The Palin Puzzle

This isn't the way to win in 2012.

The political class is flummoxed by Sarah Palin's decision to quit as Alaska Governor, and understandably so. Giving up on an executive job a year and a half early isn't the best way to persuade voters you're ready for the more demanding rigors and scrutiny of the White House.

Mrs. Palin's explanation on Friday was hardly clear or persuasive, wandering from the taxpayer expense of various ethics probes, to the self-indulgence of lame-duck Governors who serve out their terms, to the fact that she and her family had concluded she can better serve the people out of public office. Some Alaskans, including many of her admirers, can be forgiven if they conclude she bugged out when the going got rough.

Perhaps she is finished with political life, and who could blame her? Since John McCain chose her as his running mate after a mere two years as Governor, Democrats and their media running mates have given her the kind of mauling they always reserve for conservative Republicans who aren't part of the Beltway club. At least the press corps left Dan Quayle's children out of his trashing. For whatever reason, Mrs. Palin seems in particular to drive feminist writers into condescending fits. If she wants to devote herself during the next few years to raising her family, writing a book and making money to pay her legal and medical bills, those are understandable choices.

The more troubling question is whether the 45-year-old is also calculating that this is the best way for her to seek the White House in 2012. If so, she's probably mistaken. Her main claim on executive experience is the Alaskan state house, and giving it up early diminishes an otherwise solid record, especially in challenging GOP elites, and reneges on a promise to voters. Millions of conservatives admire her reform credentials and her personal story, but to win the White House she needs to persuade millions of others, including independents, that she has the policy depth and personal judgment to be President.

Our advice after the election last year was that Mrs. Palin spend two years out of the limelight, tending to her Alaskan duties and studying national issues. Last year's campaign showed she didn't understand economics any better than Mr. McCain -- a very low bar -- and her responses on too many issues sounded like half-baked spin rather than sincere judgments that she herself had reached or understood. No doubt Mr. McCain's backbiting campaign team didn't help her -- we hope the next nominee bars them all -- but every candidate is ultimately responsible for her own performance.

Ronald Reagan changed the national debate, and for three decades Republicans have been able to utter bromides about "liberals" and "big government" and get away with it. After the financial meltdown and long recession, those days are over. The GOP nominee in 2012 will need an explanation for how we got into this mess that goes beyond mimicking Democrats about "Wall Street greed," as well as an agenda for how to restore U.S. prosperity. President Obama will take credit for any recovery, however sluggish, and Republicans will need more than a critical riff about spending and budget deficits.

On the evidence so far, Mrs. Palin isn't yet up to that task. Whether she will be in two years, or six or 10, will depend on whether she's willing to do the hard policy work that can add substance to her natural political talents.