John Avlon: Mitt Romney’s Campaign Is Becoming a Sinking Ship

New polls show that Newt Gingrich’s surge is hurting Mitt Romney where it counts. The game isn’t over, but time is running out for Mitt to turn it around, argues John Avlon.

The horses are getting spooked in the Romney camp.

His poll numbers are plummeting in state after state, while Newt Gingrich is soaring across the board.

One reflection of the rising tension was an awkward interview with Bret Baier, in which the normally unflappable Mitt Romney got rattled by fair questions. It revealed the irritability of a man accustomed to being in control who's watching his plans fall apart in public.

Mitt’s aura of inevitability is fading because his strategy is failing.

At this time of year, political polls aren’t simply snapshots anymore—they measure deeper trends. Five weeks out from Iowa, political gravity is starting to take hold. Consultants will try to spin the candidate and senior staff, grim silences alternating with false confidence in the face of uncomfortable facts. But the picture ain’t pretty for Team Romney right now, no matter what the spinning man says.

Sure, there have been plenty of other people in the anti-Romney position before, averaging one a month: Bachmann (August), Perry (September), and Cain (October). But in this high-stakes game of musical chairs, Newt is surging when it matters most. Take a look at these polls:

Iowa: Team Romney announced that it would play in Iowa two weeks ago,
aiming for a knockout, one-two punch in the early states. It was a gutsy call that overrode rational hesitation born of his 2008 loss to Mike Huckabee. But the plan appears to be backfiring—a new Insider Advantage poll shows Gingrich leading Iowa with 28 percent, followed by Ron Paul at 13 percent, followed by Romney at 12 percent.NewsBeast: Mitt vs. Newt

New Hampshire: Newt’s Union Leader endorsement can’t entirely erase Romney’s commanding lead as an adopted hometown candidate. But the same poll now shows Newt within striking distance, 27 percent to Romney’s 31 percent, with Paul bringing in the bronze.

South Carolina: This social-conservative bulwark was always going to be a tough nut to crack for Team Mitt, but an American Research Group poll shows Newt at 33 percent with Romney trailing at 22 percent.

Florida: This is the traditional tie breaker in the Republican primary, and that’s where a new Insider Advantage poll shows Newt with a huge 41 to 15 percent lead.

There’s no way the ultimate number will be that far apart, but that the former dead man walking has such a large lead in this poll means Mitt’s got serious problems that all the Cuban-American-establishment endorsements in the world can’t solve.