The Russia/America summit

Barack, Dmitry—and (offstage) Vladimir

A meeting of pragmatism, not warmth—with potential trouble still ahead

THE body language said it all. When Barack Obama arrived in Moscow for his first summit with the Russian president on July 6th, he sat on the edge of his chair, his eyes fixed on his host, Dmitry Medvedev. Mr Medvedev sat back, revealing a mix of reserve and polite attention to what Mr Obama had to offer.

This scene reflected Russia’s general response to Mr Obama. America made the first approach and offered to “reset” the relationship. Although suspicious of Mr Obama’s intentions, Moscow nevertheless did not want to miss a chance. As Moskovsky Komsomolets, a tabloid, put it: “Why should we make a step towards Obama? Not least, because it is in our interest. Having won a war against Georgia, we confirmed our status as a great power, but ended up in isolation. Of course, we could live like this. But why not stop this isolation without ceding past achievements?”

Stiff with security, Moscow displayed no sign of the Obamamania seen in other capitals. Muscovites did not line up to catch a glimpse of the man. One national television channel led the evening news with Michael Jackson’s funeral, not Mr Obama’s visit. A poll suggests that 36% of Russians are indifferent to Mr Obama; only 12% feel sympathy towards him.

But Mr Obama came to Moscow for business, not love. He managed to do as much as could have been expected. The two sides agreed in principle to cut their nuclear arsenals by roughly a quarter in seven years. For Mr Obama this was part of a vision of a non-nuclear world. For the Russians, it was an opportunity to preserve some semblance of nuclear parity. Given that Russia’s stockpile is ageing fast, it will not have to do much to reach the target. The Russians and Americans also agreed to renew military co-operation and work on non-proliferation. A dozen American aircraft a day will fly through Russian airspace carrying troops and equipment to Afghanistan. This will save time and money, but also make Russia’s southern border more secure. “They are real things, not fluff,” says Michael McFaul, Mr Obama’s top Russia adviser.

Yet the bigger test will come over Iran, missile-defence plans (see article) and countries in the former Soviet space. The improvement in relations is so fragile that it may not withstand the strain of potential Western action in Iran. Russia does not want Iran to have nuclear weapons, but nor does it want to lose influence for America’s sake. “Russia does not want to fight with America, but it is not prepared to make concessions to America either. Moscow’s general policy is one of disengagement,” says Ivan Safranchuk, an adviser on disarmament and foreign relations.

Mr Obama’s speech at the New Economic School in Moscow was an attempt to engage Russian society without trying to lecture it. He addressed the more neuralgic elements in Russia’s self-perception. He praised the Russian people for ending the cold war. He insisted that America wanted “a strong, peaceful and prosperous Russia”. But he stressed that “pursuit of power is no longer a zero-sum game” and that Georgia and Ukraine were entitled to their sovereignty. He talked up the rule of law and freedom of speech “because they are moral, but also because they work”. And he added pointedly that “governments which serve their own people survive and thrive. Governments which serve only their own power do not.”

Mr Obama’s speech was broadcast live by only one cable TV channel with limited reach. The main channels highlighted his endorsement of a “great Russia” and managed to turn his comments about “dominating and demonising other countries”, a reference to Russia’s behaviour to its former republics, into a case of American self-criticism. Even students remained largely indifferent to Mr Obama’s speech. “I take what he said on board, but I am not going jump to a conclusion,” said one.

Such a reaction reflects the culture of cynicism and nationalism that has flourished in Russia in recent years. But it is also the result of Russian disillusionment with America. Vladimir Putin, Mr Medvedev’s prime minister, spent much of his two-hour breakfast with Mr Obama venting Russia’s grievances over America’s policy. He blamed George Bush for letting Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia’s president, twist American support into a green light for a war. But he allowed his talks with Mr Obama to be twisted by his own side. According to Yury Ushakov, Mr Putin’s chief foreign-policy adviser, “President Obama pledged to consider the regional significance of these countries for us.”

This line was amplified by Russia’s main TV channel, which presented it as America’s concession and Russia’s victory. It quoted Vyacheslav Nikonov, Russia’s main pro-Kremlin commentator, as saying: “All the sanctions that were imposed against Russia after the war in August 2008 are in the past. This shows that America realises the necessity to work together with the Russian Federation. America has understood what was going on last August. Today nobody in Washington would shake Saakashvili’s hand.”

Mr Obama has few illusions about Mr Putin. “I found him tough, smart, shrewd, very unsentimental, very pragmatic. And on areas where we disagree, like Georgia, I don’t anticipate a meeting of minds anytime soon.” By the same token, Mr Obama said he trusted Mr Medvedev and found him “straightforward and professional”.

Taking Mr Medvedev seriously and declaring his interest in “dealing directly” with him may bolster Mr Medvedev’s status. But playing up the distinction between Mr Putin and Mr Medvedev could also be counterproductive. The differences between the two are often notional. Mr Medvedev nominated Mr Putin’s chief ideologue, Vladislav Surkov, to a bilateral commission on civil society. And Mr Putin may yet resume the presidency. His recent grandstanding looks suspiciously like the start of a presidential campaign.

Mr McFaul concludes that “we did not solve everything in two days. That would be impossible. But I think we came a long way in developing both a relationship that advances our national interest with the government and laying out a philosophy about foreign policy.”

In his latest stunt, after meeting Mr Obama, Mr Putin swapped his business suit for a black sports jacket and trousers and appeared at a gathering of Russia’s leather-clad bikers, the “Night Wolves”. After a long discussion with a tattooed giant called “Surgeon” and a boast about his own Bond-style motorbike wheelies, Mr Putin waved them off to Sebastopol, a port in Crimea, Ukraine, armed with a Russian tricolour.