CARACAS --President Hugo Chávez's backers and foes hinted at victory Sunday night in a crucial vote that would deepen his vision of ''21st Century Socialism'' by changing Venezuela's Constitution and fortify his role as Latin America's most powerful leftist leader in the post-Castro era.
Vice President Jorge Rodríguez acknowledged the results were ''tight'' after Chávez supporters staged ''victory'' motorcades through the capital of this nation of 27 million people, which provides 10 percent of U.S. oil imports.
No official results had been announced as of early Sunday night. While initially downcast, Chávez's opponents expressed growing confidence as the evening wore on that they would emerge victorious. The president, meanwhile, postponed a speech first set for 7 p.m.
Adding to the state of uncertainty, retired Gen. Raúl Isaías Baduel, once one of Chavez's closest collaborators but now a harsh critic of the proposed changes, planned to appear on TV later Sunday to claim victory for the NO side, according to opposition sources. The former defense minister is believed to be well respected within the armed forces.
A victory would give Chávez near-absolute political power in Venezuela and allow him to continue nationalizing privately-owned companies, giving money to the poor, aiding political allies in Latin America, strengthening his alliance with Communist Cuba and sharpening his conflict with Washington -- even though his country is the fourth biggest supplier of oil to the United States.
Chávez and his political allies already control Venezuela's Congress, the Supreme Court, the judicial system and 20 out of 22 governorships.
But a loss would be a severe blow to Chávez and his harshly anti-American and pro-Cuban plans not only for Venezuela but for much of Latin America.
After the polls closed it appeared that perhaps only half of the registered voters turned out for the referendum. Many Chávez opponents had called on voters to stay home to avoid legitimizing a result that they believed was preordained.
The low turnout left opposition leaders shaking their heads.
''It's inexplicable,'' said Carlos Guillermo Arocha, a leader of the Primero Justicia political party, adding that he expected Chávez to further radicalize his leftist-populist policies if he indeed won the election.
One possible solace for Chávez opponents was that he notched his smallest victory margin since he first won the presidency in 1998. Since then, he has won three presidential elections, a 1999 national referendum to rewrite the Constitution and a 2004 recall attempt, never with less than 56 percent.
The government reported arresting 45 people on election-related charges, but, despite a smattering of complaints by the opposition, the election appeared to have been conducted without major controversy.
Low-income Venezuelans said they expected that Chávez, with a victory, would continue showering government benefits on them.
Reynaldo Tarazona, a 53-year-old taxi driver, said he is studying English and tourism for free at the Bolivarian University in Caracas established by Chávez.
''Chávez is not only for the poor in Venezuela but for making the entire world more just for the poor,'' Tarazona said after voting for the proposed changes.
Chávez has spent billions of Venezuela's oil income in aid aimed at helping the poor throughout Latin America and at building political support from other regional leaders.
Many better-off Venezuelans said that passage of the proposed changes would leave them contemplating whether to join tens of thousands of others who have left the country in recent years rather than be governed by Chávez.
José Rodríguez, a 48-year-old official with the Caracas Lions baseball team, said he already had an appointment Monday at the U.S. Embassy to apply for a visa to move to South Florida. He is also investigating the possibility of moving with his family to Panama.
''Chávez wants communism, the same system they have in Cuba'' Rodríguez said after voting in the upscale Chacao neighborhood. ``Private property isn't safe.''
In fact, Chávez hasn't fully spelled out what he means by ``21st Century Socialism.''
He has nationalized the main phone company and a major utility and forced foreign oil companies to give the government a majority stake in their oil fields or leave the country -- as ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips have chosen to do -- even as the economy boomed on record oil prices.
Among the most hotly debated changes were those that would allow Chávez to seek unlimited re-election -- he said Friday that he wants to remain president until 2050, when he would be 95 -- and declare Venezuela a ''Socialist'' nation while giving Chávez direct control over the country's $30 billion in foreign reserves.
Since becoming president, Chávez has said he wants to direct more of Venezuela's oil revenues to the poor, and the proposed amendments would continue that. Proposed changes would reduce the work week to 36 hours, allow maids, taxi drivers and other members of the informal economy to begin collecting pensions and strengthen anti-discrimination laws.
Chávez used the full machinery of government to push for a YES vote in the referendum, including blanketing the state TV and radio channels with YES ads. He had muzzled the main opposition television channel, RCTV, earlier this year by not renewing its operating license.
But poor people in Venezuela say he has improved their lives.
The poverty rate in Venezuela declined from 49 percent in 1999, when Chávez took office, to 30 percent in 2006, the U.N. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean reported last month.
Opponents of the referendum included the Catholic Church hierarchy, the country's biggest business group, human rights groups, Baduel and Chávez's ex-wife Marisabel Rodríguez and former Gen. Raúl Isaías Baduel, who was Chávez's defense minister until mid-year.
Chávez turned up the volume in the final days of the campaign, attacking Colombian President Alvaro Uribe as a ''lackey'' of the United States, threatening to expel CNN reporters from Venezuela, demanding that King Juan Carlos of Spain apologize to him for a recent outburst in which the Spaniard told Chávez to ''shut up'' and threatening to expel two big Spanish banks from Venezuela.
He also threatened to cut off oil exports to the U.S., but he couldn't do that for long since Venezuela's economy depends on this income.
Jorge Quiroga, who heads the main opposition party in Bolivia to Chávez ally President Evo Morales, came to Venezuela to serve as an election observer.
''Chávez is the biggest talent in the history of Latin America,'' said Quiroga. ``You have to give him credit. He never rests.''
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