Bush May Have to Choose Between Musharraf, Bhutto in Terror War

Nov. 20 -- President George W. Bush, who has been promoting a power-sharing agreement between Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf and opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, may instead be forced by events to choose between them.

Over the weekend, Musharraf rejected Deputy U.S. Secretary of State John Negroponte's face-to-face demand to end the state of emergency he declared in the country, and Bhutto told CNN she doubted free elections -- a crucial element of any power- sharing arrangement -- could be held under current conditions.

The result is that the U.S. may have to decide which of them would be more effective against terrorism and indigenous Islamic radicals. The choice isn't an attractive one: While some U.S. officials are skeptical of Bhutto because of what they regard as her ineffectual rule as prime minister, there's a growing awareness that time may be running out for longtime ally Musharraf.

``The war on terror is to some extent a battle of narratives,'' said P.J. Crowley, a former Air Force colonel who served in President Bill Clinton's White House and is now a national-security analyst at the Center for American Progress in Washington. ``The extremists' narrative is that we are at war with Islam and are propping up illegitimate governments. The last thing we can afford is to do things that support their narrative.''

Bush's paramount aim is to preserve stability in the nuclear-armed nation and allow Pakistan's army to focus on fighting al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters in the region bordering Afghanistan.

Political Turmoil

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates says his greatest concern is that the political turmoil unleashed by Musharraf's Nov. 3 declaration of emergency rule would distract the army from the fight against extremist forces in the border area.

``His ability to lead, to continue to be a partner in the war on terror, very much depends on how developments unfold over the next few weeks,'' Gates said Nov. 15. ``He needs to move beyond the emergency measures as quickly as possible.''

The fight against al-Qaeda and the Taliban isn't going well. U.S. officials say the Pakistani army has been unable to control the extremists, who are now spreading from the largely ungoverned tribal frontier areas into adjacent areas.

Some Pakistanis say Musharraf has made matters worse in the tribal areas by treating the indigenous population with such contempt that they were pushed into the radicals' arms.

Unhappy With Musharraf

``They are unhappy with Musharraf not because they have links with al-Qaeda or the Taliban,'' said Farooq Hasnat, the former chairman of the political science department at the University of Punjab in Lahore. ``They are unhappy because Musharraf has been talking to them as if they are inferior to other Pakistanis.''

Kamran Shafi, a retired Pakistani army officer and Bhutto's former press secretary, said Musharraf is increasingly perceived as a ``Pakistani Tonto'' who has been ``riding shotgun for the policies of a very stupid U.S. administration.''

A return to democratic rule is essential to assuage the grievances of the tribal people and marginalize indigenous Muslim extremists who thrive in an atmosphere of crisis and confrontation, he said.

``Musharraf has had eight years and has made such a mess of things that there is far more extremism in Pakistan today than ever before,'' Shafi said.

Military Support

For all these problems, Musharraf, 64, still holds the support of the Pakistani military, the most powerful institution in society, said Zia Mian, a Pakistani scholar at Princeton University in New Jersey.

Even now, Mian said, Musharraf and Bhutto, 54, have been careful to keep their options open for a possible deal. ``Both sides are making it up as they go along,'' he said.

U.S. officials still see power sharing as possible, because the two sides aren't that far apart, said a State Department official who spoke on condition of anonymity. At the same time, the official said, U.S. leaders are starting to face the realization that Musharraf may not be able to survive -- or that even if he does, he will be seriously weakened.

Bhutto, who governed Pakistan from 1988 until 1990 and gain from 1993 to 1996, has issues of her own. A senior U.S. military official said he is skeptical about her ability to lead Pakistan effectively, citing what he said was her tolerance of corruption during her premiership. Bhutto also backed the Taliban's rise to power in Afghanistan during her second term, although she now is hostile to the movement.

The result is what Crowley called ``a core conundrum'' for the U.S., which has invested more than $10 billion in aid to Musharraf's government since the Sept. 11 attacks.

``We have viewed Musharraf as our man and we have allowed him for eight years to give lip service to a return to civilian rule, but deliver relatively little,'' Crowley said. ``The longer this goes on, the more likely Musharraf has to be viewed as the problem and not the solution.''