What's a political writer to do on a slow news day when official Washington is
closed for business?
Blog about new polls, that's what! Fox News has a new survey out,
which examines both the Republican presidential primary and broader
political questions. The top line take-away is that Mitt Romney has
drastically expanded his lead among the national GOP electorate:
While far more Republican primary voters view Rick Santorum as the true conservative, Mitt Romney
has become the clear leader in the race for the GOP nomination,
according to a just-released Fox News poll. After Iowa and New Hampshire
wins, Romney now garners the highest level of support from GOP primary
voters nationally achieved by any candidate so far. And support for
Santorum has nearly quadrupled in the last month, putting him firmly in
the second tier with Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul. Romney
has the backing of 40 percent of Republican primary voters. He’s
followed by Santorum at 15 percent, Gingrich at 14 percent and Paul at
13 percent. Rick Perry captures 6 percent and Jon Huntsman 5 percent. Romney’s
support is up 17 percentage points since last month’s Fox poll.
Gingrich -- who led last month -- has dropped by 22 points.
Newt's plummeting poll position is partially attributable to a series of negative ads run by
Mitt Romney and
Ron Paul
supporters in Iowa. An angry Gingrich has responded by launching
kitchen-sink attacks against Romney, including the promotion of a
dishonest film that badly distorts Romney's tenure at private equity firm Bain Capital. Even though Gingrich
has requested
that a supportive Super PAC remove the controversial film from its
website, GOP voters now perceive the former Speaker's campaign as the "
nastiest"
and most negative of the entire field. This result must burn Newt,
considering that (a) his scorched-earth tactics were prompted by
incoming negative attacks, and (b) he'd previously run a conspicuously
positive race. He hastily abandoned that strategy, went
hard negative, and is paying the price.
On the Democratic side of the ledger, President Obama's approval rating
has rebounded slightly over early December, but remains underwater at
45/47. He fares
far worse
among independents, at 36/52. The president's personal favorability
continues to outpace his job approval rating, but that gap is
narrowing. Forty-six percent of Americans now hold an unfavorable view
of Barack Obama. Americans aren't pleased with the state of the nation,
either; 65 percent of respondents say they are unsatisfied with the
country's direction, and 56 percent describe themselves as either
"disappointed" or "angry" with the Obama administration.
A mere 43 percent of Americans believe this president deserves a second
term, yet a slim majority says he'll win this fall's election anyway.
Not exactly a glowing assessment of the GOP field. Along those lines,
Obama
leads every possible Republican opponent
in hypothetical head-to-head matchups. He bests Santorum and Gingrich
by double digits, but is locked in a virtual tie with Romney at 46/45.
If Ron Paul decides to run as a third party candidate, the breakdown
would swing in Obama's favor (42 Obama/35 Romney/14 Paul). Ed Morrissey
runs the numbers and analyzes the poll's overall sample
HERE.
UPDATE - Rasmussen's
latest numbers suggest that Gingrich's full court press on Bain has
bolstered Romney among Republican voters:
The Republican presidential front-runner has come under increasing
attack from some GOP rivals for his work at Bain Capital, a major
investment firm, and 34% of Likely U.S. Voters now think Romney’s track
record in business is primarily a reason to vote against him. However, slightly more (39%) feel that business record is primarily a reason to vote for him,
according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.
Twenty-seven percent (27%) are undecided. As Saturday’s critical South
Carolina Primary approaches, it appears the criticism of Romney
by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Governor Rick Perry, in
particular, is not resonating with Republican voters nationally.
Fifty-five percent (55%) of those voters believe Romney’s record in
business is primarily a reason to vote for him versus only 20% who see
it as a reason to vote against him.
The poll shows Romney with a nine-point lead over Obama on economic issues.
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