Japan's feeble opposition

Fixed on the past

Japan's once-formidable Liberal Democrats pick yet another uninspiring leader

ANYONE hoping for a new era of vigorous two-party politics in Japan will be disappointed by the choice of Sadakazu Tanigaki to head the vanquished Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). If anything, the 64-year-old former finance minister is even more mild-mannered than Yukio Hatoyama, the prime minister he is supposed to battle on the parliamentary stage.

Mr Tanigaki won 300 of the 499 votes cast in the LDP’s internal election on Monday September 28th. The election was a chance for the party to show that it intends to rebuild itself after losing power a month ago for only the second time in 54 years. But by picking Mr Tanigaki over younger guns with ambitions to shake up the party’s gerontocracy, the LDP shows that its eyes are still fixed on the past—and has not learned many lessons from defeat. “We need to return to the LDP’s origins—that politics is for the people,” Mr Tanigaki said.

The internal election is a stunning reminder of how fast the LDP’s fortunes have sunk. During more than half a century in power, leading the LDP used to mean leading Japan. Mr Tanigaki is only the second party boss who has not been prime minister at the same time. But he follows three nondescript predecessors—Shinzo Abe, Yasuo Fukuda and Taro Aso—who, as prime ministers, their deafness to the concerns of the electorate helped to seal the LDP’s fate.

Mr Tanigaki vows to lead the party to victory in upper-house elections next summer, but that looks unlikely. No one of higher calibre emerged to lead the LDP because prospects in that election are now so gloomy that the party president is almost bound to be forced to resign afterwards.

In the August 30th election the LDP lost 181 seats, accumulating a paltry tally of 119 compared with 300 held by Mr Hatoyama’s Democratic Party of Japan. Unless the DPJ’s fortunes deteriorate sharply, it will probably hold a majority in both houses after the upper-house elections, which would drive the LDP into the political wilderness.

It would be a pity for Japan if the Liberal Democrats gave up without a fight, however. The DPJ is untested in office, and its ministers range from pro-union activists to fiscal hawks; there is plenty of room for vigorous policy debate, especially over the budget, that a lively opposition party could help to stimulate. The election also gave the Japanese people their first real taste of voter power at the national level. Having learned at last that they can “kick out the bums”, it would be a shame if there were no credible opposition to turn to; that was one of the main drawbacks of the LDP’s near-eternity in office.

So far the new government has got off to a reasonably trouble-free start. Apart from a few questionable gestures, such as one to suspend debt payments by small and medium businesses to banks, cabinet ministers have not appeared to be the left-wing firebrands some had feared. Mr Hatoyama has won praise abroad—though there have been murmurs of concern from business and unions at home—for seeking a leading role for Japan in the cutting of carbon emissions. He also had a smooth first meeting with Barack Obama in America last week.

But there are plenty of problems that could blight his government’s popularity in the months to come. Economic recovery is by no means assured and the government’s desire to cut back on what it calls wasteful aspects of previous fiscal-stimulus efforts could jeopardise whatever growth there is. So could a strong yen. Meanwhile, the threat of deflation is increasing. In August consumer prices excluding food fell by 2.4% from a year earlier, the biggest decline since records began in 1971.

Mr Tanigaki hardly looks like the man to capitalise on such problems. He was a competent, somewhat hawkish, finance minister under the former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, but he is better known for his gentleness than his guts. His favourite motto relates to the Japanese concept of wa, or harmony, which he hopes to use to heal the wounds in his party. In that sense, he resembles Mr Hatoyama, who repeatedly talks about his belief in a fuzzy concept call yuai, or fraternity. Every so often both men will stand against each other on the floor of the Diet, or parliament. Brace for debate with all the cut and thrust of a paper-napkin fight.