Wednesday, April 7, 2010

U.S., European Stocks, Commodities Decline

U.S., European Stocks, Commodities Decline as Greek Bonds Slump

By Michael P. Regan and Whitney Kisling

April 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. and European stocks fell, led by energy producers as oil dropped, while the premium investors demand to hold Greek bonds widened to the most since 1998 on speculation the nation may default. Equities pared losses and Treasuries rallied as an auction of 10-year notes drew a yield of 3.9 percent.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.1 percent at 1:09 p.m. in New York, retreating from the highest level since September 2008. The MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations’ stocks slipped less than 0.1 percent. Oil dropped from an 18- month high on a bigger-than-forecast increase in inventories. Greece’s 10-year bond yields rose 0.19 percentage point to 7.18 percent and the yield premium to German debt widened to 4.06 percentage points, the most since before the euro was introduced in 1999.

Greece is more likely to default than all the European Union’s members in eastern Europe, including three that needed International Monetary Fund-led bailouts, credit default swaps show. Investors may demand a yield of as much as 7.25 percent to buy Greek 10-year dollar-denominated bonds, according to Paris- based Axa Investment Managers, which oversees about $669 billion.

“This issue with Greece is still hanging out there,” said Michael Mullaney, who helps manage $9 billion at Fiduciary Trust Co. in Boston. “The debt crisis that’s happening right now in Euroland is causing some consternation with investors.”

S&P 500 energy companies snapped a seven-day stretch of gains, falling 0.6 percent as a group. Occidental Petroleum Corp. lost 1.7 percent and Exxon Mobil Corp. slipped 0.7 percent. The S&P 500 retreated from its highest level in 18 months as a 76 percent rally since March 2009 spurred concern equities have risen too far, too fast.

‘Short-Term Losses’

More than three-quarters of stocks in the S&P 500 were “overbought” as of the April 5 close, according to Bespoke Investment Group LLC, which identified shares that are at least one standard deviation above their 50-day moving average. That reading is the highest since the bull market began in March 2009 and indicates equities may see “short-term losses,” Harrison, New York-based Bespoke said in a note to clients.

Crude oil slid 0.6 percent to $86.28 a barrel in New York trading. U.S. supplies rose 1.98 million barrels to 356.2 million in the week ended April 2, the Energy Department said today in a weekly report. Inventories were forecast to climb by 1.35 million barrels, according to the median of 14 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

The euro weakened 0.3 percent against the dollar, trading near its lowest level in almost two weeks, after a report showed the economy of the 16 nations sharing the currency failed to grow in the fourth quarter. The euro fell against 12 of 16 major counterparts.

Dollar Greek Bonds

Greece’s government plans to start marketing dollar- denominated bonds to U.S. investors this month. Credit-default swaps on five-year debt from Latvia, whose BB foreign-currency rating at S&P is four levels below investment-grade Greek debt, dropped below Greek default swaps yesterday. Greece is now more likely to default than all the EU’s eastern members, two of which are junk rated, CDS markets indicate.

Latvia, Hungary and Romania needed IMF-led bailouts at the height of the global crisis to avert defaults. A technical team from the IMF is in Athens today, though the Greek government maintains there is no need for an international loan. Greek bonds declined yesterday on concern an EU-led rescue package may falter.

“A default may be ultimately unavoidable,” said Stephen Jen, managing director at BlueGold Capital Management LLP. “It’s an increasingly difficult proposition for the creditors to expect full repayment.”

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.3 percent as basic resources companies dropped. Declines were limited as Allied Irish Banks Plc surged 14 percent in Dublin after Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc recommended buying the shares.

Emerging Markets

Emerging-market stocks bucked the trend, rising for a ninth day for their longest rally since October. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index increased 0.4 percent and has rallied 5.4 percent since March 25.

The Taiwan dollar led gains in higher-yielding currencies, rising 0.3 percent against the U.S. currency, after the Federal Reserve indicated yesterday that U.S. interest rates will stay near record lows. Yuan forwards advanced on speculation China will let its currency appreciate.

Fed minutes showed the U.S. is likely to keep rates on hold, nurturing the recovery in the world’s biggest economy, at the same time as Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner prods China to revalue the yuan. Policy makers are considering allowing the yuan to trade against the ruble, the South Korean won and the Malaysian ringgit, according to an official at the China Foreign Exchange Trade System, as the nation diversifies its foreign reserves from the dollar.

Among emerging markets, Pakistan’s Karachi 100 Index climbed 1 percent while Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index and the Stock Exchange of Thailand Index added 0.6 percent.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.8 percent for a fifth day of gains, its longest winning streak since July, as the Bank of Japan said the recovery in the world’s second-largest economy is intact and Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Razak said growth may exceed forecasts this year. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. gained 2.7 percent in Tokyo.

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