A Revolutionary Idea in Mexico

A Revolutionary Idea in Mexico: Don't Have One This Century

With Precedent of Revolts in 1810 and 1910, Nation Girds for 2010; 'It's Like a Tradition'

NICHOLAS CASEY

MEXICO CITY—Something is scaring politicians here. It's the number 10.

The arrival of 2010 is spurring looks backwards and fears of history repeating itself. That's because in the past two centuries, there have been revolutions in Mexico—both in years ending in 10.

Time for Another Mexican Revolution?

See reports of the events of 1910 and 1810, as well as some recent warning headlines.

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"Here in Mexico, it's like a tradition that happens once every 100 years," says Jaime Abundis, a Mexican historian.

First there was 1810, when an insurgent priest named Miguel Hidalgo gave a nighttime battle cry that sent thousands of Mexicans into the streets to oust the Spaniards. Then came 1910, the year that was supposed to be the government's crowning centennial. Parades were held, banquets given—and within a month, the Mexican Revolution began.

The numerology isn't fringe thinking in Mexico. It's regularly discussed in the nation's biggest newspapers and by politicians. On a recent morning, leading newspaper El Universal awoke its readers with three foreboding opinion columns on the matter: "The Fear of 2010," "The Impending Revolution" and "2010: Third Revolution?"

"In matters historical, sometimes numbers say more than words," wrote one author in a piece titled "1810, 1910, 2010," that appeared on New Year's Day.

Pancho Villa

This kind of talk has become so common that the imagined revolution even has a name already: the estallido social, or the "social explosion." Nearly every day, Mexican politicians can be heard warning darkly of its coming.

On Jan. 3, José Guadalupe Martín, the Catholic archbishop of the industrial city of León, warned of a likely estallido social among the poorer classes angered by nation's stagnant economy. Two days later, Cruz López Aguilar, the vocal director of Mexico's main farmers organization offered his prediction: "2010 is a year that invites insurrection…there are conditions for an estallido social."

Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the former Mexico City mayor who lost a tight presidential race in 2006, says the estallido social has "already arrived" in Mexico. "There have been in the last three years nearly 15,000 assassinations," he said in an interview, referring to the rising death toll in Mexico's war against powerful drug cartels. It's a battle many Mexicans, including Mr. López Obrador, say the government is losing.

Recent events have only added fuel to the fire. Last fall, the government leaked word that in the southeastern state of Chiapas, agents had found a cache of 500 grenades, along with machine guns, rifles and thousands of rounds, squirreled away on a ranch. The intended plan, according to authorities: a mobilization of rebel forces to overthrow the state government on the bicentennial ceremonies in September 2010.

Diego Osorno is a 29-year-old journalist for Mexican daily newspaper Milenio who also writes a blog that chronicles subversive elements of Mexico, from former drug traffickers to anarchists. "Without a doubt this is a very, very important moment for the guerrillas," he said. "They're going to take advantage of the mysticism of the year. Expect big propaganda displays."

Library of Congress

In 1810, an insurgent priest named Miguel Hidalgo gave a nighttime battle cry that sent thousands of Mexicans into the streets to oust the Spaniards. Above, a portrait of Father Hidalgo published around the end of the 19th century.

Mr. Osorno, author of a book on insurgent movements which bore a chapter titled "See You in 2010," says there are likely to be a rash of small-scale incidents, citing an explosion at two bank branches outside Mexico City on New Year's Day that merely damaged windows. But he doesn't expect a full-blown repeat of 1910 and 1810.

"It'll take its own form on a smaller scale….More like the Weathermen," he said, referring to the radical left organization north of the border that staged bombings on U.S. government buildings and aided the jailbreak of counterculture-icon Timothy Leary in 1970.

Naturally, imagined revolutions have their naysayers. "What you're hearing is pure fantasy," said Carlos Montemayor, a Mexican essayist, who once helped set up negotiations between guerrilla groups and the government. "There is neither a historical nor sociological basis that the estallido social will come on a certain date."

Some skeptics of the estallido social are in the ranks of the guerrilla groups themselves. The Popular Revolutionary Army, a militia organization that is occasionally active in a few southern Mexican states, complains that the whole scare was cooked up by the government.

"Politicians of all stripes have used the so-called estallido social as political blackmail, in some cases to get more armaments and in others simply to obtain them," wrote an anonymous author in the guerrilla group's occasional newsletter "Insurgent Magazine."

Even if it's not from one of the big-name guerrilla groups, Mr. Osorno said he'll be looking for signs of unrest in Mexico this year. And they might not be obvious until retrospect, he says.

Take the 1910 Mexican Revolution, for example. History books say it began on the Texas border just a month after Mexico celebrated the republic's centenary. But hundreds of miles south in the capital, few seemed concerned that year about the distant insurrection led by Francisco I. Madero, a spiritualist who supposedly received the go-ahead for his rebellion from ghosts during a séance.

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Associated Press

Emiliano Zapata was instrumental in the Mexican Revolution of 1910

The real bloodshed didn't break out until Mr. Madero was assassinated in 1913, leading to the rise of tumultuous figures like the sombrero-wearing Emiliano Zapata and Pancho Villa, a highway-bandit-turned-national-hero.

"It wasn't until then [1913] that you realized what was going on was actually a revolution," says Mr. Osorno.

Ernesto Nava Villa, the last surviving son of Pancho Villa, said more rebellion could be possible. "If it happened twice already, who is to say if it will happen again?" he asked recently. "The people have their ways."

If the people have their way again, Mr. Nava Villa won't live to see it. The 94-year-old former carpenter died just before New Year's Day.

Then again, perhaps nothing will happen in 2010 here.

"That would be just as historic, maybe more," Mr. Osorno says. "It would be the first time that 100 years passed in Mexico and there was no revolution."