Global Risk: What Should Be Keeping You Up At Night?

The panel starts with the big question: What keeps you up at night?

For William Anderson, it's pandemic influenza he says that "if H5N1 (bird flu) were to go easily transmissible human-to-human and maintain its lethality it would be devastating." He is also worried about acts of terrorism or bioterrorism.

Wesley Clark mentions biological threats as well as the situation in Iran and the state of unstable equilibrium that currently exists. He says that "if it were any other President I think we would learn to live with Iran" but due to Bush's hardline approach on the Middle East this could turn into a military situation.

For George Hoguet there are a series of events that he believes could catch the stock market by surprise. Specifically he sees an oil price spike ($120 per barrel), global imbalances (U.S deficit, falling dollar) and a policy mistake by the Fed and a housing bust as the biggest threat. He points out that there is $500 million in adjustable rate mortgages which are going to reset in 2007/2008.

Marc Miles looks at the pressure points in the world. Much of Eastern Europe has a flat tax. This creates pressure on other countries in surrounding areas. He feels that the violence that we have seen in France is just the start saying that "we are seeing the beginnings of a revolution in France." He also sees Latin America as a hot spot, saying that Hugo Chavez, the leader of Venezuela has oil money that he can use to influence the rest of Latin America. he also has a satellite network that broadcasts him throughout Latin America.The moderator notes that we get 32% of our oil from Nigeria, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia which leaves the U.S. vulnerable. Wesley Clark mentions that there is a lot of research being done on new oil places. He also feels that Hugo Chavez is preparing for war against the U.S. and so we need to contain him and not get drawn into a quarrel with him. Joel Kurtzman chimes in saying that Latin America is moving rapidly to the left. Peru, Chile and Venezuela are all there and Mexico may follow this summer. Wesley Clark says that "we shouldn't be overly concerned about the move to the left." He tells of how he went to Panama recently and was told that America's plans to build a giant immigration fence are influencing South America and pushing Mexico to the left.

George Hoguet mentions that in the period of 1890-1914, we had a period of globalization similar to this one and William Anderson questions what will happen if the the liberal international system breaks down.

Another key issue is that Western Europe is being "left behind." The moderator says that half the growth in the world over the past 15 years came from the United States and the other part came from Russia, China, India and other countries. None of that came from Europe. Is Europe being passed by? Marc Miles says that there is a power shift taking place from Western Europe to Central Europe. Western Europe isn't reproducing. Wesley Clark points out that the only people in that area who are reproducing are the Muslims. He questions the changing definition of Europe? What will it be in the future? Will Turkey be part of Europe? He says that the Turkish economy is growing rapidly and could be the biggest country in the E.U. in time. He believes that it is important to attempt to bring Turkey into the fold.

Wesley Clark also feels that "the big transformation we are missing in the U.S. is how to harness the civilian power to help developing nations (as opposed to military troops). We haven't done this in Iraq, we did in Vietnam." This makes William Anderson (who works for the government) a bit testy, saying "I don't want to deal with Iraq right now." Clark snaps back with "you broke it you bought it." (Check out the video of this conference for this must-see moment). He also goes on to say that in order to keep the security in a country you have to keep people employed and rebuild schools. We haven't been able to do this yet.

The next subject up for debate is the great divide between the haves and have nots. Many people in the world still work for under $1 per day. Marc Miles points out that many of many of these countries have created policies that don't help their people get jobs. William Anderson says that India and China are set to be the biggest beneficiaries of globalization. George Hoguet likens China to Japan after WWII, embarking on a grand path of prosperity. But Wesley Clark wonders if China will be able to handle the economic boom and if the government will be able to distribute the economic resources effectively.

Questions from the audience include one on the issue of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Wesley Clark says that he thought that President Bush was going in the right direction to do more with India but the nuclear question is always an issue. We have an opportunity to bring Pakistan into the fold and we should be looking at commercial law and how to resolve economic problems as the "first line of attack against extremism and terrorism." Marc Miles points out that we complain about what the U.S. hasn't done but the U.N. has also failed Afghanistan.

Another question addresses the fact that logically we are now are able to feed and clothe the world. Why isn't this being done? Marc Miles says once again that it's the countries that adapt policies which keep people from prospering. Wesley Clark gets philosophical wondering if we did solve the world's problems how would we motivate people.

Finally, a questioner brings up the global warming/environmental issue which none of the panelists have mentioned yet. Wesley Clark says that he agrees that it is a big challenge and calls it " the highest medium-term risk." He points out that "if we try to give China and India the same standard of living we enjoy the results would be dramatic." Governments in the immediate feature have to get a grip on this. William Anderson says it is also on his list. He refers to it as environmental alteration. He mentions a 2020 report he did for the government and that he consulted with scientists and found that it is not going to matter in the next few years but by 2050 it could be a concern.

What should we watch for over the next ten years?
William Anderson says that the continuing globalization process needs to be monitored and that environmental issues are a factor. Wesley Clark says that the Persian Gulf, biological catastrophe and disturbances in developing countries concern him. George Hoguet cites a unraveling of globalization, conflict in the Middle East and Marc Miles says that any reaction to upheaval worries him.