With elder Kim’s death, some see window for change in North Korea

View Photo Gallery — After years of speculation on his declining health, North Korean television has reported its leader, Kim Jong Il, right, has passed away. He was 69.

BEIJING — The death of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has set off a wave of anxiety among the country’s neighbors and beyond, focused on possible instability on the Korean Peninsula and the unpredictable nature of the succession in the isolated, nuclear-armed country.


But along with the concern were some cautious expressions of optimism, and hopes that the sudden and unexpected leadership transition in Pyongyang might offer an opportunity for the country to pursue desperately needed reform of its dysfunctional economic system.

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As his people wept, world leaders reacted to the death of North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Il. China expressed shock and sent condolences, while the White House and State Department would only say they are monitoring the situation closely. (Dec. 19)

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 A rare look inside North Korea as seen by photographer David Guttenfelder.

That latter view was most often heard here in China, North Korea’s principal ally and benefactor, whose leaders are known to have been pressing Kim to pursue economic reforms.
China sent troops to fight alongside North Koreans during the Korean War, and Mao Zedong once said the two neighbors’ relationship was “as close as lips and teeth.” But where China since 1979 has pursued a policy of economic liberalization and opening to the outside world, North Korea has remained mired in a 1950s-style Stalinist system that brought widespread poverty, food shortages and a shrinking industrial base.
“The North Korean regime is under huge pressure to survive right now,” said Zhu Feng, an international studies professor at Peking University. “It’s almost impossible for North Korea to continue blocking its people from the outside world or stay isolated any longer. If the North Korean regime hopes to survive, they must make some changes.”
Zhu said the transfer of power to Kim’s son, Kim Jong Eun, probably will take place without a power struggle. But the younger Kim might have less control than his father, and face more pressure for reform.
“Right now, North Koreans lack food and clothing,” Zhu said. “In such a society, the death of the old leader will have a huge impact on society and cause people to reflect and change their ideas.”
Others here agreed, saying the transition could provide an opportunity. Outsiders — particularly the United States and South Korea — need to move cautiously to take advantage of the diplomatic window and avoid provoking the regime hard-liners, they said.
Shi Yuanhua, director of the Korean Studies Center of Fudan University in Shanghai, noted that Japan had sent a condolence message to North Korea, which he called “a friendly signal.” But the United States and South Korea had yet to make a similar gesture.
“I’m optimistic about the future of North Korea,” Shi said. “Compared to his father, Kim Jong Eun has more motivation to reform, considering his background abroad and his age. He will be more likely to have opening and reform.
“But if the U.S., Japan and South Korea are still waiting for North Korea to collapse one day, then the opening and reform process will be more difficult.”
President Obama spoke with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak at midnight Sunday, the White House said in a statement. Obama “reaffirmed the United States’ strong commitment to the stability of the Korean Peninsula and the security of our close ally,” South Korea, the statement said.

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