The Democrats

The campaign grinds on

Hillary Clinton has few weapons to hand to win the Democratic nomination for president

“I THINK it would be a great thing if we had an election year where you had two people who loved this country.” So said a former president, Bill Clinton, on Friday March 21st, apparently suggesting that Barack Obama, the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, is insufficiently patriotic.

Such an attack seems unusually mischievous, even for a former president who is desperate to bolster the chances of his wife, Hillary Clinton, in the nomination. She has enjoyed a good spell recently, shifting momentum away from Mr Obama, the result of doggedness and hard work on her part and of a scandal of sorts that lingers over him. But the prospect of a Clinton returning to the White House remains dim. Mr Obama has a commanding lead over Mrs Clinton in votes, in Democratic delegates and in states won. He is beating her, and his leads are most unlikely to be overturned in the few Democratic primaries that remain.

Last week Mrs Clinton did get some fleeting hope. Mr Obama's preacher and “spiritual adviser”, Jeremiah Wright, had been taped saying some grossly anti-American and paranoid things. Mr Obama responded with a long and thoughtful meditation on race and America that tickled the country's elites, further proving his eloquence and touch. It remains unclear, however, how the rank-and-file might have been affected or how this might influence the forthcoming primaries.

Working-class white voters may be Mrs Clinton's only hope. Her goal is to convince them, for example with appeals to patriotism, to back her in sufficient numbers for her to gather her own momentum. Then she might persuade the party's elite “superdelegates” that she is better placed to defeat the Republican John McCain, who is running as a national-security candidate.

Mrs Clinton cannot easily sustain the Wright controversy, although she may be sorely tempted to do so. Her problem is that the Clinton campaign has already been accused of race-baiting, a particularly painful charge given Mr Clinton’s previous appeal to black voters. The Clintons must be wary of alienating an important chunk of the electorate ahead of November's contest with Mr McCain. If she could somehow secure the nomination it might prove a sour victory, with many Democratic voters staying home for the general election.

For now, although it may return to haunt him, Mr Obama seems to be moving on from the Wright controversy, with polls suggesting that he has not lost much of his lead over Mrs Clinton.

So her options are limited. Two big states voted for her earlier this year, but were disqualified: Florida and Michigan. Both held their primaries too early by Democratic rules, and have had their delegates barred from the convention. Her campaign (she won both states) has tried to get them seated, but that now looks unlikely. Nor does it seem likely that the votes will be held again.

Without those two states she must hope to get enough momentum in the coming primaries to persuade superdelegates that she is best placed to beat Mr McMain. The first test is still several weeks away and she must rack up a big win in Pennsylvania on April 22nd to have any chance. In addition she needs to achieve big victory margins in the few states to vote after that. Even then she is unlikely to be able to claim a victory in total votes won.

Another idea, floated by her team recently, is to stress that the states she has won have more electoral votes in the November poll than the states won by Mr Obama. But this is not particularly convincing. Perhaps Mrs Clinton would be better placed to compete in such states with Mr McCain over national security, but many Democrats would be expected to stick to their nominee and Mr Obama can point out that he has appealed to independent voters successfully.

And Mr Obama, too, is claiming a small victory. Last week Bill Richardson, a Hispanic and himself a former presidential candidate, endorsed Mr Obama. This will not have a big impact: Hispanics are unlikely to break en masse with him. But his tilt for Mr Obama may help to open doors for superdelegates. Mr Richardson was close to Mr Clinton, serving as ambassador to the United Nations and as energy secretary. Yet he has abandoned the Clintons for what he says is the unifying message of Mr Obama. If other superdelegates come to believe that Mr Obama is a unifier and Mrs Clinton is a dividing force, the young senator from Illinois may prove stronger than ever.