asia," also discusses Europe's sovereign debt crisis and the U.S. economy. (Source: Bloomberg)
Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Ian Harnett, managing director at Absolute Strategy Research Ltd., talks about investment strategy and the outlook for the fourth quarter. He speaks with Owen Thomas on Bloomberg Television's "Countdown." (Source: Bloomberg)
Visitors stand under electronic screens displaying financial data in the entrance hall to the London Stock Exchange Group Plc, in London. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg
Stocks fell, dragging the MSCI All- Country World Index to its biggest quarterly loss since 2008, while the U.S. dollar and yen strengthened as declines in Chinese manufacturing and German retail sales signaled global growth is slowing. Treasuries rose, and oil declined.
The MSCI All-Country World Index slid 1.8 percent at 10:47 a.m. New York time, extending its decline since June 30 to 18 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 1.4 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 1.8 percent. The dollar gained against all 16 major peers, including a 1.1 percent versus the euro. The yen appreciated against 15. Treasury 10-year notes snapped a five-day drop. Oil fell 1.1 percent.
Chinese manufacturing shrank a third month, the longest streak since 2009. German sales fell the most in more than four years, while European inflation unexpectedly quickened to the fastest in almost three years. Japanese industrial production grew less than economists forecast. The S&P 500 briefly pared losses after the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc.’s business barometer and Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan gauge of consumer confidence beat projections.
“The situation is quite dark,” said Philipp Musil, who helps manage about $11 billion at Semper Constantia Privatbank AG in Vienna. “We’re very cautious about equities. All in all the figures are not good and many investors think we’re going straight into a recession.”
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley slumped 6.6 percent. The owner of the world’s largest retail brokerage is being priced in the credit- default swaps market as less creditworthy than most U.S., U.K. and French banks and as risky as Italy’s biggest lenders. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. shares lost 3.7 percent. Deutsche Bank AG lost 7.2 percent as Handelsblatt reported that Germany’s biggest lender may lower its profit target.
The S&P 500 extended this quarter’s slide to 13 percent. Futures on the index maintained losses today after U.S. consumer spending increased 0.2 percent in August, matching the median economist projection in a Bloomberg survey. Growth slowed from the 0.7 percent increase in July.
“The U.S. economy is tipping into a new recession,” Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, said today during a radio interview on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Ken Prewitt and Tom Keene. “You have wildfire among the leading indicators across the board. Non- financial services plunging, manufacturing plunging, exports plunging. That is such a deadly combination.”
Economic Reports
U.S. stocks fell even after business activity in the U.S. accelerated in September. The Institute for Supply Management- Chicago said its business barometer rose to 60.4 this month from 56.5 in August. Economists forecast the gauge would drop to 55, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.
Another report showed confidence among U.S. consumers rose in September from the lowest level since November 2008 as pessimism about the economy eased. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment climbed to 59.4 this month. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was 57.8.
The yen climbed 1 percent against the euro. The Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against those of six trading partners, gained 0.6 percent. The Japanese and U.S. currencies are the best performers this quarter among the 10 tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Currency Indexes, gaining about 12 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively.
Japan’s Factories
Japan’s factory output increased 0.8 percent in August from July, the trade ministry said in Tokyo today, missing the 1.5 percent median estimate of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. South Korean industrial production rose 4.8 percent from a year earlier, trailing the median 6.1 percent gain forecast in a separate Bloomberg survey. The won weakened 0.4 percent to 1,178.10 per dollar, completing its largest monthly loss since February 2009.
Treasury 10-year yields fell seven basis points to 1.93 percent. The yield on the German 10-year bund declined 12 basis points to 1.89 percent.
Oil fell 1.1 percent to $81.22 a barrel in New York.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 1.8 percent, heading for the biggest monthly retreat since October 2008. China’s Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.3 percent to the lowest level since April 2009, while Russia’s Micex Index sank 4.3 percent. The ruble weakened 0.9 percent against the dollar.
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