Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Dem Early Vote Lead In Florida Down 70% Over 2008
But a Republican yesterday noted that at this point in 2008, Democrats held a 134,774-vote lead in Florida. As of yesterday. Democrats led by less than 41,000 – a nearly 70 percent drop.
The Obama campaign does not dispute those numbers.
For those of you saying, "That's all well and good but Obama is still ahead," here are more hard numbers: 2.2 million early votes have thus far been cast in the Sunshine State. This isn't a juicy-juice poll, these are cold hard numbers. Among those early votes cast, Democrats are only up 43-41%. Yes, that's still a two point lead, but Romney is winning Independents in Florida by anywhere from 6 to 10%, and thus far 17% of Florida Indies have voted early.
That likely isn’t enough of a cushion to overcome the two-point deficit, but it's just a fact that on Election Day, Republicans turn out at a higher percentage than Democrats. Also, the most recent polls out of Florida do not in any way match up to the actual early vote numbers. Rasmussen has Obama winning the early vote by 10 points but still losing 50-48% to Romney. It's not lag time, either. Rasmussen's poll was taken last Friday. The actual early vote count showing Democrats only up 2% was released yesterday.
The just-released Quinnipiac polls showing Obama up one in Florida shows Obama beating Romney by six-points with early voters. The last date of this particular survey was Sunday. So there might be a lag-time, but a jump in four points in just two days with 2.2 million early votes already cast is a huge jump and unlikely.
Finally, almost every poll, including today's from Quinnipiac, show Republican enthusiasm at or nearing a double-digit advantage over Democrats -- and we Righties like to vote on Election Day.