Ukraine's presidential election

Oranges and lemons

A run-off is likely between Viktor Yanukovich and Yulia Tymoshenko

FANCY buying a vote in Ukraine’s presidential election on January 17th? Go to a new website called “sell your vote” ( www.prodaygolos.com.ua). “I will sell two or three votes,” reads one post. “I’ve sold mine for 500 hryvna,” reads another. When last checked, the website advertised some 4,500 votes for sale across Ukraine, at an average price of 913 hryvna ($114). This number could hardly swing the election result, but is enough to reflect the public’s alienation and disillusionment with their politicians.

Five years after the “orange revolution”, which brought thousands of protesters on to the snowy streets of Kiev, many would rather vote against all the candidates—or just not turn up at all. Kiev is once again covered in snow, but the only noise in this election is that of pensioners banging pots and pans in front of government buildings to demand better living standards. The gloomy mood even inspired one small-town opportunist in western Ukraine to change his name to Protyvsikh (Against-all). He is now one of 18 registered presidential candidates.

Trust in the incumbent, Viktor Yushchenko, who swept into the presidency after the orange revolution, is now so low that his poll rating is under 5%. Many voters who backed him five years ago feel let down by his broken promises and failure to govern.

Even though they are tired of the same old faces, Ukrainians seem likely once again to have to choose between two familiar front-runners: the former and current prime ministers, Viktor Yanukovich and Yulia Tymoshenko (each has served as prime minister twice). Mr Yanukovich leads in the polls by around ten points. But since no candidate will get a majority in the first round, a run-off between the top two will be held on February 7th.

The explanation of Mr Yanukovich’s relatively high rating has little to do with his intellectual capacity, his integrity or his record. Indeed, some 55% of Ukrainians view him negatively, according to the American-financed International Foundation for Electoral Systems. Many are put off by his thuggish manner, the obvious difficulty he has in formulating his thoughts and his two youthful criminal convictions. His role as the Russian-backed villain in the 2004 election seems to be the least of his problems, though his roots in the Russian-speaking east of Ukraine and his proximity to business tycoons there make him seem more alien in the west. “The thought of this man representing Ukraine is embarrassing,” says one businessman.

But so bitter is the disappointment in the orange team, so strong the craving for stability which (at least visually) he represents and so deep the suspicion, rational or otherwise, of Ms Tymoshenko that even in western Ukraine some voters may back Mr Yanukovich in the second round. This is partly Mr Yushchenko’s work—in many ways, he has done more for Mr Yanukovich’s campaign than Mr Yanukovich himself. Indeed, destroying Ms Tymoshenko, his erstwhile orange colleague, seems now to be Mr Yushchenko’s only goal. Whereas most of Mr Yushchenko’s former allies have agreed to back Ms Tymoshenko, he is implicitly backing Mr Yanukovich. He spent much of his final press conference on January 12th attacking Ms Tymoshenko, earning him fulsome praise from Mr Yanukovich’s camp. As the incumbent prime minister, Ms Tymoshenko’s rating has also been dented by Ukraine’s severe economic crisis.

Surprises cannot be ruled out: many voters are still undecided. Serhiy Tyhypko, a banker who (like Mr Yushchenko) served as head of the central bank and who also ran Mr Yanukovich’s presidential campaign in 2004, seems likely to come third. Mr Tyhypko, who once posed for the cover of a men’s health magazine, could be the kingmaker in the second round.

Whoever wins will preside over a country saddled with a sick economy, staggering corruption, business oligarchs’ vested interests and a constitutional deadlock that does not define clearly the responsibilities of the president and prime minister. If Ms Tymoshenko wins, she may be able to buy enough deputies from Mr Yanukovich’s Party of Regions to avoid a fresh parliamentary election. If it is Mr Yanukovich, a parliamentary election in a few months’ time is almost inevitable. Either way, this presidential election is unlikely to yield the things that Ukrainians want most: political stability, responsible policies and economic security. It may just produce more business for vote sellers.