The Coming Israel–Iran Confrontation

A failure to support Israel would have dire consequences.

By Jack David

U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak in October 2011

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Events are conspiring to precipitate a cataclysmic confrontation with Iran. Time has nearly expired for international sanctions — even the so-called tough and crippling ones — to keep Iran from acquiring deliverable nuclear weapons. The U.S. soon will not be able to avoid making a choice: Will it meet the challenge of the coming confrontation or shrink from it? Either way, there will be consequences for U.S. interests abroad and at home.

During last Friday’s prayers in Tehran, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran would continue its nuclear program. His remarks were broadcast on Iranian state television. In these remarks to worshippers, Khamenei reiterated Iran’s threat to wipe Israel — “a cancerous tumor that should be cut and will be cut” — off the map, and averred that Iran will aid any nation or group that attacks Israel. The Associated Press reports that he explicitly acknowledged that Iran has supported and will support Hezbollah and Hamas attacks.

The gravity of the supreme leader’s remarks is underlined by Iran’s inexorable progress toward acquiring nuclear weapons and the means of delivering them. Iran already has missiles that could deliver a nuclear weapon throughout the Middle East and parts of Europe. It also has made great progress on technology for long-range missiles that could carry nuclear weapons and that could reach North America, as evidenced by three successful launches of orbiting satellites, the most recent last week. Also last week, U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta and high-level Israeli officials said what many have been predicting — that Israel is going to attack Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities unless Iran verifiably eliminates its nuclear-weapons program immediately. Mr. Panetta even gave a time frame. He predicted that the Israeli attack will be launched sometime in the April-to-June period.
For Israel, the risk of waiting is immense. As has been said, Israel cannot take a 10 percent chance of 100 percent annihilation. In addition, Iran is fortifying the defenses of its nuclear sites, and they may soon be nearly impossible to destroy. It will have reached an “immunity zone,” as Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak has described it.
The supreme leader’s vitriol at last Friday’s prayers was not restricted to Israel. It was targeted at the U.S. as well. This should be no surprise. Iran since 1980 has declared the U.S. to be its enemy. It has attacked the U.S. through proxies repeatedly — e.g. the 1983 attack on the Marines barracks in Lebanon that killed 241 American servicemen, the 1996 Khobar Towers attack in Saudi Arabia that killed 19 U.S. Air Force personnel, continuing Iranian support for attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan since 2003, and last October’s foiled plot to assassinate Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the U.S. on U.S. soil.
A nuclear-armed Iran with the hegemonic ambitions Supreme Leader Khamenei also acknowledged in his Friday prayer remarks would view itself as free to step up its aggression against American personnel and assets. It would also step up aggressive action and intimidation of the U.S.’s Arab allies in the Middle East. And, of course, it might well try to make good on its threat to wipe Israel off the map.
A failure on America’s part to support an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would have serious consequences for the U.S. at home and abroad. The inevitable Iranian counterattack would doubtless include attacks on American citizens and property, just as if the U.S. had participated in the attack directly. American blood would be spilled and American treasure expended. A failure to support Israel would have additional consequences that may be less obvious but also are grave. If the U.S. failed to support Israel in its hour of need, America’s position of influence in the world would take a crippling blow.