`New Iron Curtain' Descends in EU Free-Travel Split (Update1)
Dec. 18 -- Along a tree-lined road in eastern Lithuania, once part of the Soviet Union, Giedrius Matkevicius was on the prowl for invaders from neighboring Belarus, another ex-Soviet state.
``Our job has become more important, more significant, now that we have to guard the external border of the EU,'' the 36- year-old customs officer said as he monitored a bank of computers in a cement and sheet-metal complex at the frontier. Nearby, a female colleague in an olive-green uniform scanned live images of snowy fields, truck inspections and passing cars.
Where only tall pines once separated the countries, a 679- kilometer (422-mile) fence now reminds 9.7 million Belarusians that they are outsiders in a European Union that includes western neighbors Lithuania, Latvia and Poland. The line becomes even more pronounced on Dec. 21, when those three and five other ex-communist nations join a club within the EU club: the so- called Schengen Zone, where citizens and tourists travel without passports.
Schengen members are open to each other, but not to the outside world. So the EU has erected a $2 billion barrier of barbed wire, cameras and motion detectors along its eastern frontiers, themselves new since the union's enlargement three years ago. The move has raised protests among residents along both sides of the border, two decades after Communism's collapse heralded an end to a divided Europe.
Cafe Complaint
``It's going to be a new Iron Curtain for all intents and purposes,'' Samuel Horkay, an ethnic Hungarian who is a Ukrainian citizen, said as he sat in a cafe on the Ukrainian side. ``That's a strong way to put it, but Europe loves to guard its borders.'' Horkay, 59, crosses the border at least twice a year to see his ailing mother in the Hungarian village of Sarospatak.
Ukrainians, Belarusians, Serbs and Croats say they will be isolated from family members, while owners of businesses that depend on cross-border traffic fret about the economic impact.
``Poland's entrance into the Schengen zone must not create new barriers for people of our countries,'' Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, who won office on his support for integration with the EU, said at a Kiev press conference on Dec. 6.
The Schengen zone, named for the wine-making town in Luxembourg where the agreement was signed in 1985, currently allows unhindered travel between 13 western EU countries plus the non-EU states of Norway and Iceland. The U.K. and Ireland, both EU members, have opted out of the program.
Road, Rail and Sea
The zone makes it easier for EU citizens to travel and spend freely. This month's expansion, the largest since Schengen was conceived, will allow free road, rail and sea travel between older EU nations and the ex-communist members -- Lithuania, Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Estonia, Latvia and Slovenia -- plus Malta, all of which joined in 2004. Unfettered air travel begins at the end of March.
In most of the new Schengen nations, ``there are generations that went through decades without truly having the freedom to travel,'' said Friso Roscam Abbing, a spokesman for EU Justice Commissioner Franco Frattini. ``For them, this is an incredibly important issue.''
The Schengen system is designed to foil smugglers and human traffickers dealing in prostitution and forced labor.
To meet the standards, the EU's eastern members had to beef up security on the 6,398-kilometer land and sea frontier. Brussels contributed $1.5 billion, while individual governments added as much as $500 million.
Worth Paying
Florian Geyer, a research fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels, said the enhanced security is a price worth paying for freedom inside the zone. ``This is a negative outcome, but otherwise, I think it would not be politically possible to achieve the free-area zone,'' he said.
Cyprus, which also became an EU member three years ago, is working to join Schengen in 2009 along with non-EU-member Switzerland. Romania and Bulgaria may be accepted in 2011, Roscam Abbing said.
Travel between such non-EU countries as Belarus, Ukraine and Russia, which does not require a visa, remains unchanged. To get into the new Schengen countries, though, residents of those nations face longer border lines and other impediments. Ukrainians, for instance, will have to pay a tourist entry visa fee of as much as 35 euros ($51), if they can get one at all.
`A Lot Harder'
Oksana Doroshenko, a 35-year-old Kiev schoolteacher, said she was forced to drop plans recently to visit Krakow after the Polish consulate refused to give her and a friend tourist visas, without saying why.
``I don't know whether the situation will improve some day, but now it will only get worse,'' she said.
Some on the other side of the line aren't happy either. Vladimir Ondrus, a Slovak taxi driver who regularly fills his gas tank in Ukraine, where pump prices are half those at home, lamented that ``once Schengen is in place, this type of shopping will get a lot harder.''
The situation may be even more dire for Marija Zamkevic, a Lithuanian who regularly enters Belarus to bring her aging mother back from Minsk for short visits.
Under Soviet rule, which ended with Lithuania's independence in 1990, there was no border between Belarus and Lithuania. Now, ``I'm worried how Schengen will affect our mom,'' Zamkevic said as her gray-haired mother sat in the back seat of their white car at the Belarus border, her mouth set in a tight frown. ``How difficult will it be? I don't know.''
Mexico Senators May Break Pemex Monopoly on Refining (Update2)
Dec. 18 -- Petroleos Mexicanos, the largest crude producer in Latin America, may lose its 69-year monopoly on refining and pipelines as Mexican President Felipe Calderon pushes the company to stem declines in oil output and reserves.
A plan being discussed by the Senate Energy Committee would allow private companies to operate pipelines, refineries and distribute oil products in Mexico, said Sen. Ruben Camarillo, a member of Calderon's National Action Party.
Pemex's oil exploration is hampered by a lack of funds, even as crude trades near record prices, because its budget is sapped by repairs to crumbling infrastructure and taxes that take more than half of sales. Reducing Pemex's role in refining, pipelines and fuel distribution would free up cash at the third-largest crude supplier to the U.S., Camarillo said.
``There's a great opportunity for private companies to participate,'' Camarillo, secretary of the Senate Energy Committee, said in a Dec. 14 interview in Mexico City. ``Pipelines, transportation, distribution and storage are areas that are falling behind.''
Allowing private companies to play a bigger role in the state-controlled oil industry is a long-held goal of Calderon's party. Mexico's crude output may drop by a third by 2016 unless lawmakers ease rules on Petroleos Mexicanos, Energy Minister Georgina Kessel said last week.
The Energy Committee may propose changes in as many as 10 oil and gas laws, including allowing the appointment of independent board members to Pemex, said Camarillo and fellow committee member Arturo Nunez, a member of the opposition Party of the Democratic Revolution.
Proven Reserves
Proven oil reserves at Pemex cover nine years of production at current rates. The company lacks the technology to drill in fields located more than 1,500 meters below sea level, where most of Mexico's crude is.
Calderon's plan faces opposition from the Party of the Democratic Revolution, which says Pemex's taxes, at 57 percent of sales, should be cut so it can invest in production, refining and other areas. Pemex generates about 40 percent of federal revenue.
``They say there isn't enough money to invest in pipelines, refineries,'' Nunez said in a Dec. 17 interview. ``That's false. The problem is the federal government.''
Opposition may also come in the form of demonstrations. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Nunez's fellow party member and a former presidential candidate, has vowed protests should the government try to ``privatize'' Pemex. He organized two months of demonstrations last year after losing the presidential vote to Calderon.
Alliances
Camarillo said the committee hasn't yet discussed amending the Mexican constitution, which bans companies other than Pemex from owning oil and gas fields. Kessel and Pemex Chief Executive Officer Jesus Reyes Heroles have said the company needs alliances to be able to explore and produce from its deepwater deposits.
``There are many companies that operate in the Gulf of Mexico that have the technology Pemex doesn't have,'' Reyes Heroles said in an interview with Mexico City-based Radio Formula yesterday.
Calderon convinced Congress to pass other reforms this year, including tax increases and pension spending cuts, with the aid of the opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party. He may also be successful with an energy bill because the drop in oil output is forcing lawmakers to act, said Roger Tissot, an energy analyst with the Washington-based consulting firm PFC Energy.
Reserves, Production
``Everybody can see the results in terms of declining production and declining reserves,'' Tissot said in a telephone interview. ``The two sides are coming to an understanding that something needs to be done.''
Calderon's party has scrapped ideas of privatizing Pemex and the Institutional Revolutionary Party and other opposition groups have accepted that allowing more private investment in the oil industry isn't equivalent to ``selling the motherland,'' Tissot said.
Camarillo said Energy Committee members agreed they wouldn't ``auction off Mexico's oil'' or ``privatize Pemex.''
Senator Francisco Labastida, president of the Energy Committee and a member of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, declined to be interviewed for this article.
Private and foreign investment in Mexico's oil and gas industry has been limited and faced court challenges brought by legislators in the past few years.
Since 2003, Pemex has hired companies including Petroleo Brasileiro SA to drill for gas in the Burgos Basin in exchange for a fee. Earlier this year Pemex, hired private companies to maintain pipelines and manage drilling in the Ebano-Panuco oil field. Some natural gas pipelines in Mexico are owned by private companies.
Turkey Starts Withdrawal From Areas of Northern Iraq (Update2)
Dec. 18 -- Turkish troops began to withdraw from several areas in northern Iraq after 700 soldiers crossed the frontier late yesterday to target Kurdish militants who have carried out cross-border attacks.
Turkey's forces started to pull back after they penetrated 8 kilometers (5 miles) into Iraq's majority-Kurdish north, Iraqi President Jalal Talabani's Patriotic Union of Kurdistan said on the party's Web site.
The country has been fighting the Kurdistan Workers' Party, known by its Kurdish initials PKK, which is seeking autonomy for Turkey's largely Kurdish southeast and uses northern Iraq as a base from which to attack Turkish forces.
The army ``is doing what's necessary and will continue to do so,'' Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said at a news conference in Ankara today, without elaborating on any Turkish operations on the border.
The Turkish military issued a statement on its Web site late today saying it conducted a ``small-scale'' ground operation in ``hot pursuit'' of a group of rebels attempting to cross into Turkey during the night of Dec. 17-18. Turkish troops dealt them a ``heavy blow'' during the clash, which took place several kilometers inside Iraq, according to the statement. The account from the Turkish General Staff didn't cite the number of soldiers involved.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrived in the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk earlier today and later met Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari in Baghdad in a trip the State Department said was unrelated to the incursion. She was also scheduled to meet Talabani in Baghdad, state television said.
U.S. Concerns
The U.S., alarmed about the prospect of a conflict in a relatively peaceful area of Iraq, has been working with Turkey to prevent a broad military offensive across the border. The Turkish government had complained for more than two years that Iraq and the U.S., which classifies the PKK as a terrorist group, hadn't done enough to stop the group from using northern Iraq as a base.
``We have made clear to the Turkish government that we continue to be concerned about anything that could lead to innocent civilian casualties or to a destabilization of the north,'' Rice said at a televised news conference today in Baghdad.
U.S. commanders and diplomats in Baghdad were angry to hear about Turkey's bombing attack in Iraq to pursue Kurdish rebels only after the warplanes had crossed the border, the Associated Press reported, citing unidentified officials.
`Limited' Action
Zebari called the Turkish move a ``limited military incursion'' and said it occurred ``high up in the mountains in unpopulated areas.'' The Iraqi and regional authorities are monitoring the movements, he said.
``We have shared, common goals here,'' he said. ``We want stability and security in Iraq and with Iraq's neighbors also and the border areas.''
In Washington, President George W. Bush's spokeswoman, Dana Perino, said the U.S. is coordinating with the Turkish and Iraqi authorities in the area.
``The PKK is a threat to Turkey, to Iraq and to the United States, so we continue to share information, share intelligence with them,'' Perino told reporters at the White House. ``We have asked Turkey to keep the operations very targeted and limited.''
Bush, Erdogan
Bush's agreement Nov. 5 at a meeting with Erdogan to provide ``actionable intelligence'' to the Turks for limited, surgical strikes on PKK infrastructure and camps has helped improve ties, said Stephen Larrabee, a Turkey expert at the research group RAND Corp. in Washington.
``This is what the Turks have been looking for the past three years,'' Larrabee said in a telephone interview today. ``The United States has committed itself to seriously helping the Turks resolve their terrorism problem with the PKK, and this is likely to have an important positive impact on relations and on public opinion in Turkey.''
The conflict between Turkey and the PKK has lasted more than 20 years and has cost almost 40,000 lives. Kurds are the Middle East's largest stateless ethnic group, with about 30 million living in the mountainous regions of Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey.
Besides the local leaders, Rice met with U.S. officials who are working on reconstruction in Kirkuk. A State Department spokesman, Tom Casey, said Rice's visit to Iraq was planned weeks ago.
``Did Secretary Rice change plans and go to Kirkuk because of Turkish military action? The answer is no,'' Casey said. ``She sees the military actions as similar to previous military actions that have been going on for at least a year.''
Attack Authorized
Erdogan's government on Nov. 28 authorized the army to attack PKK targets inside Iraq after the Kurdish rebel group stepped up its activities.
Turkish warplanes bombed bases used by the PKK in Iraq's Zap, Hakurk and Avasin regions and the Qandil mountains on Dec. 16, Turkey's military said on its Web site.
Iraq's Kurds may provoke further Turkish wrath by pushing to extend their self-governing territory southward into the oil fields dominated by the contested city of Kirkuk. The region gained autonomy after the 1991 Gulf War, as coalition forces protected the north from attack by Saddam Hussein's troops.
``The United States is very interested in the future of this very important province. Kirkuk is very critical,'' Rice said in between meetings with local government officials in the oil-rich region.
Kirkuk Issue
Rice's surprise visit to Kirkuk demonstrates the U.S. ``is now taking a high-profile interest in the issue of Kirkuk, which from the Turkish side, in principle, is positive,'' Larrabee said.
The question of whether Kirkuk should be controlled by the Kurdish autonomous region may be settled in a proposed referendum.
The Bush administration wants the United Nations to help settle Kirkuk's status, while Turkey prefers a ballot among all Iraqis to decide the city's future. Iraq's constitution calls only for the residents of a disputed area to vote in any referendum on its future.
Tensions between the government in Baghdad and the Kurdish region have been heightened over the signing of oil contracts by the Kurds without the consent of the Iraqi leadership.
Goldman Gains in Worst Wall Street Quarter Since '01 (Update5)
Dec. 18 -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's largest securities firm, reported record earnings in the worst quarter for Wall Street in six years.
Fourth-quarter net income climbed 2 percent to $3.22 billion, or $7.01 a share, from $3.15 billion, or $6.59, a year earlier, the New York-based firm said in a statement. Goldman fell 3.4 percent in New York Stock Exchange composite trading after Chief Financial Officer David Viniar said he was ``cautious about the near-term outlook.''
Goldman's earnings were buoyed by $1.3 billion of gains from the sale of power plant investments and loans to finance leveraged buyouts. Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein sidestepped mortgage losses that unseated CEOs at Merrill Lynch & Co., Citigroup Inc. and UBS AG.
``You would never have thought there was a subprime problem, not from their numbers anyway,'' said Rose Grant, who helps manage about $2 billion, including Goldman shares, at Boston-based Eastern Investment Advisors.
Goldman fell $7.12 to $201.51 at 4:01 p.m. in NYSE trading, after the firm said revenue in the three months ended Nov. 30 declined from the prior quarter, led by a 32 percent drop in fixed-income trading.
``The weakest thing environmentally in the fourth quarter was the credit markets in November,'' Viniar said in a conference call with analysts. ``It's too early to tell in December'' how the markets are developing.
Core Items?
Compared with the third quarter, ``negatives included weaker fixed-income trading, lower equity trading and debt underwriting,'' Deutsche Bank AG analyst Mike Mayo wrote in a note to investors today. ``There will likely be debate about which items are `core' or not.''
Fourth-quarter revenue in Goldman's fixed income, currency and commodities division, the firm's largest, climbed 6 percent to $3.3 billion from a year earlier. The results included a gain of about $800 million from Cogentrix Energy LLC, the Goldman subsidiary that sold 80 percent of its stake in 14 power plants during the quarter.
Goldman also booked a $500 million gain as loans to finance leveraged buyouts increased in value during the quarter, partially offsetting a $1.48 billion writedown on loans and loan commitments in the previous period.
Firmwide revenue rose to $10.7 billion, up 14 percent from the fourth quarter of 2006, Goldman said. Return on equity, a measure of how effectively the company reinvests earnings, was 34.6 percent in the fourth quarter, down from 41.5 percent a year earlier.
Mortgage Impact
Goldman is the second of Wall Street's five largest firms to post fourth-quarter earnings. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the fourth-biggest by market value, reported last week that profit dropped 12 percent and said losses from the collapse of the subprime mortgage market will probably extend into next year.
Viniar declined to disclose the size of any writedowns or gains on mortgage-related securities, saying only that the total impact on the firm was ``modest.''
Goldman had less than $400 million in collateralized debt obligations at the end of the fourth quarter and less than $1.5 billion in subprime mortgage-related assets, Viniar said. The firm's so-called Level 3 assets, which are hardest to value, fell to 6 percent of total assets in the period from 7 percent in the third quarter, he said.
Rivals Fall
Analysts predict Morgan Stanley and Bear Stearns Cos., the second- and fifth-biggest firms, will report their first-ever quarterly losses later this week because of wrong-way bets on mortgage-related securities. Merrill Lynch & Co., the third- largest, will post its financial results next month. Goldman was expected to earn $3.14 billion in the quarter, according to the average estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
Total profit for the five companies will decline 61 percent in the fourth quarter, analysts predict. The drop would be steeper than the previous quarter's 53 percent and the worst since the fourth quarter of 2001, when earnings shrank 88 percent.
``Just looking at the world's capital markets and looking at the lack of liquidity that we saw in November, it has to make us cautious,'' Viniar said today in a telephone interview.
Goldman shares gained 1 percent this year, while shares of its major rivals fell. The firm's full-year profit climbed 22 percent to a record $11.6 billion and revenue increased 22 percent to $46 billion.
`Head and Shoulders'
``Goldman's results stand head-and-shoulders above its competitors, many of whom have struggled with the difficulties in the mortgage market this past year,'' said Octavio Marenzi, CEO of Boston-based research firm Celent. ``Goldman took that weakness and turned it to its own advantage.''
Viniar said the firm's so-called unfunded commitments to provide leveraged loans on takeovers fell to $27 billion at the end of the fourth quarter from $42 billion at the end of the previous period.
Goldman sold or canceled $16 billion of the loan commitments during the fourth quarter, funded $9 billion of the commitments and made $10 billion of new commitments, Viniar said on a conference call with journalists today.
Equity trading revenue climbed 22 percent to $2.59 billion. The S&P 500 Index ended November just marginally higher than it started, while the U.K.'s FTSE 100 gained and Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 5.1 percent. Average daily trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange fell 8.7 percent during the period from a year earlier, and rose 10.5 percent on the Nasdaq.
Global Alpha
Investment-banking revenue rose 47 percent to $1.97 billion. Financial advisory revenue, derived mainly from counseling clients on mergers and acquisitions, climbed 98 percent to $1.24 billion.
Goldman, the No. 1 adviser in worldwide announced mergers and acquisitions for the seventh consecutive year, arranged $417.9 billion of takeovers completed during the fourth quarter, more than double a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The company's backlog of pending merger assignments fell during the fourth quarter, Viniar said.
The firm, which ranks second this year behind Zurich-based UBS in managing global equity offerings, arranged $18 billion of equity sales during the quarter, up from $16.7 billion a year earlier, Bloomberg data show.
Revenue from asset management increased 25 percent to $1.17 billion. The firm is starting three new hedge funds, expanding its so-called alternative investment offerings.
Investors pulled about $3 billion from Goldman's so-called quantitative hedge funds during the quarter, Viniar said. About half of the withdrawals were from the Global Alpha fund, he said.
``Redemptions in the first quarter from what we can see will be even greater than that, and again about half of that is going to be Global Alpha,'' Viniar said.
Japan Cuts Growth Forecast as Law Change Causes Housing Slump
Dec. 19 -- Japan's government slashed its economic growth forecast by a third after stricter rules for obtaining building permits caused housing starts to plummet to a four-decade low.
The world's second-biggest economy will probably grow 1.3 percent in the year ending March 31 and 2 percent in the following 12 months, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today. It had previously expected a 2.1 percent expansion for this year.
Economists cut growth forecasts in the past two months as housing investment was the biggest drag on third-quarter gross domestic product. The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey last week showed large manufacturers expect business conditions to deteriorate to the lowest level in three years by next March.
The building slowdown will erase 0.6 percentage point from growth, the Cabinet Office said. That's the equivalent of about 3 trillion yen ($26 billion) of GDP, or the same size as Sri Lanka's economy, Bloomberg data show.
The plunge in housing starts was caused by a building- permit logjam after the government changed rules in response to a 2005 scandal in which an architect skimped on steel in dozens of hotels and condominiums.
The instruction manual describing the permit process was issued six weeks after the rules were introduced on June 20. Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Hiroko Ota this week called the lapse a ``case of bad preparation.''
Pent-up demand will help housing investment rebound next fiscal year, adding 0.4 percentage point to growth, the Cabinet Office said. The government yesterday said housing construction ``has almost stopped decreasing.''
Japan may escape from deflation next fiscal year, today's report showed. The GDP deflator, a broad measure of price changes, will rise for the first time in 11 years in the period starting April 1, the government said.
The Cabinet Office predicted, incorrectly, in each of the past two years that the GDP deflator would rise.
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Table 1: FY2006 FY2007 FY2008
Actual Forecast Forecast
------------------------------------------------------------
Real GDP 2.3% 1.3% 2.0%
Consumer Spending 1.7% 1.3% 1.3%
Housing Investment 0.2% -12.7% 9.0%
Capital Investment 5.6% 0.9% 3.3%
Inventories* 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
Exports, Goods & Services 8.2% 7.1% 5.2%
Imports, Goods & Services 3.0% 1.5% 3.6%
Domestic Demand* 1.5% 0.5% 1.7%
Private Demand* 1.9% 0.4% 1.7%
Public Demand* -0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Foreign Demand* 0.8% 0.9% 0.4%
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Table 2: FY2006 FY2007 FY2008
Actual Forecast Forecast
------------------------------------------------------------
Nominal GDP 1.6% 0.8% 2.1%
Consumer Spending 1.3% 1.0% 1.2%
Housing Investment 2.4% -11.2% 10.4%
Capital Investment 6.2% 1.7% 3.9%
Inventories* 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
Exports, Goods & Services 12.0% 9.1% 6.5%
Imports, Goods & Services 12.2% 8.0% 5.2%
Domestic Demand* 1.5% 0.5% 1.8%
Private Demand* 2.0% 0.4% 1.8%
Public Demand* -0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Foreign Demand* 0.1% 0.3% 0.3%
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Table 3: FY2006 FY2007 FY2008
Actual Forecast Forecast
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Prices
Corporate Goods Price Index 2.1% 1.8% 0.6%
Consumer Price Index 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
GDP Deflator -0.7% -0.5% 0.1%
Unemployment (Rate in %) 4.1% 3.9% 3.8%
Industrial Production 4.8% 2.4% 2.2%
Balance of Payments (in trillions of yen)
Trade & Services Income 8.2 9.7 11.2
Trade Income 10.5 12.1 13.2
Exports 73.7 80.2 85.4
Imports 63.2 68.1 72.1
Current Account 21.2 25.1 26.1
percent of Nominal GDP 4.1% 4.9% 4.9%
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