Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Gallup: Romney Winning Popular Vote; All Eyes Turn To Midwest

Day by day by day, Gallup is proving itself to not be the outlier Democrats have counted on. With today's 51-46% lead for Mitt Romney, we have entered day eight of Gallup showing Romney over 50 and Obama stuck in the mid-forties. What we're seeing is no one-day fluke, either. This is a real, sustained lead. Rasmussen confirmed this with its three-day tracking poll today, 50-46% for Romney. There's no question the popular vote is pretty much in the bag. But that doesn't mean Romney wins the presidency. He still has to win the electoral college. 


States are always lagging indicators in polling and it’s hard to imagine Romney winning the popular vote (Obama's lost 5 points in the IBD poll in two days) by more than two points and still losing the electoral college. But there's plenty of time for the race to still tighten to where it's us getting Gored this time.  
There really are only two scenarios at this point. The race breaks Romney's way (which might be happening now) or the race tightens and it's 2000 all over again. Right now, at least, it's looking like the momentum remains with Romney -- even in the states.
A New Hampshire poll has Romney up two and a Nevada poll only has him down two. That's real momentum. The latest poll out of Colorado has Romney up by four and three of the last four polls in Virginia have Romney in the lead. As much as I hate to buy into any media narrative, though, Ohio is increasingly looking like ground zero, and while Romney's tied in a couple of polls, he's only shown a one-point lead in one poll out of the last ten.
Like I said, state polls do lag behind the national numbers, but we can't just sit around and assume that will be the case in a complicated state like Ohio.
You need to volunteer and contribute money as though the fate of your country depends on it -- because it does and will until this failure is out of office.

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