Nov. 22 -- Japanese bonds rose, pushing the 10- year yield to the lowest in two years, as a global slump in corporate debt and equity markets prompted investors to buy government securities.
The risk of Japanese companies defaulting on their debt rose to a record after rating companies downgraded $34.8 billion of securities tied to mortgage bonds. Bank of Japan board member Seiji Nakamura said today ``downside risks'' to U.S. economic expansion are rising as the housing recession worsens.
``The yen bond market is one of the safer places to put your money,'' said Yuuki Sakurai, general manager of financial and investment planning in Tokyo at Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance Co., which manages the equivalent of $41.5 billion in assets. ``It's not about price or yield anymore.''
The yield on the 1.7 percent bond due September 2017 fell 1 basis point to 1.41 percent at 12:36 a.m. in Tokyo at Japan Bond Trading Co., the nation's largest interdealer debt broker. It earlier declined to 1.395 percent, the lowest since Sept. 27, 2005. The price rose 0.088 to 102.499.
Ten-year bond futures for December delivery were little changed at 137.30 in Tokyo. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
Benchmark bonds are set to complete a four-week rally that has driven yields down by almost fifth of a percentage point on concerns that losses related to U.S. mortgage defaults will spread, slowing global economic growth.
Japan became the first of the world's 10 biggest stock markets to enter a bear market yesterday when the Topix index declined 20 percent from its 2007 peak. The benchmark dropped another 0.8 percent today.
Foreign Purchases
Japan's bonds typically move in the opposite direction to stocks. Benchmark 10-year yields had a correlation of 0.96 with the Nikkei 225 Stock Average this month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A value of 1 would mean the two moved in lockstep. The Nikkei dropped 0.4 percent today.
Overseas funds bought more Japanese bonds than they sold for a seventh week, the longest period of net purchases since June, according to government figures based on reports from designated major investors in Tokyo. They bought 58.9 billion yen in Japanese bonds, sold 302.3 billion yen in stocks, during the week ended Nov. 17, the data showed.
Investors shifted to bonds as the rout in global equities reduced expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates before the April next year.
``Our main scenario is the BOJ to raise rates in February, however the chances are declining because concerns over a U.S. slowdown are increasing,'' said Junko Nishioka, senior economist at ABN Amro Securities in Tokyo.
Three-month Euroyen futures, among the most sensitive to a change in rate expectations, indicate traders have pared bets over the past month on a central bank rate increase during the first quarter. Contracts for March delivery yielded 0.83 percent today, down from 0.94 percent on Oct. 10, a two-month high.
Yield Curve
``Housing investment continues to decline and consumer sentiment-related indicators are worsening because of the subprime-mortgage problem,'' BOJ board member Nakamura, 65, said today at a business meeting in Hiroshima, western Japan. A U.S. slowdown ``may affect other economies, posing downside risks to the global economy, and it may affect Japan somewhat,'' he said.
The central bank's Deputy Governor Toshiro Muto said in a Nov. 15 interview that deciding interest rates is becoming ``difficult'' amid rising uncertainty over the global economy.
``It's very hard for BOJ to raise rates so the yield curve is going to be very flat,'' said Fukoku's Sakurai. ``You could place your money into the 10-year or 20-year to have a much better yield than investing in five-years or two-years,'' he said.
The difference in yields between five- and 10-year debt narrowed to about 40 basis points today, compared with 53 basis points reached on Oct. 30, the widest in almost 10 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Gains in bonds may be tempered by speculation 10-year yields at a 22-month low will deter investors from buying.
`Too Low'
A technical chart traders use to predict yield changes suggests 10-year bonds are poised to decline. The 10-day relative strength index on 10-year yields was about 23 today. A level below 30 suggests buying of the security may have peaked.
``The current level is far too low,'' said Tatsuo Ichikawa, a bond strategist at ABN Amro Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo. ``The five-year rate is very low considering the Bank of Japan wants to raise rates.''
The iTraxx Japan Series 8 Index of default swaps rose 3.25 basis points to 49 basis points, according to Morgan Stanley. It eclipsed an earlier record of 48 basis points reached by the previous index on July 30. The benchmark, revised every six months, contains credit-default swaps tied to 50 Japanese companies including All Nippon Airways Co. and Japan Tobacco Inc.
Credit-default swaps, financial instruments based on bonds or loans, were conceived to protect bondholders by paying the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities should the borrower default. A decrease in the price indicates improving investor perceptions of credit quality and an increase suggests deterioration.
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