Bolivian Breakup?

In May 2006, Bolivia moved to nationalize its natural gas fields in four eastern provinces. But it got a surprise this weekend when those provinces moved to nationalize themselves. It might just be the right idea.

Governors of the provinces of Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando and Tarija declared autonomy over the weekend before huge appreciative crowds. If their declarations attract enough signatures for a referendum next year, it could be the first step toward the breakup of Bolivia.

Some 83% of eastern Bolivians support it, and they're not alone. Autonomy also would pass in two other of Bolivia's nine provinces, a recent Equipos Mori poll shows.

Why not? The idea of autonomy has been around in the eastern part of Bolivia since the Butch and Sundance days, but it has gotten a surge of momentum from a government attempt to foist a Venezuelan-style constitution onto the nation. With international organizations such as the United Nations and the Organization of American States doing little to express disapproval at the decline of democracy in Bolivia, the only alternative left is the old one — to fight.

What Bolivia's lowlanders are confronting are vastly expanding presidential powers and fewer protections for political and ethnic minorities. The government of leftist President Evo Morales, Bolivia's first indigenous ruler, would confer special rights on some groups, end rule of law for all in favor of local tribal justice, and install a suspect means of elections.

Worse, Morales has a separate bill on "land reform" to seize the east's productive farms, break them up and redistribute them to aggrieved minority groups on political grounds. The inefficiency that would follow would effectively halt Bolivia's agricultural exports.

Morales, of course, calls the autonomy move illegal and vows to send in troops. In the face of that threat and the power grab along with the global indifference to the destruction of Bolivia's democracy, the most logical response is to just get out.

Political actions in Bolivia are often symbolic, but there are indications that this one might be more. Unlike many secessionist moves, this isn't a have-not region seeking self-rule, but the embattled rich part of the nation with economic clout. One-third of Bolivians live in the four states, but produce two-thirds of the country's wealth and they can either stand by and lose all they've built or fight back.

Huge amounts of money are at stake in Bolivia's natural gas and agricultural industries, which export. That's brought in foreign players, which raises the stakes further.

One is Morales' ally, Venezuela, which has had a major hand in the "nationalization" of Bolivia's energy resources last year. In recent months, Venezuela has quietly flown its own troops into the country, with Santa Cruz airport officials saying some 200 flights have been logged, according to the Washington Times. Angry Bolivians from one of the eastern provinces stoned a troop-carrying aircraft in October. Not only do the Venezuelan troops provoke the locals into seeking more autonomy, they could add to the fighting if the provinces secede.

On the demand side of energy, Brazil, Argentina and Chile have national interests at stake, too.

Brazil also depends on natural gas from Bolivia, as does Argentina, and secretly, Chile. If an independence war breaks out, private intelligence forecasters such as Stratfor report that it is likely the battlefield will occur in the vicinity of the gas fields, raising the odds that they would get caught in the crossfire.

If Morales could give up his quest for Hugo Chavez-like powers and accept that the provinces want more control over their finances, their land and their security, war might be averted. But because he has shown every disregard for rule of law, Bolivia's productive regions are confronted with either the loss of their wealth or going it alone. Who should stop them?