U.S. Retail Sales Rise Above Forecast as Consumers Recover
A shopper carries merchandise at a J.C. Penney store at Simon Property Group Inc.'s Great Lakes Mall in Mentor, Ohio. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg
Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers rose more than forecast in November as holiday shopping got under way, a sign consumers will play a bigger role in the recovery. Purchases increased 0.8 percent, following a 1.7 percent gain in October that was larger than previously estimated, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The November producer price index also increased 0.8 percent from the prior month after a 0.4 percent rise, according to a separate Labor Department report. Bloomberg's Michael McKee reports. (Source: Bloomberg)
Dec. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Chris Varvares, president of Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, discuss the U.S. economy, savings rate and financial system. They talk with Carol Massar and Matt Miller on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." (Source: Bloomberg)
Sales at U.S. retailers rose more than forecast in November as holiday shopping got under way, a sign consumers will play a bigger role in the recovery.
Purchases increased 0.8 percent, following a 1.7 percent gain in October that was larger than previously estimated, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 0.6 percent rise. Excluding autos, gasoline and building materials, which are the figures used to calculate gross domestic product, sales climbed 0.9 percent, the most since August.
Customers snapped up discounts at chains like Target Corp. and Macy’s Inc. during the Thanksgiving weekend, the traditional kick-off to the busiest sales season of the year. Even as the world’s largest economy gains momentum heading into 2011, high unemployment and the risk of a prolonged drop in prices remain concerns for Federal Reserve policy makers meeting today.
The holiday-shopping “season got off to a really solid start,” said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York, who correctly forecast the increase in sales. “There’s no question this will be the strongest quarter for consumer spending since before the recession. The economy has pretty good momentum going into the new year.”
Wholesale Prices
A report from the Labor Department showed wholesale costs rose in November by the most in eight months, led by higher prices for gasoline, heating oil and fruit. The producer price index increased 0.8 percent from the prior month after a 0.4 percent rise. Excluding more volatile food and energy costs, the so-called core measure posted the smallest year-over-year gain in five months.
Stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index higher for a sixth day, as the reports eased concern over the outlook for spending after Best Buy Co. reported earnings that trailed analysts’ estimates. The S&P 500 rose 0.2 percent to 1,243.01 at 9:39 a.m. in New York. Treasury securities fell, pushing the yield on the 10-year benchmark note up to 3.34 percent from 3.28 percent late yesterday.
The projected increase in retail sales was based on the median of 71 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Economists’ forecasts ranged from increases of 0.2 percent to 1.5 percent. The Commerce Department revised the October reading up from a 1.2 percent gain previously reported.
Consumers ‘On Fire’
“Consumers are on fire relative to expectations in the last three months,” said Brian Jones, an economist at Societe Generale in New York. The “revisions are equally important. Typically, when the revisions start moving in one direction, it’s a clear sign of a pickup or a turning point.”
Eight of 13 major categories showed increases last month. Sales at general merchandise stores climbed 1.3 percent, the most since October 2009, and purchases at non-store retailers, which include Internet merchants, advanced 2.1 percent, the biggest gain of the year.
Electronics and appliances stores were among retailers that showed weakness last month as sales fell 0.6 percent. Best Buy, the world’s largest consumer-electronics retailer, reported a 4.4 percent decline in third-quarter profit that missed analysts’ estimates as U.S. sales dropped more than expected. The Richfield, Minnesota-based company said today sales at stores open for at least 14 months sank 5 percent on weaker demand for televisions and entertainment products.
Using Discounts
Retailers began cutting prices earlier in November than the past few years and continued through Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. Sales at stores open at least a year climbed by the most in eight months from November 2009, industry reports showed.
Target and Costco Wholesale Corp. led the sales gains for discounters last month, while teen retailer Abercrombie & Fitch Co. and department stores Macy’s and J.C. Penney Co. also posted better-than-forecast increases.
Purchases are broadening out beyond holiday gifts and clothing. Home Depot Inc., the world’s largest home-improvement retailer, lifted its full-year profit forecast on stronger fourth-quarter demand for plumbing and electrical items and Christmas trees.
“As we look at November into December, we see strength across the store,” Chief Financial Officer Carol Tome said Dec. 8 by telephone from an analysts’ meeting in Boston. The Atlanta- based company had a “terrific Black Friday.”
Raising Forecasts
The National Retail Federation has forecast the November- December holiday sales gain will be the biggest since 2006. A Bloomberg survey taken Dec. 2 to Dec. 8 showed economists raised 2011 projections for consumer purchases, the biggest part of the economy, to 2.6 percent from 2.3 percent estimated last month.
Today, the International Council of Shopping Centers revised its November-December holiday-season sales forecast up by 0.5 percentage point to a range of 3.5 percent to 4 percent, citing “the strong November performance and promising trends in early December.”
While recent gains in consumer sentiment bode well for retail sales, the unemployment rate, which in November reached a seven-month high of 9.8 percent, remains a hurdle.
Fed policy makers, who meet today for the final time this year, may reiterate the strategy to buy an additional $600 billion of Treasuries through June to try to trim joblessness and avert deflation, or an extended drop in prices.
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